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346 comments on Energy Vision 2050 - part I
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346 comments on Energy Vision 2050 - part I
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There are a lot of unanswered questions about geothermal. "Don't count your chickens before they are hatched".
Charles, You can say the same thing for Nuclear energy. Some of the questions might be who is going to finance them and do you want one in your backyard. Yet the paper gives us nuclear at 37% of total energy. I do not see that happens particularly in a financially decimated world economy that seems to be occurring as we speak. The prospects for geothermal are much closer to reality that an explosion (pun intended) in nuclear power plant building. It is essentially a first world solution.
The uncertainties are of a different order for geothermal as it is a much more immature technology.
That assumes that you are talking about using it for really substantial power generation, which means hot dry rock.
A number of problems have been encountered, notably getting just the right amount of fractioning in the rock to allow the water to flow through to the well which extracts it, and that problem will be different for every field.
At present it also costs a fortune - that may change, but we are talking about uncertainties.
You also can't build a geothermal plant just anywhere, and practically speaking the areas where you can hope to build them are relatively limited.
Iceland seems to be at the leading edge for geothermal. It is one of many renewable energy resources that I think we need to develop in order to keep the electric grid functioning. It will be a different set of technologies for each locale. I really cannot see nuclear at 17% of world production. Financing, adequate cooling water coupled with climate change, containment building production capacity these are just the direct difficulties The energy problem needs many diffuse solutions based on local resources and needs, not a handful of concentrated one designed to keep the energy fat cats engorged.
I'd like one under my backyard (say, 500 feet or so down) because then I'd have a cheap source of low-grade heat to keep my house heated in winter and perhaps cooled in summer with an absorption chiller.
As for what kind, I think the USA could start with roughly 100 GW of molten fluoride reactors operating as thorium breeders. The initial fuel loads could be obtained from the plutonium in spent PWR fuel, eliminating it permanently. Small, standard-sized reactors could be cranked out in factories in pieces small enough to be moved through tunnels and assembled underground, where they would be isolated from the environment (and terrorist-proof) but still very close to customers for waste heat.
Once you have supplied the local need for electricity, heating fuel and low-grade industrial process heat without a gram of fossil fuel, the impact of shrinking supplies becomes much more remote.
And a big plus is that you can keep the fuel molten as the rock around the reactor also melts. Geeze, what do you think the thermal conductivity of rock is? Nuclear power plants need substantial cooling. Putting them in a hole makes no sense at all.
Chris