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100 comments on How Much Will Gustav and Ike Affect Gas Supplies? An Update.

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memmel on September 20, 2008 - 5:15am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

One thing I'd like to say as we figure out our real MOL is in general we have and excess of service stations. I rarely pull up to a pump and have to wait at all.
At most one car is in front of me. But this excess of pumps does not necessarily translate into a large reserve in the gasoline at the station. And of course these same stations are filled from a few local supply terminals. So on one had having 80% of the stations out of gas simply means longer lines but on the other this means to depo supplying them is incapable of filling local storage. This means for mean to get gasoline initially I go from zero wait to say 10 cars in line. But if it cuts to say 90% I may face a 100 car line.

Lots of cool exponential cascades possible.

But whats far worse is we have the pavlov's dog in effect which is a insidious version of the tragedy of the commons.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivan_Pavlov

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons

The real underlying reason that gasoline inventories are low is because of lack of oil but a short term disruption is seen is the cause. Thus the dog i.e the US Consumer has now been trained to deal with inconvience and high prices to access a common good which was before readily accessible.

They see it is simply a slightly more complex maze to be traversed to reach the end goal. And more importantly the training is not broken.

This crossing of improper responses to stimuli with access to greener pastures any minute is a powerful phenomena.

It shows how we have no problem trading time ( waiting in line ) for rewards ( fuel).

And furthermore its considered temporary by all local players. They cannot be convinced from this point on that the commons is permanetly smaller
and no amount of waiting will result in more fuel later.

This is combination results in the formation of a cargo cult.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_cult

And the people begin to believe that if they just wait in line supplies will show up.
Thus the long term effects of peak oil coupled with the assumption of short term causes results in effectively group insanity.
I.e cargo cults caused by crossing pavlov's dog with the lack of commons.

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Matt on September 20, 2008 - 6:34am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It shows how we have no problem trading time ( waiting in line ) for rewards ( fuel).

Not yet. But wait until it becomes a daily, regular time budget problem. Then behaviour may change to more premanent "solutions" like car pooling.

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ryvr on September 23, 2008 - 6:09pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"Not yet." Yeah.

I am actually impressed with the orderliness of my fellow man at the moment.

Here in Asheville, NC, most gas stations are closed. The few that are open have lines up to a mile long, and people are bringing spare gas cans.

It seems they're ok waiting for hours in line at the moment, but it is looking like we will have real and major shortfalls of supply, and I'm not so confident people are going to see the world as business-as-usual then as they seem to even now with the lines and hoarding.

I'm glad they can wait in long lines and not riot, but what about when they hit empty next time?

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souperman2 on September 20, 2008 - 11:39am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Great analogy Memmel.

This can be applied to many other areas of society.

The big glaring example would be economics. People are, for the most part, not too troubled about increasing expenses and stagnant or declining income because soon we will "hit bottom" and then things will improve and they will prosper. That’s what they have been trained to believe.

I forget where the term came from it says a lot;

Americans believe they are all just pre-rich.

WOW! are they in for a surprise.

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wisconsin_cur on September 20, 2008 - 9:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Great insight! It helps me understand some of the responses I am seeing in people around me... this, of course, cannot end well for everything that postpones how long it take the mainstream to begin to adapt in any meaningful way the less resources (of any sort) are available for such a transition.

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Gail the Actuary on September 21, 2008 - 12:41am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I have read that some of the major brands of service stations are trying to keep some stations open in each part of town. They do this be letting some go dry for a while, and fill up others. There isn't really enough gat to keep all the stations ope, but they can try to keep a rotating group of them open.

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Dragonfly41 on September 21, 2008 - 8:14am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

What is so odd about this whole scenario is that there is so much disparity between regions right now. I understand there are different major pipelines servicing different regions from different origination points, but is there really no way to balance things out between regions? Is it that difficult to take resources from the Midwest to help out the SE and NE? During this whole episode, KC, MO has seen unleaded prices briefly go up, but now prices are once again descending, currently under $3.40/gallon.

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clifman on September 21, 2008 - 10:04am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

This is just conjecture on my part, but if we're at or below MOL, which posters well-versed in the industry have been warning about for some time on here, then the only way to keep any flow going at all is to cut off some delivery points. There's not enough to keep the pressure up in all the pipelines, so some must be shut off or at least down to keep most of the system operating. It appears from what has been said on here that just this is happening, and that the most vulnerable points are taking turns with little or no delivery, so the rest of the nation can have BAU. The alternative is shutting down the whole system until stocks are back above MOL. Don't think that's doable politically, nor sensible logistically.

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WNC Observer on September 23, 2008 - 2:03pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Which makes me wonder if Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee are being made to suffer so that the poor dears in and around the Imperial Capital won't have to suffer any inconvenience?

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100 comments on How Much Will Gustav and Ike Affect Gas Supplies? An Update.

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