Re: Extreme and risky action the only way to tackle global warming, say scientists

Geo-engineering is just another version of the same ideology which got us in this mess in the first place. In many instances, today's engineering approaches are attempts to solve problems caused by yesterday's engineering solutions. Instead of thinking the mess can be solved by some technological solution after some critical point is passed, why not just cut back on greenhouse emissions BEFORE they reach dangerous levels?

E. Swanson

Yes, I think we can file this one under "Build a bigger stone head."

How about a bigger hat for that head?

From a Industrial design perspective that could be the solution and I suggest a manHATtan project size effort is in order.

Because the economy is more important than sustaining the ecosystems on which all life depends. Well, for the moment at least.
And off course it is someone else who will have to do the cutting back.

_Dog, I see it playing out this way: We will not reach anything approaching a global consensus as to the nature of the problem or its likely effects. No one is going to risk spending $$$ that they feel might not be needed or which might subtract from the bottom line. Publicly-held companies live and die on their quarterly numbers.

Geo-engineering, however, presents myriad opportunites for someone to make money. Hence, it will likely be done even if the results are of limited efficacy (or even counter-productive).

Do I think we're screwed? Yes. Does that mean we can't profit during the descent? No.

Publicly-held companies live and die on their quarterly numbers.

I don't worry about that, after all there are enough people claiming that money is evil, and will therefore be offering a large percentage of their pay to research institutions, helping to solve the problem.

Like for example "PeakOil Tarzan" here, who is sorely in need of a demonstration that he considers more than "the bottom line". He's going to, today, move to a smaller home, not sell but destroy his car, ... like he demands of the rest of us.

I'm tempted to tell you to go boff yourself, but I'll refrain. Let me rephrase what I said:

Corporations selfish. Tarzan work for corporation. Tarzan's paycheck depend on corporation make money. PeakOil Tarzan selfish. Therefore, PeakOil Tarzan is part of problem.

There, is that more to your liking???

Like I said, we're screwed. But still get to drive fast car on road to hell!!!

great explanation
you and 2 billion other tarzans, for whom their very survival depends on corporations making money.

my parents have a spot to run to wtshtf, but it's not at all after my linking. still have to buy a little more land, still have to buy some sh!t, and still have to eat. so i'll take the bus to work tommorow, buy some chinese manufactured goods, some food from across the world and hope that someone will fix this mess, because i sure as hell am not giving away my lifestyle willfuly

ps: my lifestyle include biking, economic light bulbs and preparing for some bad events, but i'm not using less energy that could mean comfort for me and my family, just so that peakoiltarzan can ride his car one more time. i'll grab what i can, planet be damned

i'll grab what i can, planet be damned

And so it shall be.

Obviously you've hit the nail on the head : that's the real ideology of "Peakoil Tarzan". He's no different at all from the corporations he so "despises" (except when they make him stuff obviously), but he's jealous of their apparent budgets, and the attention they (but really their "stuff", say, oh the iphone) keeps getting.

Do I think we're screwed? Yes. Does that mean we can't profit during the descent? No.

Oh yeah, and I'm sure someone could have figured out a way to bottle their farts and sell them at enormous profit to the passengers of the Titanic as it was sinking. Ladies and gents, step right up and get your emergency self contained breathing mixture, right? I mean you have to admit it would still be better than trying to breathe cold water.

You know we won't cut back on greenhouse emissions. Growth is considered imperative, especially in places like China and India. In the U.S., regardless of who is elected, the central paradigm is still growth, despite calls for decreasing emissions. It is too late. We can already circumnavigate the North Pole.

...why not just cut back on greenhouse emissions BEFORE they reach dangerous levels?

Because that would require coordinated global action on a scale that is EXTREMELY unlikely.

Since many of us agree that this will not happen, shouldn't we might as well consider these geoengineering fixes?

Personally I am more sympathetic to the view that we should pull back and try to find a more sustainable model of civilization that doesn't increase global warming.

If that doesn't happen in TIME though -- and I highly doubt that it will -- our only hope of species survival may be to shoot barrages of heat-blocking dust into the sky (or some such idea), even if it does end up having major undesirable climatic side effects.

In fact it seems almost inevitable that some country or consortium will try something like this as the effects of warming grow more and more dire. The cost of some such program might be quite small compared to the costs imposed by further warming.

I used to think "Mad Max" was the worst scenario. But with all this talk of geoengineering maybe the worst scenario is "Highlander II": all the resource depletion of a Mad Max scenario combined with incredibly dodgy accents and the "narrative flow" of events in the the world becoming frankly incomprehensible. (Still at least it's not yet at the Zardoz level where we're all wandering around in red man-nappies.)

Sorry, couldn't resist.

Not to worry, apparently rotor-ships can whiten the clouds and reduce temperature!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article4648680.ece
Ghost ship fleet could be a silver lining in clouds of climate change - Times Online

The ship design sounds fascinating, though - must check out some of the old, pre 1926 designs.
EDIT: Here is a modern rotor-ship being built:
http://www.marinebuzz.com/2008/08/08/e-ship-1-with-sailing-rotors-to-red...

End Edit.

It appears to be weird and whacky day at 'The Times' - here is a power system for Japan:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article4648732.ece

I especially liked the part about taking sunlight into the more nutrient-rich deep by losing about 94% of it (given the stated three-year time frame it would need to start with current technology) in Rube Goldberg contraptions of solar panels, electronic controllers, cables, and LEDs, all highly susceptible to saltwater corrosion. Oh, and said contraptions are to be installed in a place that can be struck by ten typhoons in the same season. Right. Rube Goldberg would have been pleased.

Then again, who am I to question? After all, any interaction between any process whatsoever on the one hand, and grant applications and political corruption on the other, becomes incomprehensible instantly... how else did we in the USA come by the insanity of corn ethanol?

taking sunlight into the more nutrient-rich deep

Another planetary life-support system begging to be improved by the hand of man, no doubt. After all, the oceans aren't doing anything useful.

It would be equally sensible to hand out AKs and 500 rounds to everyone on the planet. Put down a pile of food here and there. Drop random weapons caches with other interesting gear. Bayonets for a touch of color.

No, silly me. It would be more sensible to hand out the AKs. Better those than nukes, plaques or biowar.

Let the game begin.

cfm in Gray, ME

I know, I know!

How about we put a giant aluminized mylar parasol up at the L1 point? You know, where the SOHO observatory is now.

/near-sarcanol

Yes and we continue with denial, delusion and deception.
Before we can mitigate our problems of AGW and PO we MUST be honest with ourselves.

Those that buy a hybrid car and announce they are assisting the environment and mitigating peak oil are guilty of all three. The same applies to the manufacturers and retailers.
Similarly those that advocate the use of more electricity, like for electric trains and other transport and claim that it mitigates PO and AGW need to get truthful with themselves.

In this era of peak production, supply and use of FF's just switching to an alternative energy or just using less will not do.
Unless we can sequester the co2 we WOULD have sent into the biosphere after we adopted our personal mitigation we are wasting our time.
As in using less fuel, unless we can prevent someone else using what we have not used, then the exercise is probably moot, as any fall in demand would lower price and enable an increased use in other areas, for instance air travel, transport and the military.
If on the other hand we had begun our mitigation thirty or forty years ago we MAY have been able to spread the depletion and co2 build up over a larger time span. That of course again, is dependent on business and personal use not increasing in other areas to take advantage of extra supply.

IMO power down, really is/was the correct and likely the only answer.

This is interesting.........http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/?area=&lang=eng

OFF-TOPIC: I was looking for a post I made with links to ice sheets melting, but couldn't find it, so am inserting here.

This is the info I originally had in mind. Finally found it. While the Laurentide melted and caused a bit of a cold spell in Europe by slowing or halting the thermohaline exchange, this little fellow in Europe melted even faster, if memory serves.

Abstract: Multidecadal ocean variability and NW European ice sheet surges during the last deglaciation

A multiproxy paleoceanographic record from the Atlantic margin off the British Isles reveals in unprecedented detail discharges of icebergs and meltwater in response to sea surface temperature increases across the last deglaciation....
The strategic location of our sediment core suggests a sensitive and rapid response of ice sheets in NW Europe to transient increases in thermohaline heat transport.

Not sure what all this means, but it sounds bad.
Last glacial European Ice Sheet variability – cause and effect illustrated by upper ocean temperature and salinity records.
Abstract:

High resolution Mg/Ca analyses of G. bulloides (Gb) and N. pachyderma (sin., Nps)provide quantitative sea surface (SST) and thermocline (Nps depth range) temperature records. Paired with oxygen isotopes they allow δ18O surface water (δ18Osw)and salinity to be derived. Ice rafting from the EIS occurred following both warm and cold pulses in SST. Surging during cold surface conditions occurred with a 2-4 kyr frequency, while precursory IRD events apparently responded to SST warming of 2-4ºC. Freshening of surface waters associated with these European ice rafting events isrecorded by lightening of up to 3% ingδ8Osw, while ∆δ18O (Gb-Nps) and ∆T (surface and thermocline depth) suggest strong thermal and salinity gradients developed during these phases. An anti-phase relationship between thermocline temperature and further suggests that surface freshening caused the thermocline to shoal following EIS discharge. These episodes of well developed upper ocean stratification appear to have reduced ventilation of intermediate waters, as represented by coevalbenthic decreases.

Cheers

I mentioned a new study, in a previous DB, about the amount of carbon in the permafrost. Here is a new article on the study. (Note that this is only the permafrost and does not include the methane being released from the Arctic Sea sea floor.) :

Thawing Permafrost Likely To Boost Global Warming, New Assessment Concludes

...carbon dioxide emissions from microbial decomposition of organic carbon in thawing permafrost could amount to roughly half those resulting from global land-use change during this century...

The study, by Edward A. G. Schuur of the University of Florida and an international team of coauthors, more than doubles previous estimates of the amount of carbon stored in the permafrost: the new figure is equivalent to twice the total amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide...

Schuur and colleagues' new assessment indicates that thawing is likely to dominate known countervailing trends.

This is not just cave-man history.
If you intend to hang around for the next twenty years, you can watch it happen with your own eyes...
http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2008/06/25/2283071.htm

...Important safety tip - choose an observation point more than six metres above current sea level!
;-)

Excellent, frightening find... but, really, what I'm expecting... 3 to 5 this century would be no surprise at all.

Anthropological CO2 : a danger.
Permafrost and sea floor Methane: a warning.
Moving or protecting every coastal city in the world - Priceless.

Cheers

We already have a geoengineered system of artificial clouds: jet contrails. We put a significant amount of energy into doing this, and - oops - they'll be mostly going away soon since the economic model won't continue to work. "Global Dimming" is scary.

The only answer is fewer humans sooner or fewer humans later. Fewer humans sooner would actually be best for the planet, as well as for humans in the long term. However that happens, if it does, it won't come from enlightenment or taking a vote on it.

Re: Extreme and risky action the only way to tackle global warming, say scientists

This is why most of us on the "right" side are so sceptical of global warming "solutions". It seems that politicians look at it as an extra source of revenue ie "carbon credits", Marxist/"greenies" look at it as a way for them to control other people, researchers look at it as an excuse to propose the most outrageous non workable solution that will result in significant funding and prestige and economists look at it as the next ponzi scheme ie "carbon credits" again. None of which will make a difference in the global temperature. "Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,Signifying nothing."

Starting basic would be nice, something everyone can embrace, something like......clean water and better solar panels. Face it, the global warming solutions are a bigger toilet than the subprime lending. Atleast the houses actually got built and provide scrap copper down the road.

Definitely a bigger stonehead. Sounds like someone wants alot of funding for research.

I'd probably qualify as a pinko-commie librul.

But I don't really think I have much of a desire to "control other people"

But I sure would like to have a planet that could continue to support my life. I don't really have anywhere else to go.

Apparently for many on the "right side" though this simple desire just cuts too much into their "pursuit of happiness".

I think the point about starting basic is the key though - it's becoming clear to most that the models are underestimating the changes we are witnessing and the time for addressing things through basic changes is long gone. We can no longer afford to make that time consuming march down the field toward the end zone - the only play left in the play book is the Hail Mary. For years and decades the "tree huggers" and "greens" have been berated and marginalized whenever they attempted to offer "basic" solutions that everyone could embrace that might have the cumulative impact of lowering our overall footprint on the planet. The people who I've ever met that have been involved in "green" causes never have this super-secret agenda implied by the right to derail the US, the economy, or any of the sacred "freedoms" so important to the right. They usually just enjoy the planet and want to protect some aspect of it (be it a small park or global ecosystems) so that others get a chance to appreciate it as well.

What you say makes sense... But I'm afraid that this most sensible course of action--- to take action to cut GHGE before it is too late---is no longer possible, because it is already too late.

Based on what I have read and seen about the issue, I believe we have already passed the "point of no return" and even if we could cut GHGE to 0 immediately, the earth is going to continue to heat up because of the green house gasses already in the atmosphere, the fact that by reducing CO2 we also will be reducing "global dimming" at the same time, and various positive feedback loops.

It definitely looks like we're past the point of no return on alot of fronts, ie too late to fix it too early to scrap everything.

I worry about some of these solutions gaining traction, some of these proposals are downright scary due to Unintended Consequences. The models don't account for everything, especially human greed in twisting a cause to suit their own purposes. in my mind, doing nothing and jumping off the cliff might be the best way to handle this. I would prefer to take my chances with mother nature, but I like to avoid having to deal with the others.

Of course, I'm on the "right wing/libertarian" side of this one, and therefore extemely skeptical of any large "mandatory" solution implemented nationally. A call for national sacrifice (ala Boone Pickents) would be a better way to handle it, but our current group of pols (both parties) has no credibility since they will just waste more than we can save. Its hard enough to get them to show up and vote, let alone lead by example.

I agree, the "Unintended Consequences" of geo engineering are very scary. What's even more scary is that things may turn out to be so bad that we'll be ready to consider anything.

What I fear is that we have basically already screwed up the planet to such an extent that it will continue moving inexorably to becoming uninhabitable, even if we *could* stop GHGE completely right this day. In other words, the damage has been done, it is irreversable, the only reason why it doesn't look so bad yet, is because it takes a while for the full extent of the damage we did to the atmosphere (and other parts of our ecosystem) have done to fully take effect.

If this is true, then we will sooner, or later, reach a point where we literally have nothing left to loose.

On the bright side... maybe deliberate geo engineering is not more scary than the accidental "geo engineering" we are already doing by pumping all that CO2 into the atmosphere.

At least with geo engineering there would be a goal (probably with unpleasant side effects). Right now we are doing a massive geo-engineering experiment with absolutely no goal at all, and in full awareness of the nasty side effects it probably has. How can it really get much worse than that?

How about the Nuclear Winter solution.Solves Global Warming and the Population Problem in one hit?

The models don't account for everything, especially human greed in twisting a cause to suit their own purposes. .... A call for national sacrifice (ala Boone Pickents) would be a better way to handle it,

Like how Ole Boone is pimping the right of way for wind which will then allow him to pump the aquifer water to big Texas cities?
(VS the cities getting sear water and de-salting it)

It's amazing the scientists are so ill informed. They talk about co2 concentrations reaching 650ppm.
Where on earth are the fossil fuels going to come from to do that?

I've got an idea - why don't you show how they are wrong.

VS just handwaving.

"Where on earth are the fossil fuels going to come from to do that?"

They probably base their numbers on WAGS from the EIA or other agencies like them. The EIA and others project significant increases in the use of petroleum, natural gas, coal etc in the decades ahead...

garbage in, garbage out

They may or may not be ill informed. Normally they try to nail down one thing at a time. You don't cite a reference so I'll guess that you are referring to a paper about what might happen if CO2 reaches 650ppm. That is a legitimate thing to research, whether or not it is possible for CO2 to reach that level. If the paper actually asserted that CO2 will reach 650ppm then they would certainly support their argument with testable data. By the way, there are other paths through which CO2 levels could increase such as deforestation, melting and decay of permafrost.