The Oil Drum | Gloom and Doom - with a smile - the ASPO-USA 4 meeting in Sacramento

55 comments on Gloom and Doom - with a smile - the ASPO-USA 4 meeting in Sacramento

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noutram on September 23, 2008 - 6:54am

Sounds like a good set of presentations -are we going to get them posted here at some point?

Regarding:

She (Gail) noted that as oil supply drops, so will likely GDP, based on (among other things) an analysis of Robert Hirsch’s showing that there is approximately a one to one correlation between the change in oil supply and change in GDP.

Assuming we are about to go into a NET energy decline then unless our ability to increase efficiency is greater than the decline rate I have to agree. We may find that there is a fundamental shift towards 'efficiency' in the coming decades as a sort of major Industry in itself. The societal transformation will be complete when people boast not of their vehicles Horsepower but of how many miles per gallon (L/Km) it is able to get and have this comment received with the respect it deserves...

Regards, Nick.

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snuffy on September 23, 2008 - 9:19am

I rarely see a get-together I regret not attending.This,however is one.

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Heading Out on September 23, 2008 - 10:15am

We were promised that the presentations would be posted to the ASPO web site about 24 hours (plus minus) after the meeting. The organisers have done a great job in putting this together, and it seems to be flowing a lot better than last year, so I would cut them at least 15 minutes slack over that estimate.

I am not sure that we will post the individual papers, there is so much else to comment on, but from past experience they will be referred to frequently in posts in the year ahead (with references).

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Gail the Actuary on September 23, 2008 - 10:15am

ASPO-USA has said they will have the presentations up about 24 hours after the end of the conference. I'm imagine we will have posts about most of the presentations.

It has been a good opportunity to get better acquainted with some of the TOD staff and to meet some TOD readers. Quite a few of the readers have ideas for articles I should write. I'll have to see how much I can get done.

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JohnMashey on September 25, 2008 - 2:33am

1) It was a great conference: I was sad only that there weren't 3 of me to cover all 3 tracks on Sunday.... Thanks goodness Mon/Tues were single-tracked.

2) As for energy & efficiency, I really recommend Robert Ayres' paper, http://www.cge.uevora.pt/aspo2005/abscom/ASPO2005_Ayres.pdf, see especially the last page, which models the US economy as a function of technical efficiency, and it's not pretty. Then, that might excite people to go back and read the paper. From that, it's pretty clear we have to go all-out on both efficiency and building renewable energy supplies while we still have high-EROI fuel to use.

3) Some interesting people already think efficiency is a major industry.

See Art Rosenfeld on Efficiency, or any of his stuff.

Also, see PG&E CEO Peter Darbee on efficiency.

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