This is an open thread, since the DrumBeat is getting kind of long.

So why such a wide price window 85 -> 160 this time?

Previous polls by Pr. Goose had much smaller windows, and I think he was following some kind of "system".

Did you just pick arbitrary high and low values for this poll?

We've been discussing increasing the range, because oil has been so volatile. We've been going through these polls like crazy. They're supposed to last longer than a couple of days. We can't keep up.

In today's DrumBeat, someone suggested $200, $250, or even $1,000 for the upper limit (and $1 for lower limit). I thought that was a bit extreme.

So I picked 30% either way from the closing price. I suppose I should have moved to the new front month, which would be 30% from $109 instead of $120. But I like the idea of breaking new ground (new record high, or breaking through a floor we haven't seen for awhile).

One Trillion bailout, not just for US financial groups, but foreign as well? This isn't just about peak oil, but the dollar. I see the precipice, just within view. How long before the US is declared bankrupt and we can speak of US citizens as 'enronized'? I didn't enjoy being correct last time. This is going to get ugly rather quickly. I don't see any way for this to go other than hyperinflation. We need criminal investigations of the advisers to the current leading presidential contenders for setting up the deregulation that created this predictable calamity, namely McCain's Phil Graham (and his wife Wendy) and Obama's Lawrence H. Summers and Robert E. Rubin.

It's not a done deal yet.

lol, Leanan does have a sense of humor!

by Jason Linkins , The Huffington Post, September 22, 2008

A critical - and radical - component of the bailout package proposed by the Bush administration has thus far failed to garner the serious attention of anyone in the press. Section 8 (which ironically reminds one of the popular name of the portion of the 1937 Housing Act that paved the way for subsidized affordable housing ) of this legislation is just a single sentence of thirty-two words, but it represents a significant consolidation of power and an abdication of oversight authority that's so flat-out astounding that it ought to set one's hair on fire. It reads, in its entirety:
Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.
In short, the so-called "mother of all bailouts," which will transfer $700 billion taxpayer dollars to purchase the distressed assets of several failed financial institutions, will be conducted in a manner unchallengeable by courts and ungovernable by the People's duly sworn representatives. All decision-making power will be consolidated into the Executive Branch - who, we remind you, will have the incentive to act upon this privilege as quickly as possible, before they leave office. The measure will run up the budget deficit by a significant amount, with no guarantee of recouping the outlay, and no fundamental means of holding those who fail to do so accountable.

--

My comment: Hey, when you're down 9 trillion, what's one more? Done deal? Oh yes it is.

This is unbelievable! I remember an interview of Paulson in 2005 on CNBC, he was so upbeat about the state of the economy, saying that there was no visible or foreseen slow down in the housing market and the economy was strong, etc. whereas most economic blogs were buzzing already about an housing bubble burst of epic proportion! I thought he was on crack at that time.

Well, here we are now, 3 years later. I think he should resign.

On NPR this morning it was characterized like this [paraphrased]--->

Excecutive Branch to Congress:

"Oh, by the way Congress, It's nice to have you around but you are no longer relevant."

This isn't just about peak oil, but the dollar.

On one hand, it's hard to see where the prices are going, it's easier to figure out where they are coming from.

Most of the people who participate in the financial markets at the highest levels ... hedge fund managers, equity money managers, commodities traders, currency traders ... are sophisticated and have good analytical tools. When they read the Treasury's plan to trade good money for banks' toxic paper ... they not only come to the conclusion the government has gone insane, they act on it.

What's happening in the credit markets is a giant bubble is bursting. The Treasury is trying desperately to keep it inflated. In the 'old days' when the government did something stupid and pointless, the bond market would react by lifting interest rates. Interest rates matter to the government ... which borrows trillions.

Bond traders became known as the 'Bond Vigilantes'. This was in the 1970's and 80'a.

Currency traders as well the bond traders would hedge their positions in Treasuries in the bond markets. The market is large enough to make a difference.

In the intervening years, the Fed has made it impossible to raise bond yields outside of a narrow range. One strategy has been for the Fed to manipulate the futures market by concentrating their buying and selling activities there. Their allies have been the big investment banks that are currently disappearing.

With the bond market unavailable to hedge currency and interest rate risk, traders have turned to the crude market as a synthetic bond market, a place to offset risk in dollars and dollar denominated securities. Instead of strangling the Treasury at the ATM, the public is strangled at the gas pumps.

Think of this $16 jump in crude price as the markets' 'vote' on the Treasury's Bailout plan ...

http://stevefromvirginia.blogspot.com/

Your blog spot appeals for higher interest rates for savers. Being a saver I can sympathize with that view. Real interest rates on savings are below zero giving no incentive to save.

However, we still live in a globalized economy. If interest rates rise here, the Japanese, Chinese or the wealthy oil exporting economies of the Middle East will rush to put money into the U.S. economy driving them down again. Savers have to compete with the Japanese whose interest rate is effectively zero and who have lots of money.

Buying appreciating assets like oil, gold or farm land is the only way out of this dilemma for savers IMO. Personally I like farm land. It is hard for anyone to steal it. It makes you an instant business person with the associated tax write offs plus you can live on it thereby reducing living expenses. It is not as easy as putting money in CDs but the reward seems to be higher over time.

I vote for farm land. Eventually we will all need to provide/create food and biomass energy. If you have food or the capacity to grow food it will be much more valuable than gold.

I disagree with your statement that farmland is hard to steal its trivial to steal just set the taxes higher then the profit margin on your product and pretty soon the state owns all the land.

Stealing of good farmland by the rich and powerful is a time honored profession probably the second oldest one.

Next as far as I can tell a lot of farmland is in a pricing bubble right now from the corn ethanol squeeze and at least in the US we have more than enough farmland to supply our population with food and enough for export.

Given that industrial agricultural will eventually get squeezed to the point that profit margins are lost as fuel and fertilizer prices increase we can expect a glut of formally good farmland laced with chemicals on the market.

Leaving all this fallow and reverting it back to sustainable agriculture will take some time but most importantly the land itself will have to be very cheap for quite some time to support reverting back to long fallow periods.

And last but not least on of the big drivers in land prices has been suburban expansion as this wanes land in general will revert back to being inline with its productive value.

And finally in the US at least the distribution of productive farmland and population is heavily distorted and abnormal with the larger cities located in some of the least productive regions. As transportation costs climb local but poorer land may well become more valuable then distant richer farmland.

And finally of course the distortion effect of subsidies.
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C01E0DC173EF935A15751C1A...

Thus as a serious investment farmland does not look all that good to me it should lose 75-50% of its current price if not more.

I often get a lot of flack for making these statements but right now and for some time in the future investing in farmland for monetary gain is probably foolish. If you can afford to write off most of the money you put into farmland now and simply want the asset for its productive value then fine but its should not be treated as a good investment. At some point the rich that have bought up a lot of the farmland will dump the holding to raise cash and when they do farmland prices will plummet.

Hi memmel,

So...

1) What do you think *is* a good investment - (if anything)?

2) An anecdote from a recent National Geographic article
(http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2008/09/soil/mann-text/6)
involving a different version of the "improve land and lose it" story,

about farmer named Yacouba Sawadogo in Burkina Faso(excerpts):

"Sawadogo, too, laid cordons pierreux across his fields. But during the dry season he also hacked thousands of foot-deep holes in his fields—zaï, as they are called, a technique he had heard about from his parents. Sawadogo salted each pit with manure, which attracted termites. The termites digested the organic matter, making its nutrients more readily available to plants. Equally important, the insects dug channels in the soil. When the rains came, water trickled through the termite holes into the ground. In each hole Sawadogo planted trees. "Without trees, no soil," he says. The trees thrived in the looser, wetter soil in each zai. Stone by stone, hole by hole, Sawadogo turned 50 acres of wasteland into the biggest private forest for hundreds of miles.

Surveyors went through the property, slicing it into tenth-of-an-acre parcels marked by heavy stakes. As the original owner, Sawadogo will be allotted one parcel; his older children will also each receive land. Everything else will be sold off, probably next year. He watched helplessly as city officials pounded a stake in his bedroom floor. Another lot line cut through his father's grave. Today Yacouba Sawadogo is trying to find enough money to buy the forest in which he has invested his life. Because he has made the land so valuable, the price is impossibly high: about $20,000."

"the public is strangled at the gas pumps"
Come on Steve you're having a laugh, Americans pay a ridiculously low price for gas so hardly being strangled. Take a look at European prices.

The big investment banks are already dead, the last two are to convert into tightly regulated bank holding companies. The US taxpayer bail-out of America’s banking sector will reverberate for many years. The US Treasury was already planning to borrow $400bn+ next year to shore up the budget deficit. That could now rise to $1 trillion or more - a significant number. This is not the sort of change you find down the back of the sofa. Failures now have a "get out of jail/bankruptcy free" card. Please tell the voters don't worry TPTB are "doing something".

Unfortunately the gap between the Fed funds rate and the Libor rate (rate at which banks lend to each other) has jumped to the widest for a very long time showing banks don't trust each other. This trillion of extra Treasuries should depress price (more supply less demand) so increasing yields (rates), higher rates will push up mortgage rates etc so slowing the economy. Rinse and repeat, vicious circle??

So as the dollar goes down oil goes up in symetry. Expect more calls against speculators.

Meanwhile over in Denmark, Ebh Bank put itself up for sale yesterday as it cut its profit forecast to zero and removed CEO Strier Poulsen after bad real-estate related loans were larger than expected. Sound familiar? Many senior managers at banks simply did not understand how their institution funded itself. Things have improved but they can still be blindsided by sudden events. That's another fine mess they've gotten us into.

Yeah... I was just reading the DrumBeat... I guess I should have started with that, before the poll.

One thing is now perfectly clear. Speculation is a huge factor in the price of oil. Another thing that is implied by that fact is that Peak Oil will occurr in spite of (or regardless of) price.

My guess is that the worse the fallout from the reordering of American and global capitalism the higher the price of oil in the near term. If we have a global depression, prices could fall deeply. How's that for hedging?

Too big of a price swing for the time limit, Leanan. You should increase the time limit if you're going to increase the targets. If you ask whether the price can hit $160 within 120 days, you have a much more interesting question.

If we can jump from around 100 to 130 in one day, I think we could see anything between 80 and 200 over the next 60 days. Nothing would be too surprising, although I'll admit 200 would be hard to hit because there would be massive profit taking at anything above 130.

These price swings are crazy...

But it has been noted that the really big jump only happened on the october futures. So the size of the spike there may have had something to do with it being the last day of trading in october futures.

Now that we are looking at november as the front month, there is not such a huge spike in the graph.

http://www.ibtimes.com/commodities/data/chart.htm?page=chart&sym=CLX8&mc...

I wonder if it might be better to only look at spot prices for the poll, to eliminate these kinds of "volatility effects" near the end of the trading cycle.

I guess if I can still add a comment, the range was not wide enough?

Chris