45 comments on From ASPO-USA to MinExpo - a Study in Contrasts
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45 comments on From ASPO-USA to MinExpo - a Study in Contrasts
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Well, we will probably need a lot more agricultural workers. Perhaps the law school graduates could form agricultural working groups and discuss the finer points of contact law while they are picking lettuce.
I am amazed at the number of Peak Oil aware parents who assume that there will be cushy white collar "policy making" positions available for their little darlings--while someone else's kids do the real work of trying to provide food and energy supplies.
A quick question or two, then a comment. You state that India has 264 billion tons of estimated reserves. Is this the same as the USGS definition of resources? You also state that they have 102 billion tons of proven reserves. This is 80 years of production at current rates. So in essence, a child born today in India could with some probability outlive the production of coal from proven reserves in that county. You also state that demand is expected to rise pretty rapidly over the next half decade or so. This will decrease the number of years India can mine it's existing reserves prior to depletion.
I realize that as proven reserves are consumed, more and more of the estimated reserves/resources will become economically viable. but the cost and difficulty in production will also continue to rise. If the amount of estimated reserves is accurate, and with increase in demand based on increase in population inevitable, It appears that India has around two lifetimes +/- of coal as an energy resource left. In the course of human history that is a blink of the eye.
Peak oil, a decrease in energy, base and precious metal reserves, and continuing increase in human population and demands. What next?
As always, the years supply is (almost) always given as if there were no change in the consumption rate. It is starting to dawn on some people that the exponential consumption time very quickly shortens the "actual" reserves left if on considers growth.
For example, that 200-250 year US reserve that is often quoted lasts but 80-87 years if you consider a growth rate of ~2.2% per year. Throw in a dramatic coal-to-liquids program and it's easy to demonstrate that the US coal reserves quickly drop to a couple of decades.
Yes, it's all "a blink of the eye" in time.
When one considers that coal will be needed to replace shortfalls in oil and gas, the situation is far worse still.
Resource and reserve calculations for coal are somewhat different to those for oil. You are still constrained in how far from a known (as in mined or drilled) site one can project that the deposit extends out. If it extends out less than a quarter of a mile it can still be called a reserve. Beyond that point it is only an "inferred resource", and that only out for a distance of up to three miles (as my memory recalls). Because coal does not flow like oil or gas, it is much more likely to be in place all the way between two boreholes, than is the likely case if oil and gas are found. Thus the final reserves, as they are proved, may, in fact, be larger than the currently defined resource.
On the other hand the presence of faults, washouts and other geological features can make what might otherwise be a highly desirable site (see Glenrothes in Scotland) uneconomic to mine. Plus I don't know the other constraints on the definition or reserve and resource in India (and these are, I suspect, their numbers not the USGS ones) so these are likely more ballpark than reliable numbers.