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80 comments on UK Energy Flow Chart 2007

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DaveMart on September 4, 2008 - 10:01am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Thanks, Chris - very cheery!

Any guess as to when the breaking point is reached, and rolling power cuts hit?
Maybe percent guess, like this winter, 35%, 2009-10 45%, and whatever?
I realise that it is difficult to hazard any estimate, as there are so many variables, for instance Russian exports to the rest of Europe might fall due to their problems with coal, etc.

Still, it is clear that the situation is grave, and also that it is progressively worsening, so any insight into the rate at which it is getting worse would be great.

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Goood on September 5, 2008 - 3:51am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

For DaveMart
In the post 'Gore sets goal of 100% carbon-free electricity by 2020' back in July you asked about the cost of tidal power.
I asked Marine Current Turbines Limited http://www.marineturbines.com/ and received the following information from their Technical Director Peter Fraenkel:

SeaGen at Strangford which is a single prototype probably has a generating cost in the order of 20 to 30p/kWh depending on the assumptions used. We hope the next project, a 10.5MW SeaGen array planned for installation off Anglesey in N Wales in two to three years time, will generate at a cost of around 10 to 12p/kWh. Future larger projects to follow will generate at around 6 to 8p and longer-term for larger projects or on the highest energy locations, costs can fall to around 4p/kWh.
...
6 to 8p would be our medium term cost project for the UK – on sites with say 3m/s mean spring peak velocity and for projects of say 20 to 30MW. Later on with much larger projects and as yet unknown improvements the hope is that we might get costs down to the 4 to 6p level in present day money. Wind electricity for example costs about 25% of what it cost in the early 1980s in real terms today – we may not be able to achieve quite such a big reduction as we are already benefiting from some of the cost reductions gained by the wind industry, but a 50% cost reduction does not seem unreasonable.

For Strangford load fator is 48%
Trust this informs

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DaveMart on September 5, 2008 - 6:08am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thanks for the info.
That sounds around the same as I expected, with a probable 20 year or so path to gaining the experience to carry out cost reductions.

Those are also levelised costs, and you can get pretty much any answer you want out of those depending on the assumptions you feed in, and with new technology they always put a lot of faith in mass production to reduce costs.

That is not to knock the idea, but it is not going to solve our problems anytime soon.

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tonyw on September 5, 2008 - 11:59am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"6 to 8p would be our medium term cost project for the UK"

Assuming they can bring the cost down to this level I think that it is cheaper than current rates:-)

Does anybody know the equivalent current realistic rates for on-shore wind?

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DaveMart on September 5, 2008 - 8:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

They are talking levelised costs, which are always dependent on assumptions,which are rarely made explicit.
For resources like wind and nuclear power, interest rates are critical as most of the costs are up-front.

I tend to prefer installation costs, as they are less dependent on the assumptions made, but you have to allow for the fact that that is a bit unkind to renewables, as for nuclear power you have to allow for the long build times, and some fuel and maintenance costs ( maintenance has to be added to wind costs, and that can be substantial, especially for off-shore) and for coal or gas the fuel costs are the main cost.

So to answer your question, for on-shore wind the last survey which was done gave a cost of around £1million/MW of installed capacity, which does not include all connection costs or back up.
Since then material costs have risen substantially, and since most of the goods are imported the fall of sterling will have impacted costs.

This does not take account of wind's intermittency, so for on-shore you have around 22-28% of the installed capacity in actual output.

This effectively means that wind costs around £3 million/MW plus connection and backup at least to give a comparative figure to nuclear installed cost.

Off-shore is a disastrous £3 million/MW before you start allowing for intermittency.

Many of the more favourable figures quoted for wind are done after grants are added in - anything is cheap if you don't have to pay for it.

Here are the 2006 Government figures:
http://www.renewables-advisory-board.org.uk/vBulletin/attachment.php?s=0...

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peakoilBob on September 8, 2008 - 10:22pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hi Dave,

After reading your doomer post from the 8th Sept all I can say is that it's bad, and deteriorating fast.

I wrote you a long detailed reply but then I scared my self. Situation bad by winter 2010 is all I am willing to say.

The numbers are beginning to really scare me. It all just seams too unreal, too soon. The world goes on and as I write there is electricity, hot and cold running water and every thing is normal with the world and yet we have all seen numbers and time frames. Still it's hard to believe that a major crisis is on it's way.

I think a positive mental attitude will be a very important going forward. Also a sense of humor to stay sane and make the most of the time left.

Good luck to everyone and sorry for the rant.
Bob

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80 comments on UK Energy Flow Chart 2007

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