422 comments on No Naked Short Selling => No Short Selling at All => No Future Energy?
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422 comments on No Naked Short Selling => No Short Selling at All => No Future Energy?
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Sigh....Naked Short Selling (NSS) has always been against the law; it's just that the law hasn't been enforced for the last 40+ years. I pointed to this issue soon after becoming a member of theoildrum collective 3+ years ago. Some found the issue interesting and pursued it; and since it's mostly off topic, I rarely revisited it. NSS cost me about 1 million dollars. Actually, the equity was stolen through fraudulent stock manipulation primarily consisting of NSS. Legal short selling is another matter all together different, primarily because it's legal when executed correctly. I believe very strongly that our current financial malaise started with 2002's massive increase in predatory NSS, which many complianed about, and offered eveidence for, to the SEC, which proceded to protect the lawbreakers. I repeat, the SEC colluded with billions of dollars in NSS that ruined many investors and started the current unraveling of the financial world.
There are quite a number of people who were making 7 and 8 figures that are responsible for the current financial mess. Yes, everything happening now would never have happened if the laws and regulations were enforced. The propaganda system wants to ensure few people understand that fact.
If there's a hero in this, it's Patrick Byrne, CEO of Overstock.com, who almost singlehandliy took on the NSS pirates. Then there's the mysterious Bob O'Brien, aka theeasterbunny, aka dirtydirtydeeds, and some select others, who helped to form the National Coalition Against Naked Shortselling--NCANS. The blog and message board war carried out against the paid bashers of the NSS hedgefunds was intense and heated at times--I mean how often do you get to "debate" the people stealing your money, who know what they're doing is illegal and almost boast about they're freely breaking the law. (PDF letter from NCANS to SEC outlining position and complaints against NSS and "RReg SHO.")
It has been long standing Republican ideology that government is the problem. One should not be surprised that when such people are placed in positions to enforce the law they do not do it. The Bush administration only enforces laws that suit it. It ignores the Constitution using fear, flag waving and patriotic rhetoric to justify things that would have been unthinkable years ago.
I find it odd why NSS was not balanced with Naked Long Buying where one could buy stocks that don't exist. Maybe it would have made the fraud so obvious that even the government hating and rule of law despising Republican officials could not ignore it.
In any case I find the concept that things that are borrowed can be sold to be rather bizarre. If I rent a car and try to sell it, I would expect to be arrested. If I borrowed a friends tool and sold it, it would probably be the end of the friendship.
While short selling may make for market liquidity short term, I doubt that there is a long term benefit to it except to market makers and those specializing in it.
There are many markets that are liquid with out short selling. The labor market comes to mind. Clothing markets don't have short selling and yet no one runs around naked. Same thing goes for food items not trading on the commodity exchanges.
Short selling facilitates the market makers and the flipping of financial assets quickly. It helps to create fast market conditions where long term investment is held in contempt because no one is committed to their investments. If investments were less liquid like real estate, people would likely not be so flip about buying a particular stock or commodity.
Volume of trades would slow, much to market makers dismay, but financial decisions would hopefully become more sound since buyers would be committed for longer time periods due to illiquidity. There would still be ups and downs as in the current housing market, but I doubt the world would come to an end or that markets would cease to function.
"In any case I find the concept that things that are borrowed can be sold to be rather bizarre. If I rent a car and try to sell it, I would expect to be arrested. If I borrowed a friends tool and sold it, it would probably be the end of the friendship."
Wrong analogy. Its not a car or a tool, its a cup of sugar. I borrow it from you, to pay back tomorrow (plus a small fee). I'm guessing sugar will be cheaper tomorrow than today, so I sell today, and buy it back tomorrow. After I pay you the fee on the loan, I pocket whatever difference is left. Of course if I guess wrong, I have to pay more than I sold it for (or at least enough that I can't cover the interest I'm paying you without losing money)
Naked short skips the borrowing part. I find a buyer who wants sugar. I offer to sell him some at slightly under current price, if he waits till tomorrow for delivery. Since I don't actually own any sugar, I take my contract to the bank, show them that he's gonna pay me this much tomorrow, get a loan, and then use that to buy sugar at the last minute. Again I'm gambling that sugar will have dropped enough to give the buyer the discount, pay the interest on the short-term loan, and still leave some profit for me.
Either way, since some sugar didn't get purchased today, the odds are good that the price will drop slightly tomorrow. If we all do this, we can artificially push the price down (and then yo-yo it back up as we all try to cover our shorts, leaving the last few guys hung out for a loss)
I would describe the benefit of short selling as follows: Two parties - A and B. A owns a stock at price C. B owns none. B implicitly acknowledges the validity of price C by not buying at that price and by not selling at that price. B can only sell by a short sale since B does not own the stock. If short sales are blocked then, when B no longer acknowledges the value of C, C does not directly adjust in response. The market in the stock becomes illiquid. A eventually loses confidence in price C and sells to run away from the uncertainty.
we can argue about the benefits of short selling until we are blue in the face. given a long time horizon I might agree that short selling doesnt add a huge amount to the market. but given a long time horizon, the market doesn't add happiness or well-being to the planet or it's denizens. the issue at hand is there are hundreds of funds with trillions of dollars at their disposal - changing the rules of this magnitude is like a big ocean wave hitting a river canoe - it will teeter - it will rock back and forth, and its a coin flip whether if will capsize.
same here
basically a load of guys are just betting something is overvalued..
is it or isn't it?
are all those mortgages correctly valued or not?
I would agree with Karlof on NSS. In general, some regulation and oversight is necessary and SOME authority needs to step in take proactive action as in the well-known case of overstock.com. The repeal of Glass-Steagall was another 'free market' disaster.
Karlof1,
I feel your pain on the naked short selling issue. As you say it's simply a case of ordinary fraud. Even the most libertarian, laissez-faire free market proponents recognize that the government has a policing role in preventing fraud. I think that part of what happened is that selling short is conceptually slightly difficult for the average person (even more difficult for politicians). Since selling short in futures markets is completely normal, fair, and integral to the central concept of futures markets, somehow it's not obvious that shorting equities is not strictly analogous to selling commodities contracts into the future. If you allow shorting of a common stock without borrowing it, it’s functionally equivalent to counterfeiting the stock and selling it on the open market.
However, I think that an explanation of the current financial meltdown is incomplete without considering the unprecedented credit expansion. In his book Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles, Jesus Huerta Desoto gives an interesting historical overview of the phenomenon of boom and bust credit cycles caused by bankers using fractional reserve banking. It's been going on since antiquity and is always characterized by bankers co-opting the political system to create inflationary booms followed by busts. In fact, the current debacle is only unprecedented in its scope. The grand scale of this boom and bust seems to me like an outgrowth of digital information processing. There is no way that the bookkeeping required for the massive de novo creation of financial derivatives could have been done without electronic digital processing and storage. This issue is currently mostly framed in political terms but it seems to me that it is largely a technical problem of how to regulate fractional reserve banking in an era where the "moneyness of credit" (to quote Doug Noland) has taken money creation out of the hands of central banks.