The Oil Drum | Hurricane Ike, Energy Infrastructure, Refineries and Damage Models Landfall Thread (Updated 9/13 18:00 EDT)

159 comments on Hurricane Ike, Energy Infrastructure, Refineries and Damage Models Landfall Thread (Updated 9/13 18:00 EDT)

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expat on September 13, 2008 - 9:26am

Posted in the 3rd Ike thread -
For anybody with more geographical awareness of Texas than I, the following link of river flows could be interesting -
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/tx/nwis/current/?type=flow

What is really interesting to me is that the Neches River currently has a flow of -32000 cubic feet a second - that is, the water is now flowing the wrong direction in that amount. The previous record flow for this measuring station was 8580 - the average is 5290.
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?08041780

Just more of that overhyping of data - the measured flow in the wrong direction is basically 4 times greater than the previous measured maximum. And basically, all of that water will be coming back - this storm will take a while before its effects are over, much less known.

Leanan then posted 'Some Texas official on CNN last night said that was an advantage. It'll wash in, then wash back out again. No big deal. We're not a bowl, like New Orleans.'

Sometimes, I truly wonder about people - that official is now staring at something like the 3 times the greatest amount of water measured on the Neches coming back, and it is not a big deal, because Texas isn't a bowl?

Where do you find such profound talent to be in a position of responsibility for an emergency?

EDIT - I know basically nothing of the area - Salt Water Barrier, Beaumont Texas, but to the extent that there are bridges, dams, or anything along the river banks, they are likely to be subjected to forces that their designers never imagined. Odd as this might sound, at least in a case like this, being a bowl likely helped New Orleans in this regard.

I really can't believe that people have so little understanding of what that much water will do - but then, Agnes was a rarity, and one of those once in a lifetime events. Until Floyd hit - which meant that most of the plans for the unfunded flood control work could be pulled out of the cabinets, to be ignored for the future again.

We really don't learn.

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Nate Hagens on September 13, 2008 - 9:47am

We really don't learn.

We, as a species, have always learned by building personal pattern recognition databases and by following others (mirror neurons).

In the current generation, there is no pattern bank for using the precautionary principle, or planning for a rainy day, just for consumption (on average). It is very difficult (nigh impossible) to tell someone of this mindset that things could be different, unless they are told by someone in authority or a majority of people they trust. Conventional media is primarily entertainment, and the real 'news' has shifted online..

Regarding Chucks relief (and preliminary good call on dodging an energy refining disaster), we were close to an example of where money wouldn't have the ability to bail us out (Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, General Motors, Lehman, etc.) No amount of money could have made up for months of 3-5 million bpd of refining capacity offline. And at a 1 for 1 price elasticity for oil product, that would have been a minimum 15% drop in GDP, though I think there is a probably a MOL of gasoline availability needed to keep country 'running'. What could have been....

Interesting (and dangerous) times.

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research24 on September 13, 2008 - 12:56pm

The bible warns about building on shifting sands yet people build houses on sandbars in hurricane zones.

ARE people smarter than yeast?

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ViewFromHere on September 13, 2008 - 4:39pm

I'm struck by how much of Chrisian imagery is agricultural, pastoral. Interestingly, I've been thinking about old testament Joseph who stored 7 years of grain for Egypt and saved the country from drought. Looking at my own grain bins and wondering what 7 years of grain storage would look like.

The book of Isaiah is about a collapse and the "saving remnant" that remains. In fact, that is Isaiah's whole job-- to inspire the "saving remnant." Maybe like Oil Drum- a voice in the wilderness. Anyone read The Road by Cormac McArthy? I think that book is a metaphor that takes Isaiah into account.

Nate-- appreciate your researched thoughts about the current generation learning consumption rather than "saving for a rainy day" or precautionary principles. I'm going to quote you in a speech I'm giving to the Farmers Union next week. It is obvious that you cannot "tell" people that times could change dramatically. I suspect that some of these old farmers in the Union will know exactly what you mean-- some having lived through the depression.

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expat on September 13, 2008 - 10:02am

Latest Neches data - -33,400 cubic feet a second, or 14,989,920 gallons a minute - flowing upriver.

Somewhere, this mass of water will collide with the normal downriver flow - and the area where it does will suffer from severe flooding, likely miles from the coast.

Looking at the basic map, it looks like I-10 and a railroad could be in at least potential danger of being cut, depending on how they cross the river, and how well the bridges/overpasses were built, and to what extent the road/rails are higher than the floodwaters.

Lucky it isn't a bowl, though. Wonder if that official's name is Brown?

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westexas on September 13, 2008 - 10:13am

A report from someone who stayed on Galveston Island:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080913/ap_on_re_us/ike

Steven Rushing, a commercial fishmerman, tried to ride out the storm with his wife and several family members, including his pregnant 17-year-old daughter, in their one-story brick home on Galveston Island.

Early Saturday, they watched the water rise and donned life jackets. When the water reached the TV, about 4 feet high, Rushing's plan was to kick out a window so they could tie themselves to a tree and await rescue.

But then he noticed a sudden calm, apparently the hurricane's eye passing over. He loaded his family into a 17-foot ski boat and headed for the San Luis resort, the headquarters for emergency personnel about 20 blocks away. It took 20 minutes to float 16 blocks before the boat ran aground. Then the Rushings sprinted for safety, guided by lights from police responding to a 911 call made from the boat.

"I'm drained. I'm beat up," Rushing said later Saturday morning. "My family is traumatized. I kept them here, promising them everything would be alright, but this is the real deal and I won't stay no more."

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GreenMan on September 13, 2008 - 10:25am

Rushing's plan was to kick out a window so they could tie themselves to a tree and await rescue

Our civilization's future in a nutshell.

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yiedyie on September 13, 2008 - 3:23pm

"I'm drained. I'm beat up," Rushing said later Saturday morning. "My family is traumatized. I kept them here, promising them everything would be alright, but this is the real deal and I won't stay no more."

Lucky that he had this chance, he could not have this chance! Maybe another people don't get a second chance.

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