158 comments on A distant mirror: Ireland's great famine
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158 comments on A distant mirror: Ireland's great famine
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Ugo - legend has it that the large eruption of Hekla (Iceland) in 1845 was implicated in deterioration of the weather and thus the Irish famine. Would you care to comment? Is there any evidence to support this?
http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/largeeruptions.cfm
Euan, I see that a real geologist is always looking for geological interpretations of everything! About the eruption, yes, there is some speculation on the web that the eruption of 1845 was related to the Irish famine. I think it might be. As I said, in a complex system there are forcings and feedbacks, but there are also triggers that abruptly cause the system to switch from a state to another. Now, the generally accepted trigger of the famine is the potato blight, but the eruption could have been another trigger. Difficult to say, though.
Exactly to some extent trying to figure out the exact chain of events is fruitless. We are probably living at or post peak oil now and have used in my opinion just about every possible approach to study peak oil yet even with thousand of enlightened people on the net working on the problem we find ourselves in a fog of unknowns.
Thats the real world and certainly the Irish did not have either the tools we have today thus they too where surrounded by a fog. I doubt many Irish even new the population of the land much less the rudiments of science needed to understand the danger. I'd suggest we are no better of then they. Our tools have done little to make our real situation clear.
The problem is not the exact cause timing or nature of our situation its understanding that complex systems have the intrinsic capacity to collapse if strained. We have enough information to understand that our current world is under immense strain and we know and understand the concept of collapse even if we lack the mathematics to really understand complex systems. Thats all we need to know the rest is wants. We have all the knowledge we need to have to make the right decisions to keep collapse a remote possibility.
In fact I suspect if it had been possible if you talked to the Irish before the famine they would have been uneasy about their plight and desiring change. Even they knew that they where not in a good situation. I'm sure even the poorest most illiterate Iraqi or African could tell would easily be able to explain if he thought his region was close to collapse. In the case of Africa of course it depends on the country but the point is we if we look are pretty good at seeing the looming problem. For the US at least we choose not to look.
I love your article it makes a reasonable guess at the cause of the problem and certainly you have highlighted important issues that at least played a supporting role in the collapse of Ireland. Figuring out the details is fantastic science and good for advancing our understanding of collapse but what you have presented is sufficient as a wake up call to the rest of the world we simply don't need more information.
For oil I think I've presented the case that a collapse of oil production has a reasonable chance or probability of occuring we simply don't have enough information to know for certain. However a reasonable argument that is sensible which has as dire and outcome as collapse of oil production or a famine in Ireland need not be perfect just reasonable. We need to act. Certainly one part of action is to do the science get the data find out what or real situation is and the other part is to proactively find solutions before a collapse happens while we still have a functional society. If people need more before they are willing to act then we obviously know one of the biggest reasons for collapse its that people are simply to arrogant to except that imperfect information is all we will ever get before we collapse. And thus collapse itself become ever more certain.
Euan, that's intriguing; do you have any links to this?
Apparently damp weather encourages the fungus that is the potato blight and so it is possible that the volcanic eruption may have locally modified the weather in the Northern Atlantic region.
However as the author states, it was merely a trigger to a primed situation.
note that the temperate maritime climate in ireland, at the eastern end of the gulf stream, is normally very damp year round..
damp weather encourages the fungus. This may have been a contributing factor but it's not the cause. What I know about the potato came from the book Propitious Esculent, The Potato in World History by John Reader. He said the potato late blight came out of a valley somewhere in Mexico, wiped out the potato crop in New England and was carried across to Belgium in a shipment of seed potatoes. It then proceeded to wipe out the entire potato crop in 2 million km2 of Europe in FOUR MONTHS.
You can't blame Irish land degradation for this - the crop failure happened everywhere. It was an opportunistic emerging disease. The death toll wasn't limited to Ireland because the potato was the food of the poor in a number of countries. But ultimately what killed people wasn't the lack of food but the lack of money to buy food, just as it is today.
The shortage of food triggered hording and profiteering which drove up the price of all foods, especially grain. The same thing happened last year with the rice 'shortages' and we'll see the same thing happening when peak oil sets in.
The English government's response was to order grain from the US in secret (to prevent profiteering), scrap the protectionist corn laws which cost the prime minister Robert Peel his job (the farm lobby weren't happy), and set up food relief.
You can blame nasty people for being nasty but humans have a tendency to blame everything on someone else. The bottom line was - no blight, no famine.
Firstly Ugo, great and very interesting post-
Secondly alanisthename , I tend to agree with your take on this
Add to that Queen Victorias bad politics/actions on the issue. Obviously deforestation is a necessity for preparing fields for agriculture in the first place, so that one is an overall miss, IMHO.
It is worth commenting on the status of potato blight. The organism (Phytophthora infestans) causing blight is always present to some extent in potato growing areas. To take hold on the potato vine the spores need continuously wet foliage for 48 hours. This can be caused by dew, pissy rain, fog and/or imprudent watering (irrigation).
Many areas are capable of experiencing these wet conditions. In large potato growing areas such as Idaho, it is often necessary to spray with fungicides weekly during adverse conditions. This bodes badly for people who have to consume, unknowingly potatoes from treated fields. The first signs of infection are usually mottled black spots on the leaves of the plant. Once established, the disease rapidly goes systemic and black spots appear on the stems too. There is no saving the plant once this happens. In addition, if the crop has developed tubers, the disease enters the tubers too making them unsuitable for eating or storage.
The disease spreads with amazing speed often infecting areas 200 km down wind in one day. Spoors have been detected 200 km at sea off of blighted areas. This disease also infects tomato plants with similar devastating results. The progress of the disease on tomatoes is nearly identical to that observed for potatoes. Often the disease appears just when plants are at peak growth and just developing fruit or tubers in the case of the potato. It may be that the stress of putting on fruit (or tubers) makes the plant more susceptible. A day or two before visible spotting appears, the plants often look the greenest and most lush of the growing season. Then just when you are congratulating yourself on your lovely crop the spots hit.
My experience is that once the disease has hit tomatoes in your area, it is nearly impossible to grow tomatoes on open ground for years afterward. For an organic producer like myself this means it is necessary to treat the plants constantly with Bordeaux mixture which is an inorganic copper spray. In spite of these treatments, damage can appear. Since I do not want me or my customers to eat tomatoes treated with this spray, I only grow tomatoes in greenhouses using reusable plastic on the ground and drip irrigation underneath the plastic sheets. The foliage never stays wet under these conditions and in our hands have never been affected by the disease even though we do not treat the plants with fungicide. Such a solution is a lot of work for the grower but the results are well worth it.
We reluctantly use Bordeaux spray on our potatoes but one must use it as a preventive treatment especially late in the growing season. At least the spray does not get on the tubers.
Relating to Ugo's article, is the fact that this viscous disease is always waiting to raise its ugly head and wipe out crops world wide. Should fungicides be difficult to obtain because of economic-peak oil reasons the world will be in deep doo doo.
Many other important crops have similar problems with disease including the important banana. Bananas are threatened with the fungus Black Sigatoka which has now spread over much of the tropical world. This nasty disease is threatening the very existence of millions, perhaps billions, of people who depend on it for food. Large banana producers treat their crop every time a new crown of leaves appear. Thus, the fruit is exposed to incredible amounts of organic pesticide and so are the consumers. Worse yet, one major cultivar, Cavendish, is grown in industrial banana production. This strain is highly susceptible to the disease and at present there has been no replacement found for the Cavendish that resists the disease.
Thus, survivalist-mentality people must be aware that dependence on common food crops such as the potato can be very risky. Diversity in food production is the best bet.
Very interesting comment, but having read your mention of Bordeaux spray makes me doubt about organic farming. Copper is a toxic heavy metal and can be accumulated in the soil.
On the other hand I'll tend now to eat organic bananas :-)
Hi Drillo, the term "heavy metal" is loosely defined and differs depending on who uses it. Being only a 4th row element it is not very "heavy" in the sense of atomic mass(compared to mercury and lead for example) but yes it is toxic as are most metals and yes it can accumulate in soil which is the reason we hesitate to use it even though it is allowed in "organic" agriculture.
I use the term "organic fungicide" for most synthetic fungicides which usually are carbon containing aromatic or heterocyclic compounds as opposed to Bordeaux mix which is essentially copper(II) carbonate which is considered by most chemical definitions to be inorganic (ie. non organic). Carbonates are not usually termed as being organic even though large amounts of carbonate deposits, eg limestone, clearly originate from living organisms.
For the most part Bordeaux mix is not absorbed by the plant (it is classified as a contact fungicide) and instead offers an exterior layer of protection against organisms such as Phytophthora infestans. Because it is a contact fungicide, it must be reapplied on new growth as it appears or the plant may not be protected. In contrast, many synthetic fungicides of the organic class as defined above can be absorbed by plant tissue and enter into the food chain very readily. Many of the synthetic fungicides have proven to be very toxic to humans and I suspect that many currently in use will be banned in future as more is known about their effects.
I have already stated my use of greenhouses to grow tomatoes as I do not wish to use Bordeaux on developing fruit.
On the other hand I'll tend now to eat organic bananas :-) I am not sure if by that statement you mean "organically grown bananas". If so, you are wise because the commercially grown banana is one of the most treated products in the market. But I would also suggest caution about commercially grown tomatoes because they most likely have been heavily treated with synthetic fungicides. There are many other common food items that I would avoid for similar reasons but that is beyond this discussion.
However, it should be stated that many products in past and probably present use have been shown to lead to DNA changes than can last for generations. Also, there is growing evidence that human sperm counts are decreasing (maybe a good thing :-) ) and I am quite sure that this will eventually be traced to environmental origins including residual pesticides, herbicides and fungicides as well as other chemical pollutants including plasticizers and emissions from combustion.
Best,
Bio1
Bio1 - thank you for two very informative postings. Earlier this year my doctor told me I had to lose some weight and lower my cholesterol.
I used to snack on chocolate, ice cream, cheese, biscuits, cakes, burgers etc. I've cut these out completely and replaced this with pears, peaches, plums, bananas, strawberries etc.
The weight just fell off and I feel great. How to hell am I supposed to weigh the risks of cholesterol v pesticides? We do buy some "organic fruit" but it is difficult to eat it all before it rots and it is equally difficult to make the 10 mile round trip to the shop every second day.
Is to stop eating altogether the solution?
Euan
Hi Euan, Thanks, I am glad you found it interesting. If you have space start a garden. That is the only other choice, I guess. Frankly (sounds like blasphemy from an organic grower), I would take my chances with the toxins in place of the known and almost certain short term bad effects of a heavy fat, cholesterol and sugar-based diet. I forgo most fruits and vegetables unless I grow them but must admit to liking bananas a lot.
Cheers,
Bio1
Parallel to the pesticide/fungicide use in crops is the antibiotic use in animal herds intended for slaughter. FDA recently limped away from a 'crackdown' on the off label use of cephalosporin drugs due to pressure from the agricultural industry which claimed they are needed to prevent infectious diseases.
"Cephalosporins treat respiratory diseases in cattle and swine but are also often given "off-label" for uses not approved by the FDA to poultry or more generally in livestock for non-approved infectious diseases."
http://www.wisconsinagconnection.com/story-national.php?Id=2880&yr=2008
The organism is commonly called a fungus, but is actually a protist in the group Oomycetes.
http://tolweb.org/Stramenopiles/2380
More closely related to brown algae than fungi.
The center of diversity of the genus is Mexico. Places there where potatoes simply can't be grown.
Euan, I had not heard this before. I live near Portland, Oregon USA. in May of 1980 Mount St. Helens erupted. I worked in a strawberry processing canary that summer. The ash fallout caused major problems with the fruit. It also caused what seemed to be an abnormal amount of rain. I don't know if this is typical with eruptions but that was a very wet summer, as I remember. Darker(cloud cover) and wetter would lead to an increase in disease. Phytophera spp. are primarily soil diseases. Overly wet soils always add problems.
Interesting....
I tend to agree with the comments above - no blight, no famine. But wonder to what extent the eruption may have made a bad situation worse. The Hekla eruption began 2nd September and lasted several months. Today, the potato crop in Scotland gets harvested in October and so the eruption could have led to bad / worse weather in the months ahead of harvesting. The wikipedia account indicates ash falling on the northern islands - Faroes, Orkney and Shetland - causing problems for livestock.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hekla
Hekla lies on the Iceland hot spot, essentially a bit of the mid Atlantic ridge sticking out of the ocean. Volcanos of this type tend to erupt often, small eruptions, ejecta confined to the troposphere. Ash clouds down wind from the volcano could lead to localised cooling and (I believe) the prospect of higher cloud cover.
Google "volcanic ash nucleation" for articles on formation of ice crystals