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159 comments on Hurricane Ike, Energy Infrastructure, Refineries and Damage Models Landfall Thread (Updated 9/13 18:00 EDT)

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Nate Hagens on September 13, 2008 - 9:47am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

We really don't learn.

We, as a species, have always learned by building personal pattern recognition databases and by following others (mirror neurons).

In the current generation, there is no pattern bank for using the precautionary principle, or planning for a rainy day, just for consumption (on average). It is very difficult (nigh impossible) to tell someone of this mindset that things could be different, unless they are told by someone in authority or a majority of people they trust. Conventional media is primarily entertainment, and the real 'news' has shifted online..

Regarding Chucks relief (and preliminary good call on dodging an energy refining disaster), we were close to an example of where money wouldn't have the ability to bail us out (Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, General Motors, Lehman, etc.) No amount of money could have made up for months of 3-5 million bpd of refining capacity offline. And at a 1 for 1 price elasticity for oil product, that would have been a minimum 15% drop in GDP, though I think there is a probably a MOL of gasoline availability needed to keep country 'running'. What could have been....

Interesting (and dangerous) times.

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research24 on September 13, 2008 - 12:56pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The bible warns about building on shifting sands yet people build houses on sandbars in hurricane zones.

ARE people smarter than yeast?

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ViewFromHere on September 13, 2008 - 4:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I'm struck by how much of Chrisian imagery is agricultural, pastoral. Interestingly, I've been thinking about old testament Joseph who stored 7 years of grain for Egypt and saved the country from drought. Looking at my own grain bins and wondering what 7 years of grain storage would look like.

The book of Isaiah is about a collapse and the "saving remnant" that remains. In fact, that is Isaiah's whole job-- to inspire the "saving remnant." Maybe like Oil Drum- a voice in the wilderness. Anyone read The Road by Cormac McArthy? I think that book is a metaphor that takes Isaiah into account.

Nate-- appreciate your researched thoughts about the current generation learning consumption rather than "saving for a rainy day" or precautionary principles. I'm going to quote you in a speech I'm giving to the Farmers Union next week. It is obvious that you cannot "tell" people that times could change dramatically. I suspect that some of these old farmers in the Union will know exactly what you mean-- some having lived through the depression.

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159 comments on Hurricane Ike, Energy Infrastructure, Refineries and Damage Models Landfall Thread (Updated 9/13 18:00 EDT)

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