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90 comments on Hurricane Ike, Shut-In Production and Energy Infrastructure (Updated 9/9 10:00 EDT)

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unrepentantcowboy on September 9, 2008 - 8:18am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The projected path now takes Ike into deep South Texas, somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

This means far less of an impact, both on heavy populations and oil facilities. There are some refineries around Corpus.

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Undertow on September 9, 2008 - 9:10am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

From latest advisory.

It cannot be overemphasized that one should not focus on 4 and 5 day
forecast points since these can be subject to substantial errors.
Do not Forget that few days ago...the guidance unanimously had Ike
near South Florida and then gradually shifted the danger toward
western Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico.

There is a reasonable possibility the NHC will move the track back north over the next 24 hours. Some recent model runs are trending back that way. UKMET model has Ike much nearer Houston for example.

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GregTX on September 9, 2008 - 9:13am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

UKMET has been the least accurate so far with projections. GDFL has tracked fairly well. I think the high pressure front coming down from the north will force the hurricane significantly south of Houston (possibly south of Corpus Cristi) for landfall.

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Undertow on September 9, 2008 - 9:22am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

And it may well do but for the moment Houston area has advanced into the 4 day cone now. People shouldn't forget that and that's what the NHC is strongly emphasising - not the centre position.

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GregTX on September 9, 2008 - 9:28am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

If we're still in the cone tomorrow, I'll start preparing.

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Undertow on September 9, 2008 - 12:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

And sure enough, at 11am EDT, the NHC shifted track slightly further north in line with UKMET and Euro. New GFS run also moving north and puts landfall north of Corpus Christi. Other models now expected to trend north as well.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/091452.shtml

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT INDUCES A RIGHT
TURN ON DAY 4. THE GFS AND NOGAPS HAVE A DIFFERENT PATTERN...WITH
MORE RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF IKE THAT KEEPS THE
HURRICANE MOVING BASICALLY WESTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL
WITH IKE THUS FAR...AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST

With the GFS now following this trend as well a further shift north by the NHC is quite likely. Galveston very probably in 3 day cone tomorrow if this trend continues.

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GregTX on September 9, 2008 - 12:29pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Like I said, 8 am tomorrow morning I'll decide what I'm doing.

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Undertow on September 9, 2008 - 12:49pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Seems sensible. I'm just glad to be on the other side of the Atlantic from Ike. Take care.

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unrepentantcowboy on September 9, 2008 - 6:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Ay caramba.

The latest map has Ike turning north after hitting the coast and coming dead over us (Seguin, Belmont, Gonzales).

Those fleeing the coast with horses might want to reconsider coming here (our Seguin Horse Center is a designated hurricane refuge for those with horses).

Watch and wait before making your move. No sense running INTO a storm.

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90 comments on Hurricane Ike, Shut-In Production and Energy Infrastructure (Updated 9/9 10:00 EDT)

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