55 comments on Gloom and Doom - with a smile - the ASPO-USA 4 meeting in Sacramento
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55 comments on Gloom and Doom - with a smile - the ASPO-USA 4 meeting in Sacramento
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GAIA Host Collective
One thing I noticed at the conference was a different type of concern based on age. The younger folk were focused on solutions and doing something. The older peakers and those particularily with some experience with government were polite, but one got the sense that they know it is too late and little if anything can be done. I would call it a sad resignation. One young staffer came up to me and complained that none of the speakers were addressing solutions, perhaps that is for tomorrows sessions. I got the distinct impression that Dr. Peter Wells was calling for a peak around 2015, others called for a peak around 2015, it is not important, peak is our doom whenever it shows up. A great deal of information was to be had at the conference and I enjoyed it, except for the chicken taco salad at lunch on Monday, I looked at the uninspired mound of fodder and saw George Bush's face, the face of mediocrity, mendacity, and financial ruin.
One young staffer came up to me and complained that none of the speakers were addressing solutions
I will. I have a mix of debunking, but also I have slides on "Contenders" and "Solutions." One thing I am going to say is that I don't want to be the guy who debunked everything and solved nothing.
My biofuels talk is coming up shortly.
Well done Robert, IMHO the date is not hugely important, whether it was 2005 or now or real soon now doesn't really matter. What we need now is people working to make the best of our situation. i know that some say there is nothing we can do but being an optimist I would like to hope we can do something to preserve our knowledge for the future even if that future is pretty bleak.
I try to think, if the future of all human civilisation depended on me, what would I do, how would I be?
Good comments from all. I do hope transcripts will be available. Xavier was the most poignant although I think he could have been a bit more harsh on the shrub. My mother remembers FDR talking at great length on the radio when there were crises and she said having bush pop out and back in reminded her of a cuckoo clock. It is a fundamental tenet of faith of TOD that GDP is linked to cheap available fossil energy and that GDP decline is likely when Peak Oil decline sets in and it appears that Gail laid this out nicely. Most of us believe PO will pose a real shock to the economic system. But the the recent implosion in DC and Wall Street adds what seems to be a black swan event of potentially dangerous magnitude. John Michael Greer's latest book makes the distinction between a "Predicament" and a "Problem". Problems may have solutions but a predicament may not. He gives the example of how "death" is a type of predicament. You cannot solve death. It does not have a solution. You can only adapt to that predicament. It may be that we are in the throes of a financial predicament of momentous magnitude. Henry Kissinger in the midst of the Balkans Crisis said "Whatever you do will be wrong, including nothing." This so called "cash for trash" solution bailing out the villains by taxing the serfs has the potential of fomenting revolution. I for one hope it fails. As a determined peak oil worrier, I really didn't need this right now.
Of the solutions I've seen discussed here on TOD, the "best" IMO:
If I ran the circus, that's what I'd be deploying RFN.
And if you could somehow come up with $700B, you could do that...
On finding out about PO a couple of years ago I made it my business to speak to some senior people in the oil & gas industries.
They confirmed the threat ... but, as you say, were surprisingly gloomy.
For example, one just-retired Chief Engineer of an oil major said to me: "My family tell me that 'something will turn up'". He then added very quietly "Of course nothing will."
I also spoke to the very wealthy major shareholder of a large oil company. He said effectively: "We will soon face very challenging times. God will provide."
I don't recollect anyone senior that I have spoken to expressing boundless joy & confidence about hydrogen, tar sands, shale etc.
Um! While I am willing to accept that I am old, I am less willing to accept that some of us older folks weren't in at least part of our presentations, suggesting some fruitful lines of investigation.
If, by solutions, you mean "business as usual" then there aren't any. We are going to have to change how we live, the only questions are how we change. Borrowing from Tainter, there are potential ways to increase complexity and energy consumption to a yet higher level, but even those changes will require that we reorganize our lives. And there are, of course, the possibilities of lower energy consumption and lowered social complexity (either voluntarily or via collapse).
Regardless though, life as we've known it is going to change and fairly radically. It's up to us how that change occurs, being able to choose from viable choices. Only if we fail to choose first and in a sustainable way, will nature choose instead. But if we dally until nature chooses, we may not get a chance to alter that choice in any meaningful manner.