It's getting late in the season. The coriolis effect will
take over from weak steering currents.

Add in the "ghost tracks" of Edouard, Fay, and Gustav
and Ike will avoid going farther than Vermilion Bay
to the West.

Between PilotTown and Pascagula.

Large Cat 3.

Port Fourchon stays w/o power.

And just what is that thing com,ing out of the Bay of Campeche?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/ft-l.jpg

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2008/IKE/images/latest_fcst...

Coriolis? Sounds like some sort of sexuallly transmitted disease.

I don't know much about the science behind hurricane movement but I can do dead reckoning and read maps prepared by experts.

While some of the tracks agree with your assessment, the overwhelming majority have the thing headed further west.

We'll see soon enough (good Lord willing).

I also can google coriolis:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coriolis_effect

http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark9latest.png

First, thanx for your reply.

Second, Either way, We should know by this evening the way Ike
moves into Cuba.

2a-Here's the Pattern I'm looking at right now.
Again, from Wikipedia-

"The precursor to Hurricane Elena was a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on August 23(1985). It remained weak due to its fast westward motion and Saharan Air Layer around the circulation. As it moved through the Greater Antilles, it slowed somewhat, and a tropical depression formed on August 28 between Cuba and Haiti. It paralleled the northern cost of Cuba, and became Tropical Storm Elena that night. Conditions were favorable for additional development in the Gulf of Mexico, and Elena became a hurricane on the 29th.

A frontal trough of low pressure turned Elena to the northeast, but when the trough outran the storm, steering currents collapsed, leaving behind a stalled, strengthening hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. It posed a threat to the west coast of Florida,[1] but after the crowds returned to the Mississippi and Florida panhandle coasts, it slowly looped back to the northwest and was changed to a north Gulf Coast threat, prompting another evacuation of the Mississippi Coast."

Third, the Coriolis Effect-(courtesy Wikipedia)-
"Freely moving objects on the surface of the Earth experience a Coriolis force, and appear to veer to the right in the northern hemisphere."

Fourth, whatever that is coming out of the Bay of Campeche,
Ike will not like it. And definitely will not veer into it.

It's getting late in the season.

September 10 is considered the peak of hurricane season. Hurricane Wilma came through south Florida in late October, 2005 and made a royal mess of things. I spent 3 days in Collier Co doing roadway damage assessment.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Wilma_in_Florida

Hurricane season ain't over 'til it's over.

Also, remember that in 2005 we actually ran out of the alphabet of hurricane names, and had to start with Alpha, Beta, Charlie, etc...