228 comments on DrumBeat: September 4, 2008
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228 comments on DrumBeat: September 4, 2008
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Re: Global Net Export Model
My evaluation so far is that there are too many variables, especially regarding trying to model the unconventional production, e.g., Venezuela--which has great unconventional promise, but which has shown 10 years of declining net oil exports. I suspect that slowly increasing unconventional production in Venezuela will primarily serve to offset falling conventional production and increasing consumption.
My guess is that total world net oil exports in 2031 will be at 25% or less of the 2005 rate.
How about a net-export model for the State (some wish Nation) of Alaska?
I wasn't trying to be facetious. I see elsewhere on TOD that Prudhoe is in 11% decline, but I can't find anything highlighting AK as a whole. Also, what's going on with Alaskan consumption? What projects outside of ANWR are coming online? What are the prospects of Alaska increasing its ability to meet U.S. energy demand? What portion of Alaskan production is exported to non-U.S. markets?
Good questions. A major post on Alaska oil would be appreciated and timely. I am especially curious as to the non-US exports. IIRC, most initial North Slope oil went to Asia.