I don't suppose we have any way to know if that article's info includes decline, eh? Using the assumptions of 6% decline, as you state, 86mmb/d for '08 and only 1% increase in demand per year we would need 40,000,000mb/d by 2015. Using 2005, I also get 50mb/d needed.

It's critical to know if the writer and the study are including decline or not. If they are claiming those numbers with decline included, someone is lying through their teeth, or they are going to go all out then we'll have a massive crash in production.

Cheers

Will reports like this stifle any lingering speculative tendancies in the market and cause per barrel prices to drop to less than $100? If so, for how long? That is, would per-barrel prices remain low enough, long enough to create a resurgence in high-consumption levels? I don't know about the rest of the world, but Americans are quick to jump on any opportunity to over-consume, and lower per-barrel prices would give them just such an opportunity. That would increase depletion rates...so what then? How often can such a cycle be repeated? I think a lot of us thought the price events that occured earlier this year were the beginning of the end. Now they appear to be merely the end of the beginning.

BTW, some more Texas & Saudi comparisons.

If Texas had maintained its 1972 production rate (3.45 mbpd) for three years, we would have produced 3.78 Gb. We actually produced 3.67 Gb, a 3% decline in cumulative production, relative to the 1972 peak rate. Based on HL, Texas produced about 14% of remaining URR (crude oil) in the three years after 1972.

If Saudi Araba had maintained its 2005 production rate (9.6 mbpd) for three years, they would have produced 10.5 Gb. I estimate that they will have produced about 10.0 Gb, a 4.8% decline in cumulative production, relative to the 2005 peak rate. Based on HL, I estimate that Saudi Arabia will have produced about 13% of remaining URR (crude oil) in the three years after 2005.

There is no debate, that conventional crude production in the following countries/regions is in decline:

- Canada
- US lower 48
- Alaska (from 1.4 Mio. to 400'000 barrels)
- Mexico
- Venezuela
- North Sea
- Russia
- Indonesia
- Australia
- Vietnam
- Oman !

NOT in decline, yet increasing production comes mainly from the Arabian gulf:

- SA
- Iran
- Irak (no surprise)
- UAE
- Kuwait

plus
- Lybia
- Angola (no surprise since they started pumping only 10 years ago)
- Caspian Sea region

Where is the reason, that only the Arabian gulf nations are able to ramp up production whereas the rest of the producing nations (except Caspian Sea region + north Africa) are in terminal decline?
Is it a question of reliable data, which is not available from the Arab nations or what? Are they sitting on abiotic oil?