255 comments on Hurricane Gustav, Energy Infrastructure and Updated Damage Models -- Thread #4 (Updated 8/31 23:00 EDT)
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255 comments on Hurricane Gustav, Energy Infrastructure and Updated Damage Models -- Thread #4 (Updated 8/31 23:00 EDT)
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GAIA Host Collective
Jerome...you hit on something we haven't much discussed here with Gustav. We are in a worse situation financial situation now than when Katrina hit. The ability to finance the rebuilding in the wake of Gustav is going to be much more difficult now that credit is harder to come by (personal, commercial, municipal, etc.).
Some are not going to rebuild I think due to the new stipulations on loan terms or people/companies may just find out that they won't qualify for new loans.
The big petro companies will rebuild, but that will slice into profits more and more.
It's ironic that the hit will be taken by some of the disaster-capitalist vultures who swept up the pieces after Katrina, buying up what they thought was prime real estate.
http://www.powells.com/biblio/18-9780805079838-0
"People still reeling from catastrophe were being hit again, this time with economic 'shock treatment,' losing their land and homes to rapid-fire corporate makeovers."
Whatever we do, we must make sure we do it with borrowed money.
You talk about the economy affecting the reconstruction. What about the other way, what effect might have the hurricane on the already weakened economy, or it may be the first piece to start the domino fall.
Also, insurance coverage is different (lesser) than what it was when Katrina hit. Insurance companies realized how much they could lose if a big storm hit, and how difficult it was to tell wind from water damage. According to Insurance may not cover as much under Gustav, deductibles of 2% to 5% of the home value are now mandatory. When Katrina hit, deductibles were much smaller.
Also many policies have a wind exclusion. (The always did have a water exclusion.) If people with the wind exclusion want wind coverage, they can only buy it from the state-sponsored insurer, Louisiana Citizens Property Insurance Corporation. Coverage from Citizens is only on a depreciated value basis, and does not include additional living expenses.
With the lesser insurance coverage available, people will have to dig more deeply into their own pockets to pay for damages. This is almost certain to have indirect financial impacts. People are already having difficulty paying their mortgages. With all of the payments required under deductibles, and the possibility of being without a job and having no coverage for additional living expenses, even more folks will default on mortgages. This will make the plight of banks in the area even worse than they were before.
Long term, the prospect of multiple hurricanes hitting the area with little insurance coverage available would seem likely to depress real estate values. Thus, even homeowners who can make it through the immediate problems are likely to experience a loss when they sell their home. This will have a further adverse impact on banks.
I am a network admin for an insurance defense law firm in Mississippi which handled a large part of our state’s Katrina related insurance defense. People, often rightfully, get emotional about the way the large insurance concerns handle the aftermath of a massive disaster. It’s a numbers game for the insurers, and they are obviously in the business to make a profit. What I’ve found fascinating is the whole Scruggs debacle with severe corruption on the defense side of a large class action legal battle. When people are suffering, everyone wants to see aid (in this case, reconstruction aid) delivered as quickly as possible. However, the Scruggs incident shows exactly what the insurance companies fear and why much of the legal wrangling takes so long. Scruggs represented a large number of innocent clients, and their interests were severely hurt due to bad representation.
The chaos following a major natural disaster is rife for corruption. It attracts unscrupulous elements of all sorts, and we witnessed the misuse and sometimes embezzlement of government funds in the devastation following Katrina. For right or wrong, we will see the process of insurance settlements take a period of years in many cases. The government’s ability to provide large scale infrastructure renewal is very limited in the short term, too.
Many in the nation object to footing the tax bill for bailing out people who intentionally rebuild in disaster-prone areas. Some called for NOLA to be abandoned. If the storms are becoming more frequent, and if our coastal cities are subjected to cycles of destruction more often than every 10 or 20 years; I believe our system will passively cause the abandonment of high risk areas like New Orleans. Congress won’t vote to abandon or relocate NOLA until long after it has been effectively abandoned by our reconstruction processes working on a slower cyclical scale than the storms do. With 20 year (I don’t have exact figures at hand) cycles of destruction on the Mississippi Gulf Coast, the system functioned to rebuild the diverse interests. With 10 or even 5 years cycles of destruction, many elements of society won’t have the opportunity to exist in the high risk areas.
I would mark this post up 10 times if the software allowed.
Best wishes for eliminating 100% of the fraud in NOLA.
And what of the fraud in Iraq? What of the fraud getting us into Iraq? The frauds constantly committed BY the insurance companies with unscrupulous practices?
What of the fraud committed by abandoning insureds because they actually use the insurance?
Shush...
Cheers
But this seems beneficial to the rest of us as people will tend not to try to live where they ought not try to live.
When Uncle Sam chips in to pay for storm damage of people who live near rivers and coasts this amounts to more prudent people paying for the decisions of less prudent people. I hate it when that happens. The less of it the better.