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90 comments on Hurricane Ike, Shut-In Production and Energy Infrastructure (Updated 9/9 10:00 EDT)

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unrepentantcowboy on September 7, 2008 - 10:24am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

The perfect stike became a split. No way to pick up the spare but the left side appears the likely target this time.

Headed right at Houston.

Flashbacks to the largest short term evacuation of people in the history of the world (Rita).

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mcgowanmc on September 7, 2008 - 10:37am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It's getting late in the season. The coriolis effect will
take over from weak steering currents.

Add in the "ghost tracks" of Edouard, Fay, and Gustav
and Ike will avoid going farther than Vermilion Bay
to the West.

Between PilotTown and Pascagula.

Large Cat 3.

Port Fourchon stays w/o power.

And just what is that thing com,ing out of the Bay of Campeche?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/ft-l.jpg

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2008/IKE/images/latest_fcst...

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unrepentantcowboy on September 7, 2008 - 11:00am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Coriolis? Sounds like some sort of sexuallly transmitted disease.

I don't know much about the science behind hurricane movement but I can do dead reckoning and read maps prepared by experts.

While some of the tracks agree with your assessment, the overwhelming majority have the thing headed further west.

We'll see soon enough (good Lord willing).

I also can google coriolis:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coriolis_effect

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mcgowanmc on September 7, 2008 - 11:05am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark9latest.png

First, thanx for your reply.

Second, Either way, We should know by this evening the way Ike
moves into Cuba.

2a-Here's the Pattern I'm looking at right now.
Again, from Wikipedia-

"The precursor to Hurricane Elena was a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on August 23(1985). It remained weak due to its fast westward motion and Saharan Air Layer around the circulation. As it moved through the Greater Antilles, it slowed somewhat, and a tropical depression formed on August 28 between Cuba and Haiti. It paralleled the northern cost of Cuba, and became Tropical Storm Elena that night. Conditions were favorable for additional development in the Gulf of Mexico, and Elena became a hurricane on the 29th.

A frontal trough of low pressure turned Elena to the northeast, but when the trough outran the storm, steering currents collapsed, leaving behind a stalled, strengthening hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. It posed a threat to the west coast of Florida,[1] but after the crowds returned to the Mississippi and Florida panhandle coasts, it slowly looped back to the northwest and was changed to a north Gulf Coast threat, prompting another evacuation of the Mississippi Coast."

Third, the Coriolis Effect-(courtesy Wikipedia)-
"Freely moving objects on the surface of the Earth experience a Coriolis force, and appear to veer to the right in the northern hemisphere."

Fourth, whatever that is coming out of the Bay of Campeche,
Ike will not like it. And definitely will not veer into it.

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Mad_Man on September 8, 2008 - 7:58pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It's getting late in the season.

September 10 is considered the peak of hurricane season. Hurricane Wilma came through south Florida in late October, 2005 and made a royal mess of things. I spent 3 days in Collier Co doing roadway damage assessment.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Wilma_in_Florida

Hurricane season ain't over 'til it's over.

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Ben on September 8, 2008 - 8:47pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Also, remember that in 2005 we actually ran out of the alphabet of hurricane names, and had to start with Alpha, Beta, Charlie, etc...

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unrepentantcowboy on September 9, 2008 - 8:18am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The projected path now takes Ike into deep South Texas, somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

This means far less of an impact, both on heavy populations and oil facilities. There are some refineries around Corpus.

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Undertow on September 9, 2008 - 9:10am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

From latest advisory.

It cannot be overemphasized that one should not focus on 4 and 5 day
forecast points since these can be subject to substantial errors.
Do not Forget that few days ago...the guidance unanimously had Ike
near South Florida and then gradually shifted the danger toward
western Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico.

There is a reasonable possibility the NHC will move the track back north over the next 24 hours. Some recent model runs are trending back that way. UKMET model has Ike much nearer Houston for example.

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GregTX on September 9, 2008 - 9:13am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

UKMET has been the least accurate so far with projections. GDFL has tracked fairly well. I think the high pressure front coming down from the north will force the hurricane significantly south of Houston (possibly south of Corpus Cristi) for landfall.

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Undertow on September 9, 2008 - 9:22am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

And it may well do but for the moment Houston area has advanced into the 4 day cone now. People shouldn't forget that and that's what the NHC is strongly emphasising - not the centre position.

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GregTX on September 9, 2008 - 9:28am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

If we're still in the cone tomorrow, I'll start preparing.

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Undertow on September 9, 2008 - 12:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

And sure enough, at 11am EDT, the NHC shifted track slightly further north in line with UKMET and Euro. New GFS run also moving north and puts landfall north of Corpus Christi. Other models now expected to trend north as well.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/091452.shtml

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT INDUCES A RIGHT
TURN ON DAY 4. THE GFS AND NOGAPS HAVE A DIFFERENT PATTERN...WITH
MORE RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF IKE THAT KEEPS THE
HURRICANE MOVING BASICALLY WESTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL
WITH IKE THUS FAR...AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST

With the GFS now following this trend as well a further shift north by the NHC is quite likely. Galveston very probably in 3 day cone tomorrow if this trend continues.

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GregTX on September 9, 2008 - 12:29pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Like I said, 8 am tomorrow morning I'll decide what I'm doing.

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Undertow on September 9, 2008 - 12:49pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Seems sensible. I'm just glad to be on the other side of the Atlantic from Ike. Take care.

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unrepentantcowboy on September 9, 2008 - 6:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Ay caramba.

The latest map has Ike turning north after hitting the coast and coming dead over us (Seguin, Belmont, Gonzales).

Those fleeing the coast with horses might want to reconsider coming here (our Seguin Horse Center is a designated hurricane refuge for those with horses).

Watch and wait before making your move. No sense running INTO a storm.

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90 comments on Hurricane Ike, Shut-In Production and Energy Infrastructure (Updated 9/9 10:00 EDT)

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