422 comments on No Naked Short Selling => No Short Selling at All => No Future Energy?
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422 comments on No Naked Short Selling => No Short Selling at All => No Future Energy?
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I'm predicting a war with Iran in the near future. These market moves will have a negative impact on the oil industry and future projects well beyond the current price decline. Even if I'm wrong about war with Iran in the short term in the longer term the chance of war in the world just went up 1000% fold.
These above ground events and others will serve to disrupt supply and to some extent demand over the coming years masking the geological potential production. In many cases producible oil will be left in the ground because of war.
This is what I mean by we will never know. We may never pump oil at anything like the current rate literally any day now. And we may never return to the point that we ever again extract oil at its maximum rate.
In my opinion these above ground factors have probably resulted in and effective peak geologic or not I doubt we ever pump as much oil going forward as we are right now. But on the same hand we will never know when the real i.e geologic peak happened.
This is the key point, imo. I've always maintained that once Peak Oil became an established reality, it would be the geopolitical environment - in reaction to that reality - that would determine the fate of the industrialized world.
It will be the moves that nations make which will ascertain how the remaining supply of oil will be dispensed, not the total quantity of recoverable oil itself. Thus, PO, though a highly significant factor in the coming demise of this global society, will not be the determinative one. When all is said and done, significant amounts of oil will forever lie untouched, as mankind starts all over again.