Jerome wrote,
"Also, I should add that the new preferred stock will be senior to the existing one, which will not have much of an impact in the first year"

What!?

"Fitch has also downgraded FNM and FRE's preferred stock to 'C/RR6' from 'BBB-'. The downgrade of the preferred stock reflects the subordination of the preferred to any Treasury interest and interest payments are unlikely to resume in the foreseeable future. Thus, any recovery is expected to be minimal. "

from

Fitch Affirms Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac's 'AAA' IDR; Lowers Pfd Stock; Sub Debt on Watch Evolving
Last update: 4:28 p.m. EDT Sept. 7, 2008
CHICAGO, Sep 07, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE)

This is an immediate hit to the market value of the preferred. All financial institutions holding these preferred as part of their capital will take an immediate hit.

****

U.S. watching Macs' preferred shareholders

WASHINGTON, Aug. 23 (UPI) -- U.S. Treasury officials are watching Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE)'s preferred shareholders -- which include many banks -- for signs of panic, sources say.

Citing sources close to the department, The Washington Post said Saturday that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is looking to avoid wider financial turmoil by making moves that would prompt the preferred shareholders of the troubled mortgage finance companies to sell their shares.

Paulson is said to be keeping a close watch for any sign of panic among those institutional shareholders as he decides whether to inject government money into the two companies, the Post said.

The value of the shares, estimated to be worth $36 billion, has fallen recently, with Fannie's dropping 26 percent and Freddie's falling 36 percent in the last week.

Analysts say the situation may reach a moment of truth in early September when the two Macs will seek to refinance about $225 billion in mostly short-term loans that are coming due. Any sign of a sell-off by the preferred shareholders will likely persuade Paulson to act to inject the government funds, the newspaper reported.

yes and no. The hit is immediate, because the likelihood of future warrants being exercised is high, but they haven't actually been exercized yet. It's just the diffrerence between an event that has happened, and one that has not, but is highly likely to. Both will get a similar rating, but the event has happened in one case and not yet in the other.

The preferred stock will be widely held within the US, including being held by regional banks (those least affected by sub-prime???). Those banks must now write down their stock holdings.

I don't know if this conservatorship will qualify as nationalisation, but if it does, and I see no reason why not, then it will triger default on any FMFM CDS (credit default swaps).

Previous interventions have had the effect of boosting the stock market for a while, not permanently since there are no real changes to the business practises.

This won't help anyone struggling to meet their mortgage repayments. IMHO it is a bail-out for investors in the bonds most notably the non-US investors who were threatening to dump these bonds.