190 comments on Hurricane Gustav, Landfall, Energy Infrastructure and Updated Damage Models -- Thread #5 (Updated 9/1 21:00 EDT)
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190 comments on Hurricane Gustav, Landfall, Energy Infrastructure and Updated Damage Models -- Thread #5 (Updated 9/1 21:00 EDT)
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I still don't believe that, because in the end the facts would rule.
However, whether it is government, or large hedge fund or whatever, energy markets are illiquid today, which means some millions in margin can really push them around. And they are down sharply. RBOB and Heating oil are down well below where they were BEFORE we even knew we had a hurricane...(and low gasoline inventories going into today???)
Gustav weakened after Cuba and never regained its potential - we dodged a bullet, so it IS rational to have some energy sell-off short term, until actual damages are known. This is now 6th or 7th storm in a row when energy has sold off...It's lulling us into complacency....;-)
The DOE also announced this morning that they're ready to tap the SPR if needed, so that has a psychological effect. Before Gustav, we were in a bearish trend anyway. Gustav's storm surge is a lot less than Katrina's, so the selloff makes sense. It'll be interesting to see if the $110 price floor will be breached this week.
Louisiana Seeks Strategic Petroleum Reserve Release
Good afternoon, folks. Long time since I've posted, but like always, I remain obsessively addicted to TOD and always appreciate the perspective and insight this community is able to share. That being the case, I have a question for any who is up to aswer it: It is my understanding that the SPR contains crude oil only, not distilled products such as gasoline and diesel. That being the case, I don't quite understand how the release of that stock would be of any benefit in the next week or so, if indeed, it turns out that there has been significant refinery damage (not known at present). If the gasoline stations in southern Louisiana have to wait for shipments of refined products to arrive from other regions or countries, I would think they may be waiting a while. Am I wrong?
Dred
Nope, precisely right. :) See westexas' and memmel's comments in this thread.
But the mayor might not know that much. He may just think the SPR is there in case of shortages and there is a shortage in LA, therefore it is time to release it.
Actually he's the guvnur. My guess is he is ignorant of the facts. Of course I think it highly likely that some SPR oil will be released, assuming there is more working refinery capability than crude to supply them. I don't think anyone could argue that a short term release to cover a temprary weather related shortfall is a misuse of the SPR. But even if absolutely no physical damage happened, the shutdown, evacuate, evaluate, startup delays will mean product shortfalls are in the pipeline.
My read is a quid pro quo to GWB & Cheney.
LA Governor calls for SPR release just before election, (unlike evil, irresponsible Democrats who alos called for pre-election SPR releases). GWB wisely does so, in excess of any production shortfall.
Alan
The US will have to import more gasoline and diesel also of course because of high diesel prices world wide we where exporting a significant amount of diesel so our customers will also have to find alternative sources.
Now despite the current price situation for crude oil this new demand for imports of finished products is not provided by the Tooth Fairy, Santa Clause or the Easter Bunny. In fact no mythical characters are generally involved in oil production and refining operations.
However SPR releases to refineries that are not in operation is as close to mythical as one can get.
Its not pleasant to look behind the curtain and realize how the world really works.
Care to speculate on what sort of dislocation this will case in shipping resources? Will there be enough tankers in Europe (or elsewhere) ready to re-deloy to the US market? What is the cost to send an empty tanker overseas to return to the US with refined products?
I've got no idea its going to be a rush to the spot market obviously.
In my opinion the big deal is the US diesel exports that are lost this is going to throw a serious money wrench in the works.
Given it looks like we probably will have more hurricanes in the gulf unless we get really lucky this event may be enough to cause a serious global diesel shortage. Given that diesel is critical for agriculture movement of goods and services etc etc we may be in for some short and long term blow back from this one hurricane. Further out it puts a lot of pressure on heating oil production just in time for winter.
In particular this could well be the event that sends Pakistan into serious turmoil. Attempts to subsidize diesel will have no effect since we now simply don't have enough diesel in the world right at harvest time.
Of course the US is myopic and only cares about gasoline prices.
Home heating oil is of course also distillate, like diesel. The evidence seems to be that people have been waiting to get their tanks filled. (In June, US distillate consumption was down 9.7% from a year ago, according to EIA data). It seems like this disruption is going to make it more difficult to find enough home heating oil to fill all of the tanks.
Is it clear that people are "waiting" rather than just not needing it due to a warm winter (07-08) or more frugal use due to hgher prices last winter? It seems that both our winter and our summer have been milder this year than most (so. cal.), although we don't have a lot to do with heating oil in this part of the world..
-d
How the world works and how the markets work can be completely different ;).
That being said, I went long today after the selloff.