228 comments on DrumBeat: September 4, 2008
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228 comments on DrumBeat: September 4, 2008
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Re: GOP Emphasis on Freeing Ourselves From Our Dependency on Imported Oil
I have good news for the GOP.
We will probably be free of Mexican oil imports by 2012. We will probably be free of Norwegian and Russian oil imports by 2025. We will probably be free of Venezuelan oil imports by 2028. We will probably be free of Saudi oil imports by 2031.
Why?
Those are the dates that I expect to see the respective countries approaching zero net oil exports, although Venezuela is a bit of a wild card. In any case the GOP is telling us that we can maintain Business As Usual, as we replace oil imports with increased US oil production and other forms of energy. The Democrats really aren't any better on energy, but I think that they are at least trying to sell us less of an energy fantasy than the GOP is regarding domestic oil production.
Consider five of the (2005) top 10 net oil exporters (accounting for half of world net oil exports in 2005):
Saudi Arabia is showing a year over year increase in production--that will result in their net oil exports probably being at about 8.4 mbpd for 2008, versus their 2005 rate of 9.1 mbpd (our middle case has them approaching zero net oil exports in about 23 years).
Russia is showing lower production, with a sizable decline in oil exports (our middle case has them approaching zero net oil exports in about 17 years).
Norway is in terminal decline (our middle case has them approaching zero net oil exports in about 17 years).
Venezuela has shown an average decline of 100,000 bpd per year in net exports for 10 straight years. Extrapolating this out would have them approaching zero in about 20 years, although their bitumen production rate is a wild card.
Mexico’s net exports are crashing, in tandem with the collapse of what was the world’s second largest producing field. They will probably approach zero net oil exports in two to four years.
Palin's speech last night was short on specifics and long on fuzzy feel-good stuff:
Something for everyone. Enough even for hubby Todd to keep racing his "snow machine."
WT, a question (and sorry if I've missed it): Have you guys attempted to aggregate, by country, net exports to develop a global net export model?
Re: Global Net Export Model
My evaluation so far is that there are too many variables, especially regarding trying to model the unconventional production, e.g., Venezuela--which has great unconventional promise, but which has shown 10 years of declining net oil exports. I suspect that slowly increasing unconventional production in Venezuela will primarily serve to offset falling conventional production and increasing consumption.
My guess is that total world net oil exports in 2031 will be at 25% or less of the 2005 rate.
How about a net-export model for the State (some wish Nation) of Alaska?
I wasn't trying to be facetious. I see elsewhere on TOD that Prudhoe is in 11% decline, but I can't find anything highlighting AK as a whole. Also, what's going on with Alaskan consumption? What projects outside of ANWR are coming online? What are the prospects of Alaska increasing its ability to meet U.S. energy demand? What portion of Alaskan production is exported to non-U.S. markets?
Good questions. A major post on Alaska oil would be appreciated and timely. I am especially curious as to the non-US exports. IIRC, most initial North Slope oil went to Asia.
Peak Oil is so glaringly obvious to anyone who goes through the data, yet it seems there's nothing being done about it. Here in Australia I rarely here of any discussion on energy, and even if people believe it, they seem to think it won't be so bad, we'll just use trams and trains but still enjoy a high standard of living. Many people still don't know about the concept or are in denial. It's like a bad dream, almost surreal that this is happening. The moment that govts and people officially recognize peak, there will be a huge panic and a rush for alternatives, which will probably lead to exporting countries reducing their oil output for themselves and in the cost of alternatives soaring due to increased demand.
Most everyone will know soon enough -and even then there will be some deniers- so why not go with your beliefs and make yourself (and a few key friends) so stinking rich by gearing your portfolio to benefit that you really couldn't give a rats ass what is happening to everyone else 'cus your freeweelin' on your own island...
OK, that's a bit cras but if people don't want to learn and plan/hedge/insure a little for a possible future then they must live with the consequences.
Nick.