<Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae bailout: Guess Who Wins The Oil Drum DrumBeat: September 8, 2008>

13 comments on Riders on the Storm: Stopping and Restarting Offshore Oil and Gas

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version

msbpodcast on September 7, 2008 - 10:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

I like Ike... But he hasn't been running for office and this Ike seems to be crawling around.

I am very worried about the slow track over Cuba.

It seem to indicate an extreme variability in the storm track.

It looks like this storm is just going to dance around the Gulf picking up strength, rotation, humidity, and might strike land, eventually, as an absolute monster.

If it heads north to "N' orleenz" its going to be really really BAD.

It doesn't have to hit the city. Just take out a part of the platforms and LOOP (even Texas, south of Houston, would be very damaged by a cat 5.)

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
geewiz on September 8, 2008 - 1:29am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

New Orleans is barely recovering from Gustave. gasoline must be very precious right now over there. As someone mentioned before, they might not have enough gasoline for the people to evacuate again. let alone their personal bank accounts to finance another hurricane vacation getaway.
on a seperate note, models are suggesting Houston, TX. (generally speaking, but still a big possibility) If Houston get a direct hit,
it will be very ugly, worse than Katrina was for New Orleans.

Remember the mass exodus from Houston when Rita was threatening? bumper to bumper traffic all the way from Houston to Dallas. and thats a 4 hour drive at posted speed limits. it was 24 hour drive minimum at least for everyone for a while. only to find there are no motels.

but many folks i have spoken to, do not plan to leave again for that last memorable experience. if they really do stay, and Houston gets slammed with a cat 4 min, it will be ugly. models are showing no higher than cat 2, maybe on the high side of cat 2 and close to cat 3, but we all know things can change.

Then there is the damage asessments are for the oil producing infrastructures.

only time will tell!

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
mips on September 8, 2008 - 5:27am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It seems after a brief spike, gas prices in New Orleans only went up to national average (so far)?!

http://www.neworleansgasprices.com/retail_price_chart.aspx

(add the national average to the chart manually - it seems I can't link to the chart with the average included).

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
AlanfromBigEasy on September 8, 2008 - 8:32am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

No shortages and prices appear to be dropping in New Orleans proper.

Elsewhere, slowly getting caught up in blackout areas as power comes back on generator use declines.

Lake Charles evacuated for Gustav and seems likely to need to evac again.

Alan

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
mcgowanmc on September 8, 2008 - 9:44am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

With each model track update:

http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark9latest.png

the models are pulling into Louisiana.

Frederic, 1979 into Mobile and Elena, 1985 meandering are the most similar
to Ike, and neither of these cut thru to the Western shore of Cuba as fast as
Ike is.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Frederic_1979_track.png

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/bd-l.jpg

HWRF and GFDL models, the LBAR and NOGAPS are now turning into LA.

I'm convinced the models do not take into account previous storms,
such as Edouard, Gustav, and Fay.

Those "ghost tracks" will move Ike toward Mississippi/Mobile.

Either way, a Cat 3 will be 250 miles S of NOLA and crude is at $108.

When there is zero predictive value in a model, what good is it?

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

13 comments on Riders on the Storm: Stopping and Restarting Offshore Oil and Gas

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version