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38 comments on World Oil Exports [02] Libya
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38 comments on World Oil Exports [02] Libya
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Thanks, Luis!
Could you please tell me the data source for your statement: "In 2007 production reached 1.85 Mb/d." Maybe it includes NGLs?
The EIA says 1.7 mbd crude/condensate for 2007.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/3ctab.pdf
The IEA and OPEC August OMR both state 1.71 mbd crude for 2007. The OPEC 2007 Annual Statistical Bulletin states 1.67 mbd average for 2007.
I found Libya confusing so I did two scenarios, like Laherrere, URR 60 Gb (blue lines) and URR 40 Gb (black lines). I admit that the URR 60 Gb scenario should give Libya the ability to increase production further to perhaps over 2 mbd. However, my own view is that Libya's URR is probably closer to 40 Gb because IHS tends to be overoptimistic and thus I give more weight to WM's 40 Gb creaming curve.
There are also few projects which provide Libya with an ability to increase production which could add more weight to the URR 40 Gb scenario. OPEC only has Amal in 2008 and beyond, at 40 kbd.
http://www.opec.org/home/PowerPoint/Supply%20and%20Capacity/upstream%20p...
Wiki Oil Megaprojects also has only one project for 2008 and beyond, in block NC 186/115 at 90 kbd.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Megaprojects/2009
click to enlarge
Ace thanks for the added insight.
WOE reports to crude plus condensate plus NGL, because the BP statistical review is its base data source. I'm not exactly comfortable with this because in effect NGL is a by-product of Natural Gas exploration, not Oil. With time I'll have to deal with this issue, but the BP data is very useful especially on the consumption side.
I gathered three ultimates from three different sources: 60 Gb, 55 Gb, and 40 Gb. In Campbell's cumulative graph 40 Gb are passed still in the 1960s. Also, with just 40 Gb it would be very hard to reach productions levels in excess of 3 Mb/d. So I just skipped out this ultimate and worked on with 55 Gb.
As for the potential for growth, I expect Libya to tie closer with international oil companies, especially from Europe. Also take into account that NGL production will likely grow.
It might be worth reflecting also on water.
MENA region is going to hit water shortages, especially as populations increase (perhaps double by 2050 with concomitant industrial growth - and deficit of agricultural products).
Libya, has large reserves of fossil water - the man made 'river' pipeline project supplies 2 cubic Km per year, 85% used for irrigation. http://www.dlr.de/tt/en/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-3525//5497_read-6611/
but is expected to encounter an increasing deficit, only exceeded by that of Egypt among the N African countries.
Water prospects for the region are reviewed in detail as background in report on use of Concentrated Solar Power for de-salination.
Phil