Bill, I love the story behind the Net Exports graph

NBC, Pickens Spar Over Foreign Oil Ad

The ad was rejected Tuesday, according to sources in the Pickens camp, for making unsubstantiated claims and for being "controversial." ... "The ad is not acceptable for air on the NBC network because the spots address controversial issues and it is our policy not to air ads addressing such issues on our network"...

Pickens won. They accepted the ad.

Pickens won.

Did he win, or did the fact there was money to pay for the ad win?

I agree, Pickens won. It is likely the Net Oil Exports will be accepted as a realistic view of Peak Oil.

I briefed 40 Senate staffs a few weeks ago. There is a lot of confusion about the fundamentals of oil. There was a lot of preconceived ideas about speculators and failure to drill. Most staffs were genuinely surprised by the Net Oil Export graph. My guess is that reality check will be OPEC's defense of $100 oil, oil inventory depletion caused by the hurricane season and the heating oil / diesel crisis.

Congressional staff confused about a technical topic?! I'm shocked... shocked I say! :) Sounds like you're doing good work there though.

I don't have any statistics, but from what I have seen the average age of congressional staff looks to be about 23.

They also don't tend to be the "nerdy" or "geeky" types who might have high level math, physics or engineering skills, but instead look like they are just out of a prelaw degree with very nice clothes and skin complexions.

But I haven't spent a lot of time in DC so others who have chime in and either back me up or slap me down.

I can tell you where the few and getting fewer by the year geeky nerdy math/physics/engineering type young (American citizen) people are: they are interning for the top U.S. defense industry corporations: Boeing, Lockheed-Martin, Raytheon, Northrup-Grumman, SAIC, General Dynamics, BAE, United Technologies, ITT, etc. and all their many, many sub-contractors. Let's not forget the National Labs, such as Sandia, Los Alamos, Oak Ridge, Savanna River, Battelle, Lawrence Livermore, Pacific National Labs, and more! Did I mention they are interning? Why yes I did! The American University system has this cozy relationship with the military-industrial complex to act as a huge farm team system to bring young people talented in science and math into the fold for life. Go poke around some of your favorite universities and see what their profs and grad students are working on for the the war machine. And, from a realist's viewpoint, why not? We have a nearly three-quarters of a TRILLION dollar defense budget, when you add up DOD, the continual off-the-budget Iraq/Afghanistan war supplementals, the National Intelligence/Reconnaissance/'spy' budgets, the Department of Homeland Security (a brand new bloated behemoth), and various let's say 'off-the-books' budgets. Where else in our sick-man's economy do you think young bright scientific/technical-minded kids will get rewarding, high-paying jobs with job security? They get to work with lasers, high-power electronics, explosives, all kinds of computer chips and circuit boards, and so much more! It is like a giant series of on-going science fairs: Want to make a pain beam to control crowds? Want to make a micro-miniature flying machine that looks and acts like a mechanical moth to spy on people? Meanwhile our civilian industries are out-sourcing their high-tech work to China and India (no security clearance issues there)...how many opportunities do you think exist for young tech folks in automobile production and civilian aircraft manufacturing and so forth? Yes, there are theoretical opportunities in solar, wind, bio-fuels, and alternative energy autos, but these areas are on their own, on starvation diets...they are not getting $750B/year in subsidies (yes, I know a lot of that goes to O&M, I was 20-year military, don't bother to tell me). Oh, did I forget the oil/gas/coal tax subsidies? So, if the USG were to devote real, significant resources into high-tech sustainability enterprises, then you would see talented young (and older) people working there and developing the technologies we need. But, if a candidate suggests that, he/she is accused of socialist industrial policy and scolded that government shouldn't be picking winners and losers in industry. Bull-****! The US has been engineering industrial policy for 50 years...the winners are (and will be) resource extraction and defense. And you, the taxpayer, pay for this, but don't you worry, most of the bill is paid by government securities that are bought by China (isn't that odd, aren't they our enemy? Remember when Rummy and Shrub were building up China as our next near-peer competitor before 9-11 interrupted? Remember the EP-3 USN plane that collided with the PRC fighter jet and the crew was held hostage for a week or so?). Now the Mil-Def-Politico-Religious-Academia complex is jumping for joy! We have >1B Islamic folks to fight in the world, Middle East oil to capture and defend, resource in Africa to capture and defend, the Chines Dragon, the resurgent Russian Bear, and Hugo Chavez to boot! There is currently a move afoot in repub circles to set a fixed floor of DoD spending as a fixed percentage of our GDP...guaranteed loot forever, and none of it for wind farms, solar cells, or 100 mpg cars. What is sad is that our warriors sneer that Russia would be a third-world country without its military...what is really sad is that, without our mild-defense complex, so would we!

We need to bring back the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA), for starters. We need to return to a science-based national governance construct and jettison the corporate kleptocracy-based, shrouded in 'faith-based', B.S. we have been experiencing.

Hey Bill thanks for the info could you comment on the crowd you briefed? Repubs,Dems,both. How clueless was the crowd? Agree the defense of $100 by Opec will be quite telling. I would guess 70/30 that OPEC will take action to defend the $100 price level. Would wonder at that point if the KSA needs to reduce "production" in order to preserve inventories or the production capacity of their fields. Guess is if production is cut we once again fail to answer the question of the KSA's ability to maintain production increases versus the ability to surge availability of oil from whatever sources.

I know nothing about this, but it seems to me that we are working in a pretty narrow pricing zone. We know that the American economy is feeling the strain of $100+ oil. Strain = demand destruction. We can also assume that a certain percentage of current projects require high prices to support continued development. No development, no increase in supply. Now, we have SA/OPEC making noises about defending the $100 mark. Where is this going?

I went to every Senate office but 3 of which about 40 took some time.

Preconceptions were somewhat consistent based on party. Oversimplified the Democrats believe the fault is with speculators. Republicans believe the fault is with lack of drilling. In the next 6 weeks we will be posting a number of papers on contingency plans that may help. Pickens plan is definitely helping.

Thanks again for your comments. If I have missed the motivation for your efforts in past DB's I apologize but what is the basis for your crusade? Are you a concerned citizen or are you acting on behalf of a organization? Are you working for Pick?

Thanks Leanan and DUH on me. I spaced on BJ he is the Jpods advocate.

I was trained a soldier and remain a concerned citizen. I believe that Peak Oil and Global Warming are civilization killers we can defeat by acting in advance of the crisis. I have been looking and working on possible solutions for about 12 years.

Like the Black Death of the 14th Century, the solution is basically local, 'kill the rats and do not live in your own waste.' They could not see micro organisms, we cannot see CO2. Plant a garden, end congestion, stop wasting energy moving a ton to move a person, stop wasting.

We Planned our problems. Our infrastructure was planned, taxed for and built. We built our infrastructure, we can build better. Here is a link for changing from a Planned Economy to Performance Standards. I have been working to re-tool transportation as part of my contribution.

hear! hear ! are you running for any office ?

Actually Bill James it's; 'Don't kill the rats'. During the plague of the 13th century they killed the rats thinking that would rid them of the plague, but that forced the fleas to find a new source of blood, which they found in people. The fleas had a certain contagion/bacteria in their guts, which got transferred into the blood stream during the bite causing the deadly illness.