Rubin was quite strong in this idea that high oil is the end of globalization. He noted that at $150, oil was the same as a quadrupling of the tariff rates of 2000.

He also noted that at $100, oil is 40% of shipping costs, at $200, it is 80%.

In a similar vein, the following day speaker Michael Boyd noted that the ave flight in 2008 sold for $191, while the cost of fuel for that flight was $138. He was surprisingly upbeat, it seemed to me, about the future of flight.

You do have to figure the stealth inflation of added fees. That $191 airfare is more like $212 when you add the $15 for one checked bag and $6 for a cold sandwich. Let's see how long they can keep up this charade of low published fares.