 | Damage Caused by Hurricane Ike - Open Thread | The Oil Drum | The Connection Between Financial Markets and Energy - Open Thread |  |
411 comments on Implications of a Ten Day Refinery Outage
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
411 comments on Implications of a Ten Day Refinery Outage
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
Search The Oil Drum with Google
Support The Oil Drum
Recently on TOD:World
TOD:Campfire
TOD:Europe
- Unique Times -- and the Future
- Peak Gold, Easier to Model than Peak Oil? - Part I
- Carbon Capture and Storage
TOD:Canada
- In this house, we obey the laws of thermodynamics!
- The Round-Up: October 24, 2008
- Compressed Air Energy Storage - How viable is it?
TOD:Australia/NZ
- The Bullroarer - Friday 27th November 2009
- International Energy Agency calls 'Peak' on OECD Oil Demand
- Australian Senate: Peak Oil motion defeated 31:6
TOD:Net Energy
Blogroll
Energy Sites
- The Coming Global Oil Crisis
- Die Off
- Dry Dipstick
- Energy Bulletin
- From the Wilderness
- Life After the Oil Crash
- Peak Oil Crisis
- Peak Oil News and Message Boards
- Powerswitch
- Rigzone
- Matthew Simmons
- Wolf at the Door
Environment & Sustainability Sites
- The Daily Green
- EcoGeek
- Eco Street
- Green Car Congress
- Green Options
- green.alltop.com
- Gristmill
- RealClimate
- Sustainablog
- Treehugger
- WorldChanging
Blogs
- Casaubon's Book
- Cleantech Blog
- Clusterf
k Nation (Jim Kunstler) - The Cost of Energy
- David Strahan
- Early Warning
- The Energy Blog
- European Tribune
- GraphOilology
- Health After Oil
- jeffvail.net
- Mobjectivist
- Peak Energy (Australia)
- Peak Energy (USA)
- R-Squared
- Resource Insights
Finance & Economics Blogs
- The Big Picture
- Calculated Risk
- The Crash Course
- Ecological Economics
- Econbrowser
- Environmental Economics
- Infectious Greed
- The Mess That Greenspan Made
- Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Organizations
Peak Oil Primers
Beware email scams!
Beware email scams claiming to be from this site. We do not have any job openings. If anyone contacts you about a job at The Oil Drum, do not reply to them, and definitely do not give them any personal information or send them money. Read more here.
“Where ideas are concerned, America can be counted on to do one of two things: take a good idea and run it completely into the ground, or take a bad idea and run it completely into the ground.”
—George Carlin
User login
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
Personnel
- Editors: Nate Hagens, Gail the Actuary, Prof. Goose
- DrumBeat Editor: Leanan
- Contributors: ace, Engineer-Poet, Heading Out, jeffvail, JoulesBurn, Sam Foucher, Robert Rapier
- TOD:Campfire: Glenn, Jason Bradford
- TOD:Europe: Chris Vernon, Euan Mearns, Francois Cellier, Jerome a Paris, Luís de Sousa, Rembrandt, Rune Likvern, Ugo Bardi
- TOD:Canada: benk, Libelle
- TOD:ANZ: Big Gav, Phil Hart, aeldric
- Emeritus: Stuart Staniford
- Technician: Super G
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
GAIA Host Collective
I don't see any mention of panic buying in this article, and I think that it will have a big impact, especially as news of shortages gains traction.
But is that why the mass media is not reporting this impending shortage? Are they hiding news to prevent us from panicking?
They need to report the news accurately, and it is our job not to panic, but instead be constructive and elect leaders who may be capable of dealing with a crisis without just blowing it up. The polls I read don't give me the comfort I wish I could have for that.
Do any of you think it is better for the media to keep it quiet to delay and perhaps slightly smooth the shortfall?
LOL!
CNN is covering it. They have been covering the oil infrastructure angle, and have been since Gustav. They actually sent Ali Velshi, their oil guy, to report from the heart of the storm for both Gustav and Ike. (He usually reports on oil prices and such from the studio. I didn't know he even had legs.)
This morning, they are talking about how the refineries are shut down, and how they won't know how badly they are affected until the electrical infrastructure is inspected, which might not be for awhile.
They are also reporting that gas prices may rise due to these refinery issues - for weeks or months. But they're telling people not to panic, that by rushing to the gas stations now, they're saving only a few bucks at most.
They are downplaying the idea of actual shortages, and that's probably the responsible thing for a worldwide news service to do. If people panic and rush to fill up, it would suck the system dry, even if there were no production issues.
One of their talking hairdos (based in CNN headquarters in Atlanta) said she's running low on gas. She looked for a gas station on her way to work this morning, but couldn't find one with gas. She said she passed 12 of them, and all had their signs blacked out. Some had yellow police tape tied around the pumps. She said she has enough gas to get to work tomorrow, but isn't sure what she'll do after that if she can't get a fillup.
But is this a positive or a negative?
How many talking heads do we really need?
LOL
I thought that post was pretty funny, too. And look what time it was posted!!
Leanan gets more work done in a day than any three people, seems never to leave the computer terminal, and now we see, doesn't sleep.
Is this a human being?
So I guess the question should be: "does Leanan have legs?".
:-)
Does someone have the calculation on this? For instance, I filled both cars yesterday. Both were half-full to begin with. If cars on average are half full (which seems about right except for those too poor to put in more than a few dollars gas at a time - who mostly won't be finding extra dollars to fill up today either), and the average car is driven 1,000 miles per month, then if it's getting 20 m.p.g. that's 50 gallons, or 1.67 gallons per day. Assuming a largish tank, that's 3 fillups a month. So everyone topping off their tanks should use up about 5 days' forward supply.
However, once that's done, you're looking at the normal rate of consumption - or lower, if prices really surge, since people will conserve. In fact, people are likely to delay their next fill up until they see prices falling again. So on the back side there will be a lot of people running with less-than-half-full tanks.
Looks to me like the main effect of filling up now is getting ahead of the gas stations posting higher prices on what's the same gas whether I put it in my car yesterday, or four days from now when I would anyway. The belief that good citizens should wait to buy when prices go up strikes me as the opposite of good economics, except of course for those selling the oil.
The general assumption here is that 96 hours is what the system can handle - and your figures, which sound quite reasonable, lead a one day shortfall.
We will be able to see how it works out over the next couple of weeks.
Driving will be cut back, but I don't think 'conservation' will be the prime element. It will be a lack of gasoline that will lead to driving being cut back - not exactly a replay of 1979, but along those lines.
Edit - the shortages causing cutting back being primarily the southeast/mid-Atlantic. Regions such as California and Pacific Northwest shouldn't have any problems in terms of supply.
Yes, this is a sort of Social Darwinism. Let the people who read The Oil Drum rush out FIRST and buy gas and fill up some 5 gallon containers. They can sell the 5 gallon containers for $100. You read it first here.
A good shortage now will open up the possibilities for positive public policy and private decisions.
A pinprick now to reduce the impact of a near fatal body blow later.
All good as far as I am concerned,
Alan
I think panic food buying will exceed panic gas buying.
Recently I have reconnected with an estranged relative who works in food service.
Only after speaking with him about his work am I able to appreciate how far flung our food distribution network has become and how much demand it places on our fuel stocks.
Food shortages will follow unbelievably quickly upon the heels of any disruption to liquid fuel availability.
Based on recent UK experience it takes about 3 days before food stocks on hand are depleted.
The impact of this will be interesting. Instead of entering a "visual cornucopia" with the implied promise of everything available in any desired quantity, the food shopper will experience bare shelves and picking over other people's leavings.
My hunch is that this will have a very significant negative impact on citizen psychology. Not sure how this will play out in the elections. Cannot wait to hear what the presumptive US "Energy Czarina" has to say.
What recent UK experience?
I haven't noticed any food shortages.
You did have a transport strike in the past year or two.
The reporting on this side of the pond indicated that there were shortages of most goods within three days. It was posted on the DB at the time and there were a number of comments in regard to how the urban public was lacking knowledge of JIT inventory and of their exposure to stock problems with any impairment of transport.
"shortages of most goods"? I don't think so. The problem is nowadays one or two people find a shortage then it gets picked up by bloggers and the media who make it seem like the end of the world. In fact it was just shortage of a few goods, experienced by a handful of people.
I tried to explain at the time to guru carolyn baker that reports of food shortages were severely exaggerated, but the testimony of one who actually lives in the uk's second city just along the road from plenty of supermarkets didn't qualify for her as evidence that the media reports of some national shortage situation constituted hype.
In my experience there are regularly shortages anyway of the things I want to buy because the store has the "clever" idea of selling them half-price regardless of the fact that a regular customer such as myself would be happy just to get my regular this and that for any price.
My memory of the event was of no shortages in my area, but that the government gave in to the protestors when they were informed that widespread shortages were one day away, after seven days of disruption. There were reports of some fresh foods being hard to find, but certainly no-one went hungry.
Although I don't have the numbers before me, my state(MI) alone rivals the land mass of your fair isle.
http://www.world-map.nl/maps/political-world-map-2007.gif (big file)
Hell, even our cities are huge, the Detroit metro area is sprawled over 3 counties, it takes a solid hour, with favorable traffic, to cross it in any one direction.
That is why when I responded negatively to the poster a few days ago who was commenting that the Chevy Volts' 40 mile range was overkill compared to Toyotas plan for 8 mile ranged vehicles, a 40 mile range aint squat.
Add to this the almost total lack of any public transportation means that even should fuel allocation preference, in a disruption scenario, be given to food distribution, folks are still going to have a time getting to food.
An even better bet would be that there is NO plan held by the government for such an event.
The 40 mile all-electric range of the Volt would be very nice to have.
The question is though whether it will be affordable, as the financial environment looks......interesting.....
Drive or Starve Americans
Those that, even if given food stamps, cannot put food on the table without driving. Much less get to work.
What GM hath wrought,
Alan
I hadn't realised some of the pressures within the American planning system which favour extensivity in building:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/95447-housing-bigger-isn-t-always-better...
Let's hope some of these pressures reverse soon - after all, if you need public transport to get to work, it is a lot easier if you live in a relatively dense neighbourhood, so perhaps people will be more welcoming.
Cannot wait to hear what the presumptive US "Energy Czarina" has to say.
That's easy:
"God will provide."
"God will provide."
i propose the former and unqualified chairperson of the alaska oil and gas commission would say:
"god will provide, provided that man(or woman) will drill, drill, drill, screw the moose, caribou and polar bear they are not likely to vote for me, me, me and we all know it is all about me, me, me"
We know that all Western media, right down even to small town newspapers, are now owned by a very few establishment Moguls, who have a vested interest in not panicking the sheeple.
Intellectually, it would be better for the "Truth" to be told. Practically, however, Orson Wells in the 1930's proved that the sheeple are incapable of intelligent reactions.
ALL business is in an Unconscious conspiracy to have the truth bent for their maximum advantage. I wish it were otherwise.
As always the top 10% always seem to gain advantage over the other 90% no matter which way the game is played.
Graham
Grain shortages may not be apparent while the harvest is yet underway. They might be realized before next summer, but after the harvest, if they will occur. The cost of meat might rise. Consumers might switch to bread and bakery products, hot breakfast cereal grains, and cereal to get a more efficient use of grain. It takes about eight pounds of grain feed to make one pound of beef.
The United States has low corn inventories due to increased exports and use of corn for ethanol production. This year's corn harvest is expected to be worse than last year's harvest when inventories were higher.
The world wheat harvest was expected to be increased this year.
The United States had problems with unemployment and famine during the great depression. Unemployed people had to go to houses to beg for food, or to try to do odd jobs in exchange for food. We have seen a rapid rise in unemployment this year.
I am a futures trader. Today (Monday) front month futures are off around 20 cents at around $2.57 per gallon. Roughly speaking, you add about 1.00 worst case to arrive at the pump price which would be $3.57 a gallon.
So based on this analysis of a looming shortage, the futures markets are wrong, and I'm wondering if anyone would like to speculate as to how the front month futures price will reconcile with the pump price.
The RBOB delivery point is NY harbor. Pump prices in NJ are in the 3.30s and 3.40s today. DC up to New England hasn't topped $4 at the pump yet (after Ike).