It's about our creditors.

"Asia Needs Deal to Prevent Panic Selling of U.S. Debt, Yu Says"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=anZHfo6tQi60

"We are in the same boat, we must cooperate,'' Yu said in an interview in Beijing on Sept. 23."

"An agreement is needed so that no nation rushes to sell, ``causing a collapse,'' Yu said. Japan is the biggest owner of U.S. Treasury bills, holding $593 billion, and China is second with $519 billion. Asian countries together hold half of the $2.67 trillion total held by foreign nations."

And the understatement of the year;

"Whether some kind of agreement between them to continue to hold Treasury bills is viable, I'm not sure,'' said James McCormack, head of sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings Ltd in Hong Kong. ``It would be unusual. If it became apparent that sovereigns in Asia were selling Treasuries the market would take that quite badly, it's something to be avoided."

It would be more than a sell off, it would also mean the end of purchases. The end.

Some choice doomer porn here.

This from a friend in Atlanta with strong banking connections: "Reliable word that Bank of America branch managers just received a letter or memo from the USFed instructing them to perhaps be ready for a one-week universal shut-down of the banking system, including access to checking accounts, savings accounts and credit cards. Reliable word has it that BofA bank branches received a shipment of signs last week, reading "WE'RE SORRY, BUT DUE TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL, WE CANNOT BE OPEN AT THIS TIME."

Spreading rumors?

Bad Leanan

No soup for you

;-}

EDIT: Denninger has looked deeper and now believes its all about our creditors. Hmmmmmmmm.

http://www.youtube.com/user/kdenninger

Economic warfare?

OOps I ment to tack this on to my comment up thread about the bailout. solly bout dat

On CNBC it was stated that banks stopped loaning to each other because if one of them goes out of business the loan is not FDIC insured.

PLEASE READ:

Just stated on C-SPAN by one of the reps (forgot the name...damn... He was last to speak before adjourning.) I am paraphrasing:

We were told if we did not vote for the bill Monday the markets drop thousands that day and the next. We were told we would see Martial Law.

WTF????

Do people not understand when they are being extorted? Do you need to know anything else to know this bill is a pile of steaming BS?

Wow... what has this nation come to...

Cheers

Emanuel? Hoyer? LaTourette?
I just read those names off the c-span website, but i don't have real media player. I'd say search around the website and if you find that, post it to youtube.

He is talking about Congressional Martial Law. I did hear that Pelosi invoked it. It's not good, since it speeds up the legislative process and means there's less time to consider the bill. But it's not the kind of martial law the executive branch can declare.

Congressional Martial Law has been invoked before.

Martial law, in this context, is a fast track approach to Congress, but the question remains: are the numbers there for passage tomorrow? If the House Republicans were reluctant to vote for a bill on Monday that they read beforehand, are they going to be more willing to back another slate of legislation that is admittedly obscure? Especially when placing one's full trust and reputation on the reliability of the originators... behind close doors, away from the spotlight, with the public howling for blood.

Notwithstanding the clamor from Wall Street and the big boys from the Executive, I would say the odds of passage have diminished not improved since the beginning of the week.

One would think clandestine activities would only heighten the wariness of elected officials to stand against the public outcry.

Then again, what I know about American politics up until now could be written on the cover of a matchbook.

are the numbers there for passage tomorrow?

Who knows? They added a lot of "sweeteners," but that may turn off as many as it lures. Maybe what's happening (global meltdown) is enough to scare them into voting for it. Even if they don't think it will work...they don't want to be the one who killed it if the economy implodes.

No, is a different reference. The speaker in question was the final speaker before the session was closed on Thursday. He was not talking about Pelosi nor the House's processes, he was talking, quite clearly, about the scare tactics used by Paulson. (How the hell does Paulson invoke Martial Law? I doubt seriously Paulson knew of such a provision. I didn't.) He described the public events Paulson claimed might flow from not acting. The representative in question was discussing the initial meetings in which Paulson did his best to scare the hell out of them.

He could not have been discussing Congressional Martial Law because 1. that was done by Pelosi and 2. that WAS enacted.

Our Congress was told the US would essentially fall into chaos if they didn't pass this bill on Monday.

Totally inappropriate.

Cheers

Yes. I saw it live. I had just stumbled across it and was going to post it but you already had.

The only way they can pass this bill is by creating and maintaining a panic atmosphere. That atmosphere is not justified. Many of us were told in private conversations that if we voted against this bill on Monday... the markets would fall 2 or 3,000 points the first day, another couple thousand the second day, and a few members were even told that there would be Martial Law in America if we voted no.

Cheers

Of Crashes, Failures and Bailouts - Round III

No. That is from a few days ago. What I saw was LIVE, Thursday evening,end of the session. The House was essentially empty.

Cheers

Are you sure he wasn't talking about "Congressional Martial Law"?

It's a procedural thing, that speeds up legislation. It's not what most people think of when they think of martial law.

I smell the smell of a engineered collapse..

Wonder if the sign company made them pay cash? ;)

I looked at the link-- there isn't any attribution or documentation other than "a friend in Atlanta."

Leanan-- do you think it wise to post this sort of thing? Is it not irresponsible?

Mind you, I agree with O'Neill, above, and Ilargi and all of the Greek chorus that intones catastrophe, but this kind of post could start a bank run.

Maybe you just want to see how many people actually read TOD?

Jim Willie is a gold bug, but not a kook. At least, no kookier than usual for this site.

I read your post but I didn't open the link-now you have my attention. Jim Willie is kinda wild but he has made some pretty impressive calls IMO.

It could be part of a disinformation campaign, by the banks, to continue to scare Americans into supporting the bailout bill. Who stands to gain the most if the bill passes?

WT

It may be bad info, But Willie would NOT knowingly be part of a It could be part of a disinformation campaign, by the banks. (nor naively suckered into it. He knows the plays AND the game)

Willie has been around the block enough times and should be weighted.

It could well be false, but Jim Willie is NOT a Rense et al weird site/writer.

I've been reading him for about 4 years and he has been way ahead of the curve most of the time.

btw, he's outside the US in Costa Rica I think...

If anyone has not read him before read some of his past stuff before you judge.

Look at these.

Corruption, Whispers & Receivership
September 24, 2008
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2008/0924.html

Panic, Consolidate, Game Over
September 18, 2008
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2008/0918.html

I agree that he is probably passing on info he received, but let me put it this way, I think that the big banks wish for rumors of bank runs (because of the bailout bill, i.e., follow the money) with the same fervor that teenage males wish that a nude pinup girl would come to life in their rooms.

Huh?..What?

What would you do for $700 billion?

Forget the money... tell me more about what's coming to life.

8^)

Westexas now that I think about it you look really cute you can leave the $700 billion on the nightstand.

Westexas now that I think about it you look really cute you can leave the $700 billion on the nightstand.

Yeah, too bad it wouldn't even fit in the room, much less the hotel...

http://www.crunchweb.net/87billion/

I guess a better way to express it would be as follows: What would people not do in order to get their hands on $700 billion? One tenth of one percent of the booty is $700 million.

I've posted several items and links that illustrate how we got into this mess, while trying to find a short version of the whole story. Unfortunately, no one has yet wrote an abridged version. But there is a full version available at the Deepcapture website organized by Overstock.com CEO Dr. Partick Byrne. Just click either The Story or The Explanation links at page top to start your journey; both provide an answer to westexas's question. IMO, they will kill to get it, and their actions have certainly contributed to deaths via collateral damage via the economic terrorism they have wrought.

Thanks for pointing me to the Deepcapture website. The piece on nut job, Jim Cramer, at CNBC was the first one I read. It will take days to get through the rest of them and, from what I glanced at, it will be time well spent.

Thanks for your feedback. I was beginning to wonder if all my pointing was just a futile exercise.

Yahoo published an article summarizing the Senate bailout bill that is due for a House vote tomorrow:

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/105887/The-Bailout:-An-Owner's-Manual

Sad it does not fix the incompetence on Wall Street that led to such a calamity. Sort of like increasing a school system's budget and not getting significant increases in student test scores.

I made it into a lickable clink

The Bailout: An Owner's Manual

Thanks for the link to http://www.deepcapture.com/ this is fascinating reading. I Googled DTCC and NSCC and then read up on Continuous Net Settlement (CNS).

Naked short selling now makes much more sense to me with regard to T+3 and another 5 days before the red light goes on at the SEC, if 'failed to deliver' exceeds threshold.

The only flaw I see with the whole 'naked short selling' conspiracy, is that the hedge funds, as far as I know, usually trade through Prime Brokers at the Investment Banks - surely, over a six month period, the Investment Banks would have noticed that they were all being massively shorted?

Also, why does the SEC need to ask the hedge funds to report all their short selling trades, when all the information should be available from the NSCC?

Hi HoustonB,

I think your questions are answered at the site, once your explore its entirety. If not, the site's format is a blog, so at the bottom of each item on the main page is a link for comments or questions. When you get to the end of the main story, you'll see that Bear Sterns was brought down very fast because the hedge funds simultaniously withdrew their funds and naked shorted it to death.

I'm worried by this "disinformation campaign," if that's what it is. If you look around the web you'll see that there's an increase in (?)floggers(?) who's only purpose seems to be to stir up emotions without any logical discussion. Above some critical level those emotions are going to be taken out in some physical form. Just going down to the local supermarket I now constantly overhear heated talk that can be deemed 'subversive.'

Worse yet, what if this "bailout"/"rescue package" gets okayed and the economy still keeps going down? Now you'll be dealing with hundreds of millions of angry (and clueless) people potentially running amok. Modern crowd control technology probably works well in defined spaces, but what if you get an 'Iraqi-insurgency' type attacks on infrastructure just to let off steam?

I think this is DEFINITELY THE WRONG TIME TO START WITH IMPROV DRAMA.

The guy has built credibility through making seemingly unrealistic predictions that have actually come to fruition. That is the polar opposite of disinformation.

We seem to have a failure to communicate here. What if he is accurately reporting information that Bank of America wanted released into the blogosphere? We are 24 hours away from a vote that will hand over hundreds of billions of dollars to favored banks.

Mish:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/10/major-insurance-compa...
Major Insurance Company On Verge Of Bankruptcy: Senator Reid

The market is going to go where the market is going to go, but if Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was looking to induce short term volatility for the sake of political gain, he just may have done so.

Mr. Willie doesn't seem like the type to be suckered.

Something like the "corralito" in Argentina is probably just part of the situational development. Not so much a question of "if" but "when". Also remains to be seen what form it would take as these things rhyme but almost never follow the precedent exactly.

I understand your theory but at this point I would consider it unlikely-these zombies might be faking imminent collapse but it is hard to tell as so many of them aren't even trying to run a profitable, sustainable business enterprise. There was no need for AIG to be in trouble-Lehman would be fine if they were still a partnership. IMO these companies aren't faking collapse-they are being gutted and an large % of the first 700 billion won't even be allocated toward financial stability, it will be literally stolen from the shareholders (after having first been stolen from the taxpayers).

I wasn't referring to any one individual specifically. It's just that I notice that a lot of people lately are getting hot-headed and irritated now that their livelihood is being messed with. If it were a face-to-face situation this would be a good time to just excuse oneself, walk-away, and let the other guy cool off. Instead, some choose to stoke the fire.

The most recent item at the top of tomdispatch by Steve Fraser puts the current crisis in historical perspective and Tom Englehardt's intoduction to it does also.

As for quelling mobilized street dissent to the $700 Billion theft, this Amy Goodman item informs us of the deployment of a US Army combat team in violation of Posse Commitatus.

In many respects, Big Government has become the enemy of the people because it is controlled by Big Money, which is to say Big Money is Public Enemy #1.

When it comes to the act of Treason, that has been done, by your President and members of Congress, I seriously doubt if "stoke the fire" is a bad thing, or is too harsh a statement. The fires will burn, and your taxes will feed the flames of revolution.

All they have to do is block credit cards and it would be a bank holiday for most people, and it would block the bleeding of funds that to a large degree might never be paid back.

If they only allowed them to be used by people with very high credit scores, it would have the beneficial effect of preventing many that can pay their debts from walking away.

If it's true...I suspect it's just the typical bureaucratic response to a possible crisis. Doesn't mean they think it's a done deal, or even likely. It could just be the equivalent of telling people to stock up on duct tape and plastic in case of chemical attack, or to put canned tuna and peanut butter under the bed in case of bird flu.

Leanan: I will take your Jim Willie and match it with a Peter Schiff (on Glenn Beck Sept 29) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMrQMUGxTS4

I would be surprised if the government wasn't preparing to do something in the event of a widespread run on the banks. Sheesh, the banks don't trust each other. Why should the public trust the banks? IMO, once the public wakes up to the situation, a run on the banks is quite likely.

There is precedent for this of course in the Emergency Banking Act of 1933.

The act allowed a plan that would close down insolvent banks and reorganize and reopen those banks strong enough to survive.

Roosevelt also got Congress to declare a 4-day "bank holiday" to let the government take a look at the books and calm public jitters.

Of course, I wouldn't expect Bush to bother with the formality of going to Congress. On the other hand, Roosevelt wasn't above political shenanigans:

Despite the importance of the bill, it was passed in immense haste by Congress. Few, if any, Congressmen had the chance to read the bill; most were only able to hear the clerk read it. Quite a few Congressmen vocally protested the haste in which the bill was considered, but nevertheless it was passed sight unseen

The Shock Doctrine 70 years before Naomi Klein's book.

The bill also gave the Secretary of the Treasury the authority to confiscate the gold of private citizens, in exchange for an equivalent amount of paper currency which was subject to later devaluation with relation to gold.

Krystallnacht

That was the end of any doubts of what was going on, not the start of the process.

I think westexas hit the nail on the head there:

"It could be part of a disinformation campaign, by the banks, to continue to scare Americans into supporting the bailout bill. Who stands to gain the most if the bill passes?"

Leanan-- do you think it wise to post this sort of thing? Is it not irresponsible?

Look, Leanan, your carelessness is already having an effect. The Dow is down 231.14, -2.13%, after early trading.

Keep it up and the system will crash tomorrow.

Ohhh... feel the power!!!

Those damned bloggers on the Internet. Gore's fault, too, for having invented the www in the first place. :-)

Gore's fault, too, for having invented the www in the first place. :-)

What are you talking about? It's a series of tubes...

But hey... The guy who first called it this (a.k.a the senator of Alaska, Sen. Stevens) could his corruption charge dismissed today... Apparently, the tubes/wires/plywood given by Veco Corporation (i.e. a large oil contactor in Alaska) used to build his house might not be 'gifts' after all.

You mean the internets? :)

Srivathsa

My brother has a definition of the difference between "being prepared" versus "hoarding".

If you stock up when there is plenty that nobody else wants, that's "being prepared".

If you stock up when everybody needs the stuff too, that's "hoarding".

I'm stocking up on gold, silver, and cash. Only half done with my plan....I hope I'm not too late. At least I'll be WAY ahead of 90% of the populace if things shut down tomorrow.

I hear gold is very tasty, if you put cream and sugar on it.

Goes good with alchohol too...

As regards money, how can it be hoarding if it is yours, How do you hoard what you already own? Yes a run on the banks would be terrible, awful, I can not even guess what it might be like. But the blame does not lie with people doing what ever they wish with the money they rightfully earned, the blame or "moral hazard" as they now say is that fractional reserve banking is predicated on a lie.

What an astonishingly idiotic way to safeguard money. But yes, yes the music's still playing, getting louder all the time I suspect.

Every BofA branch has at least one multifunction printer/copier capable of producing decent quality signs. It would be stupid to pre-print them and hope to keep it a secret. The banks certainly do not want people hoarding cash right now. So this makes no sense no matter how you look at it.

Disclaimer: For the first time in my life I am keeping a supply of cash, but that is not due to this rumor.

Cash?
Package labeled Pork Chops in the freezer?
Bag labeled DDT in the tool shed?
Buried under the rose bush?
Money belt?

You left out some information and your address

:)

I have my checking account at Bank of America and something happened to me this week that has never happened in all the many years I've banked there.

I have overriding royalty interests on several leases from the days when I was active in the oil and gas business. The lease operators pay the royalties by check each month. These checks are drawn on major independent oil and gas operators. In the past, when I deposited a check, the funds were made available the following day. However, my bookeeper called Monday (sept 29) and told me she had just deposited a check and BofA informed her that the first $4900 wouldn't be available until Wednesday (oct 1) and the remainder until the following Monday (oct 6). She called me all alarmed, wanting to know if I had overdrawn my account or something. This happened again on a check I deposited Tuesday.

I don't know what this all means, but when long-standing procedures are changed it alarms people. I and my account were both sufficiently alarmed to go withdraw some money and stash it under the mattress.

the first $4900 wouldn't be available until Wednesday (oct 1) and the remainder until the following Monday (oct 6).

DownSouth

I would pay attention to this point made by Jim Willie in the article mentioned above...

The October Hat Trick Letter contains some multi-sided evidence of USFed open license to use subsidiary accounts toward the aid of liquidity strains.

Your accounts may be used for the bank's own liquidity purposes.
I have read the same in other articles.

Ya gonna believe Willie or your lying eyes?

I'm really in a quandry as to what is going on.

I have absolutely no knowledge of how this all works. For instance, could Bank of America decide unilaterally to hold funds for a week without the nod of banking regulators? It seems the timing of when these funds are made available would be something mandated by the feds. Could this signal a regulatory change?

Just imagine if they are doing this to people or businesses who move a lot of money. I would think that, for many businesses, being deprived of access to their funds for a entire week could cause extreme difficulties.

Where is Gail the Actuary when you need her? I'll bet she would know, and if she didn't, she'd know where to find out.

Bank of America states this in their policy:

When are funds available after deposit?

Usually on the first business day after the day we receive your deposit. However, depending on the type and amount of your deposit, we may delay the availability of your funds for up to 11 business days. If we delay the availability of funds, we send you a notice and tell you when the funds will be available. A delay may occur under the following circumstances:
You deposit checks totaling more than $5,000 in one day.
You re-deposit a check that has been returned unpaid.
We believe a check you deposit won't be paid.
You've overdrawn your account repeatedly in the last six months.
There is an emergency such as an equipment failure.

For more information on the circumstances under which a delay may occur, refer to the Deposit Agreement and Disclosures.

My credit union has a similar policy, not that I've ever had a check that big :)

Thanks for the heads up, Ben.

Maybe the policy has been in place all along. However, in the past BofA has always made the funds available the day after I deposited the checks. Only one time when I had a personal check drawn on a small, out-of-state bank did they ever put a hold on funds.

Normally this probably wouldn't have even raised an eyebrow. However, with all that is going on with bank failures and everything, it got my attention.

I meant to put that on there, that they've probably had a policy (or similar), but are now enforcing it. They seem to give themselves an out with the "if we think the check may be bad" bit, that leaves it pretty much up to the teller, doesn't it?

"Hmmm. U.S. Treasury. Better put a hold on this one, Bob..."

For the past month we have been fighting with our mortgage company who wants to create an impound account for our taxes. This is despite the fact that we have always paid our taxes, have never been late, called the county clerk to confirm that we are in good standing and have been told repeatedly by "supervisors" at the mortgage company that they would stop calling us demanding that we fund a tax impound account.

My wife was told again this morning by a supervisor that they would stop calling us. We'll see.

I think these companies are desperate for any scrap of cash they can get their hands on and are doing whatever they can to a) get more cash and b) keep the cash in their accounts as long as possible.

DownSouth,

I really don't have any inside information on this.

My guess is that the bank has greatly expanded its list of companies on the list corresponding to

We believe a check won't be paid.

I would expect that the list originally named specific companies to which there procedures applied. Now with credit drying up, the procedures are being applied to everyone, or a very long list of companies, perhaps excluding a favored few. People don't have access to their funds as quickly, and business don't either. This could very well cause problems for those who try to time things tightly.

I sold a property on Lake Norman in the Peninsula club
recently.

http://www.thepeninsulaclub.com/Club/Scripts/Home/home.asp

The check from closing was deposited in a BOA account in Huntersville NC, The branch refused too allow funds to post for 30 days. Here in Cleveland Ohio, there is a office for BOfA but not a branch (Cleveland is 1 of 12) of the federal reserve bank locations....thats why BOfA has an office but no branch here. I called the world headqaurters of BOfA in Charlotte and informed them "You can't count on your books as cash on hand, that which you deny my access too" And informed them of the nature of the check and its nearly instantanious verification made easy with the routing number at the bottom of the check. The money suddenly became available and posted on line within 1/2 hour!

Bank of America has been changing a lot of their rules recently. Everything from fingerprinting people to charging fees for cashing checks.

Makes one wonder, if there are really only going to be a very few major banks left soon - the surveillance will be so much easier. I know the savings bank where I do business screens all my transactions against multiple "terrorist" databases.

My sister had something similar happen to her.

It's possible this is a hoax but like all really good hoaxes, it has a basis in reality:

The following quotation comes from an article detailing some of the discussions just before the bailout was proposed.

From the New York Times:

Since the Bear Stearns bailout, Treasury and Fed officials had discussed what a broad government intervention might look like. Although there were suggestions for a “bank holiday” — a temporary, nationwide closing of banks, which had not been done since 1933, to stem panicky withdrawals — Mr. Bernanke and Mr. Paulson dismissed the idea, fearing it would do far more harm than good by scaring people needlessly. They had both assembled teams to map out drastic rescue plans — the “break the glass” plans.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/02/business/02crisis.html?pagewanted=4&hp

The NYT also quotes the Fed Chairman telling lawmakers (regarding the proposed bailout):

“If we don’t do this,” Mr. Bernanke said, according to several participants, “we may not have an economy on Monday.”

I think what I said here explains a lot of whats going on. Its not a traditional bank run but people withdrawing large amounts of money to cover debts. I'm also copying the text.
It also explains the stock market action. Basically a whole lot of people are now paying debt out of their savings.

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/4584#comment-416479

I suspect your wrong about the cause of this run on the banks and also why you can't see it.

The run on the banks is caused by people draining their savings to pay mortgage debt and CC debt.
I suspect a lot of it is from small time real estate speculators still holding on to properties and draining cash every month.

Also I suspect people are furiously cashing out their 401k's for the same reason. This drain of money from 401 k's will force private pension plans to sell assets to meet liquidation demands.
This is on top of the natural roll over as the baby boomers retires. Needless to say a lot of liquidity is being drained from the stock market right now because just about everyone is either borrowing or cashing out their 401k plans at the moment.

Its going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

If you withdraw cash from your savings account to pay off the mortgage or credit card, then the cash is going back to the bank. Ditto for buying beans down at the feed store. The store is taking your money and paying off it's bank loan, or just depositing the money in the bank as savings. Again, it is going back to the bank.

Actually, since nearly all money is debt, when you pay off a loan, you are destroying money. If this seems odd, consider how the money was created in the first place.

When a bank makes a loan, it creates the money out of thin air by simply entering the balance on a ledger. One side is an "asset" to the bank. The other side is credited to the borrower. BAnks were granted the authority to create US dollars this way by the Federal Reserve Act. Prior to that act, the bank had to issue a bank note, backed only by the bank. Bank notes were problemmatic, because they were not "legal tender" and would go poof if the bank went under.

As the borrower pays back the loan, the amount on the ledger gets smaller. Eventually, it is 0, and all the money that was created as part of the loan is gone, destroyed....plus interest of course.

The problem is that the interest the borrower paid back was the principal on someone else's loan. There is now not enough money in existence for that other borrower to pay back his loan. The money to pay the interest on existing loans comes out of new loans. This is why deflation and/or a credit squeeze is so deadly to a fractional-reserve fiat currency: constant credit expansion is necessary to keep the money supply from being sucked into a black hole of payoffs and defaults.

The problem is that the success of any debt based monetary system requiring payment of interest requires infinite economic growth - it is a 'feature' of the design.

It is a 'feature' of growth that ever more energy is required.

Oil consumption and the financial system are in a symbiotic relationship - you either have growth of both or decline of both!

Most people don't understand this simple relationship, but I am sure peak 'net exports' of oil will have a huge impact on the viability of long term borrowing in oil importing nations.

Excuse me...I need to run to my ATM right quick!!!

I don't think a temporary bank shutdown on a national basis would involve ATMs. That's the reason banks might need some lead time to prepare.

If they close the banks but keep the ATMs going (perhaps with lower daily withdrawal limits), it's likely in my view that panic would subside in a few days. You would have access to cash, just not your entire balance at once.

In meantime, of course, broad measures (mostly involving helicopters) would be announced and explained to the public.

[In fact, ATM's might turn out to be amazingly useful in times like these to preserve the banking system. Cash is available, just not in massive quantities. Cash rationing.]

It would be simpler to take over the ATM systems and the credit card systems. Most countries in the world have (or had) a postal savings system. The post office took deposits everywhere and put some competition in for the local bank. It didn't make loans, though. Just took deposits so the government was immune from bank pressure on loans to finance the government.

If that's so, then why don't they just tell us, instead of this pack of lies they're feeding us?

I think I know the reason. A majority of Americans might just decide it's time to wean ourselves off foreign debt, cold turkey. They see this as the only way to rid the country of its financial cancer. Think in terms of chemo-therapy. The patient suffers horribly, but the cancer is killed. The patient lives. The alternative is to not take the treatment, the cancer lives and the patient dies.

The current bailout proposal, if "successful," will only restore the system as it was. I'd say the chances of this "success" are about as good as a snowball's chance in hell, but nevertheless, I don't think a majority of Americans want to return to the way it was. Most people realize if we go back to the way it was, the $700 billion will only buy us a temporary respite until the banking and finance industry causes another round of wreckage.

It's the desperate final gamble of addicted gamblers. Unfortunately, the kids have nothing to say about their sodden father's behavior.

I guess you could say the whole original idea of The United States of America was a gamble-- most everyone who knew anything in 1775 knew that common people couldn't run a country, let alone the world.

I keep entertaining the hope that Alexander Hamilton and his crew were wrong, and that the "common sense" of the "common" man can prevail, and resurgent aristocracy is not our inevitable future. Somehow, that seems a faint hope at this point -- not when Goldman Sachs runs the U.S. Treasury.

Can the "commonsense" Sarah Palin bail us out?

The "commonsense" Sarah Palin, by herself, cannot bail us out. And I don't relish the thought of her as President. It would be an unmitigated disaster. That said, when we look at the entire political spectrum, the Sarah Palins of the world do play an important role.

I do not lament the fact that in the United States we have people like Sarah Palin. What I do lament is that we have no counterbalance, no radical populist left. Where are our modern-day Huey Longs? They've been banished from the political landscape by constant pounding from a national news media that demonizes left-wing populism, but sees nothing wrong with the right-wing populist rhetoric of Sarah Palin.

The problem with this story is that it never explains who would buy these dollar based assets if China and Japan decided to sell (in a panic or otherwise). Are we going to buy them? What will we pay for them with? More dollars? China and Japan are the only large countries motivated to own and large enough to such an enormous number of dollars, therefore, they are stuck. When a marginally solvent debtor owes you a small amount of money which he can't repay, the debtor has a big problem. When a marginally solvent debtor owes you a very large amount of money he can't repay, YOU have a big problem.

Yes, you have a big problem, but you are still in business. As an example, you built all these TVs and sold them to a major customer (19%) of all your sales. Yes, it is a bummer if his IOUs are worthless, but you are still in business making and selling TVs to the other 81%. Your customer, OTOH won't be able to buy TVs, oil or anything else on credit-he will have to trade good (probably food or coal) for good.

I don't disagree with you except as to the percentages. I am guessing much more than 19% is paid for with American monopoly money. My point is Japan and China cannot easily threaten to dump the dollar even though at some point they will have to do so. (To paraphrase Ben Stein's father "That which cannot go on forever, won't").

Since we are on a peak oil site, I have to say that while I find our payment of monopoly money to corrupt, non-democratic regimes in the oil producing states (except for Canada for course) for a precious, finite resource at the same time that we are the world's most wasteful oil gluttons to be morally reprehensible, from an economic standpoint we are getting a fabulous deal even if the China gets the low-paying electronic and textile jobs.

With regard to trading real goods in exchange for real goods, that is probably a good idea for sustainability of the human race as a whole. Unfortunately for China and Japan, they don't export oil and we can rebuild our ipod, GAP clothing and Pinto factories fairly quickly if they decide not to take our monopoly money in the future.

I'm not sure that foreign creditors need to sell to spark a crisis. I think they would merely need to quit buying. The US is utterly dependent on the $1 billion per day, or whatever it's up to now, that our gracious creditors extend to us. I suspect that the situation would spiral quickly out of control if they simply stopped buying.

The US gov't. deficit for 2008-09 is projected to be close to 600 Billion, and if revenues decrease in the manner I think they will, that figure could come close to a Trillion. Neither figure includes the costs of any "bailout." Then there is coporate and consumer debt to add to the gov't. number. All told, $1 Trillion is a good guess for what the US will need to be loaned over the course of 2008-09. One Trillion divided by 365 gives $2,739,726,027.40/day in borrowing. Include the costs of the "bailout" plus the 100 Billion in bribes to get it passed to the one Trillion for 1.8 Trillion would require $4,931,506,849.30/day. Then we need to finance the payments for the debt already accumulated, so figure about $5 Billion per day in overseas loans, more than double the daily amount of the 2007-08 fiscal year.

Such an amount is insane. But Depravity Central will likely vote for just that: Insanity.

Is America's biggest export really T-bills?

If America stops buying, many countries cannot sell. They really want us to keep buying, as they get some value from the dollars received.

It would seem that dollars would inflate worldwide if not for other countries pulling them out of circulation and buying T-bills with them, which we're happy to sell to keep our people happy and purchasing.

It does not seem sustainable to keep asking countries to ship us stuff in exchange for T-bills they can't really spend. To raise their own standards, and to prevent shipping everything of value to us for virtual money paid in the future, they need to start buying American products. And that in turn would be healthier for us, but we don't seem to sell products anymore.

Where am I misunderstanding? Have we really built a worldwide game where only we win right now? And if we lose EVERYBODY loses?

Do we actually have a worldwide "T-bill bubble" rather than a dollar bubble? What will pop it, if so?

If America stops buying, many countries cannot sell. They really want us to keep buying, as they get some value from the dollars received.

Ring around the rosie
A pocket full of poseys
Ashes, Ashes
We all fall down

Well, the rhyme refers to The Plague, but it might as well refer to the situation you describe.

If I were manufacturing goods in China or elsewhere, I would demand payment in my national currency. The same goes if I'm an oil exporter. Yes, this would create inflation in my currency as its demand would grow. But at the same time the dollar gets cheaper, which allows me to buy US agricultural goods, weapons, land, businesses, or whatever in greater quantities than before. And since the US now needs my national currency to buy my products, the USA would need to accumulate a reserve of my national currency. At some future point, a tenuous balance would be arrived at and the exchange rate would become somewhat stabilized. (The Bretton Woods agreement established the International Monetary Fund to perform this essential international service, which was discontinued by Nixon in favor of Kissenger's Dollar Hegemony plan.) IMO, the dollar has a long way to fall to reach whatever value it still has.

As implied, the deviation from the Bretton Woods system is at the root of the potential destabilization of global trade. Hopefully, it won't take a global depression and world war to return to such a system, perhaps using some newly created non-national currency--The Global--as the primary reserve currency.

For better or worse, we must have an easily portable medium of exchange to facilitate commerce. The denarius worked until it was debased, as did sterling then the dollar. The gold bugs will demand a return to their standard, which I see as implausible. Now that the dollar crisis is fully formed, we have many countries calling for reform of the international monetary system. Now that the US lacks leverage over those countries, perhaps a sane agreemnet reinstituting something like the Bretton Woods System will be arrived at.

unless the reforms correct the problems that were pointed out in the 'money as debt' movie it's not going to stop the situation.

I assume your pronoun "it's" refers to a new form of Bretton Woods agreement. I wasn't implying it would "stop the situation," which I assume you mean the US financial troubles. Nor was I addressing the "problems pointed out in the 'money as debt' movie."

So, since you are rather vague, it's hard for me to respond.

What I hope we avoid is a repeat of the events of 1929-1933 when very high protectionist tariffs were erected globally that slowed the flow of international commerce, and thus monetary flows, to a trickle, which happened to be a major contributor to the length and depth of the Great Depression. With holders of US debt rightly concerned about its value and redeemability, and the massive amounts of additional borrowing the so-called bailout bill will impose as I note further up the thread--up to $5 billion per day--the world community must make arrangements to abandon the dollar as the main trading and reserve currency before the whole system siezes-up, which would really be a calamity. The merrygoround consumeristic ponzi scam has created gross imbalances in the global economy that will correct one way or another--managed or unmanaged. Economic "pain" is going to be inflicted, but I believe its scope can be limited to the USA and UK, the two economies most out-of-balance.

Most important, the US government MUST return to living within its means. This entails massive cuts in defense, withdrawl from the seven conflicts its now involved in--Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel, Iran, Colombia, Bolivia, and Venezuela--and cancellation of the Bush tax cuts--just for starters. This would curtail some of the government caused "crowding out" in the credit markets (which I discussed two years ago on this forum), and allow for some recapitalization of the banking system. Such actions will be anathema to BushCo, but that doesn't mean they are the wrong things to do--in fact, I would argue that's why they are exactly the right things to do.

The age of the US Empire is now over. And its excesses will usher in an age of austerity. Let us hope it's no worse than that.