78 comments on The First Wave Energy Farm of the World...It's About Time...
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78 comments on The First Wave Energy Farm of the World...It's About Time...
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Sounds like "we are losing a dollar on each one, but we'll make it up on volume" type of deal.
I wonder what justification did they present to get those taxpayers money? It doesn't make sense to subsidize an energy source if it's not shown that costs will drop to a competitive level in the long run. In this case wave should compete with the next better renewable energy source - wind, and from these numbers I don't see any advantage, not even potential one.
I see at least three areas of potential advantage which these numbers cannot offer any answers, yet.
Electricity Price
Equipment Durability/Replacability
Sea Conditions
1. Is it reasonable to assume that a price of .12 euro/kwh would stand for the next 15 years? I don't expect the cost of electricity in the US to be so kind. So ROI could improve considerably. (Could worsen, too, I suppose)
2. Constantly Moving parts + Salt Water + Storms. and YET, Modern Materials, Replaceable Seals/Joints, Many industries that are experienced with building for the Seas, etc.. Who knows whether that 15 year estimate is going to prove too short or too long. I won't be placing any bets.. except that this number is going to change. But even at the end-of-life, will there be major elements, like the float-pontoons that can be re-applied to the next generation, cutting the replacement costs signifigantly? How long do tanker/freighter-hulls last?
3. The output of a Pelamis-farm is, of course one of Prime Locations .. rougher seas and proximity to the end-users/grid connections will affect the earnings and payback, while the ruggedness of the equipment will probably reveal just how extreme a condition these systems will operate profitably in (if profitable at all)
A lot of potential.. and a lot of risk.
Bob
1.If the price of electricity goes up (which certainly will) the cost side of these projects will go up too.
2.Two years ago some readers pointed that 15 years is an optimistic estimate for semi-submerged steel structures. As for other materials let's hope they kick in soon.
3. Let's hope things go better in Scotland and Cornwall, but we get pretty rough seas during winter. And take in account that above a certain wave amplitude pelamis shuts in.
But of course, the energy rates are going up AFTER you've built the installation, and while it's gleaning the benefits of higher prices. You're not buying and fabricating that steel over the lifetime of the device, only at the beginning, when prices are ostensibly their best. This mirrors the argument for many of the renewables that take a big investment, but stand to have a considerable upside, particularly if the energy scene worsens, as I think we agree that it must..
Anyway, by and large I agree with your cautious view in this post, save that I don't think the figures really tell us nearly enough to know if this idea really has positive or negative buoyancy.
Best,
Bob
But if the NEROI is close to 0%, then that's just a system for hoarding energy today for use later when its more expensive.
The argument in its favor sounds like the infant industry argument, but its more along the lines of putting a wide range of bets on technological development, given that if only some of them pay off, they will pay off well enough to cover the whole range of bets.
In that strategy, there does need to be a way of sunsetting the losers ... perhaps allow a technology specific feed-in tariff for a decade, after which time it lapses to the baseline feed-in tariff that any renewable, sustainable energy source qualifies for.
My issue with wave power of this kind is pretty fundamental - to be useful, a wave power device has to move with quite small waves, yet it also survive waves with perhaps 100 times the energy.
Building an oil rig which simply has to disregard all waves is a much easier challenge.
I'd expect that one of the pivotal (?!) decisions to be made is what wavelength(s) to scale your equipment for.
As I toy with images for wavepower extraction, I think of something like the Pelamis, perhaps, but have an array of 'millipede legs' extending off the sides as well, with floats at the ends.. these would be activated by smaller waves and incidental movements of the system.
For surviving heavier weather, I wonder if it's flexibility isn't actually a benefit instead of a problem.. as long as it has enough resilience and range so that it doesn't end up hitting 'hard stops' at full extension of a joint, which would eventually tear apart. The wear on the mooring and related tie lines might also have potential for using those forces to both create more energy and to introduce more malleability into the overall system..
Or to look at it somewhat esoterically..
I'd think a millipede would have too many moving parts. But it looks like there's quite a bit of room to move up the number-of-joints/pontoon-length ratio for Pelamis.
More joints and shorter pontoons for shorter wavelengths. I wonder if the design we see here isn't just three joints for a quick feasibility demonstration?
Kyoto.