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31 comments on Nate's Reality Report Interview - Hurricanes, Financial Markets and Peak Oil
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31 comments on Nate's Reality Report Interview - Hurricanes, Financial Markets and Peak Oil
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I think what we see now is "wild fluctuation of prices while entering the undulating plateau".
Let's wait a couple of month for the debris of the business banks settling.
The world is still burning 85 million barrels of oil a day, and I am very sure that current prices are not reflecting the equilibrium price of supply and demand.
Let's wait a couple of month for the debris of the business banks settling.
I can't image that it'll be that fast.
How long till the toxic investments of Lehman (and Merril?) get dug up marked to market? It'll be neat seeing what happens to all of the counter-party agreements Lehman had.
Demand destruction will take time. For instance Alt-A foreclosures will not really hit until next year and will continue for a year after that. There is still the whole CDS insanity to settle. Expect that to take around 2 years till we're thru the worst of the housing and be bottoming. Has anyone seen a solution to the muni bond/insurance yet - that's pretty a immediate issue?
Bank failures have barely started and demand destruction hasn't kicked in much yet. After that there will be the effects on countries supplying the unsustainable USA consumption (their own to boot) and that'll take time as jobs are lost, local economies sink and home losses take place.
The winter season will be interesting - yea old play of reserves, demand, demand destruction and whatnot.
Then there is the PEMEX issue - slow motion crash right before our eyes - a loss of supply that's going to be covered by ????
some of it should be offset by tar sand production after 2010:
Where will the natural gas be sourced from to allow all this increased tar sands production?