21 comments on The Oil Drum - At ASPO-USA Sacramento
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GAIA Host Collective
From the comments on the Chuck Watson presentation:
"He mentioned that there is strong evidence that climate is changing. He believes we are already past the tipping point, and the likely outcome is global cooling."
Is he really predicting global cooling? Could you perhaps elaborate on this?
Peter.
I would like to hear more about this also.
I have heard about this more than once before. One of the other TOD contributors has researched the issue, and is leaning toward the global cooling conclusion. Also, one talk I heard by a meteorologist early this year made a fairly good case (from a layman's perspective) that the melting of the area around the North pole would change snow patterns and kick us into the next ice age. There were various interactions which I don't remember, but one of them was that having more reflective snow (as the winds moved over the open North Pole area and made "lake effect snow") would reflect heat back, and kick us into the next ice age.
You may have read the post that gave Charlie Hall's comments on the huge International Geology Congress in Norway. He reported that about two-thirds of those present disagreed with the IPCC report.
The cooling outcome seems unlikely to me, on first principles. It's usually based on the idea that the ocean thermohaline circulation fails in the N. Atlantic, due to freshening water from ice melt. Heat flux from the tropics would be diminished, causing at least a local cooling in N. America and N. Europe.
This argument doesn't take into account the global heat budget; more greenhouse gases mean more absorption and re-emission of outgoing longwave radiation (infra-red) from earth's surface. To reach equilibrium with the sun's incoming shortwave radiation, the atmosphere must warm. Local and short-term fluctuations (even local coolings) certainly will occur on the way to the equilibrium state, and reorganzation of the thermohaline circulation will probably result, but the outcome will not be another ice age.
Using paleoclimate as a guide to what might happen at the CO2 concentrations we're heading toward, we can expect widespread ocean stratification and anoxia, large-scale deglaciation, desertification, and mass extinctions.
> "I could not at first figure out why there was so much hostility between the two climate groups."
There is a large and very well funded global warming denial industry, featuring in many cases the same individuals and organizations that were involved with tobacco.
Recommendation - watch the Naomi Oreskes video on The American Denial of Global Warming, or google for her and "how do we know we're not wrong?", or read her paper on consensus here -
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1686
or read the list of scientific bodies (virtually *every* major one) making statements on climate, at http://logicalscience.com/consensus/consensus.htm
.
For the sake of our kids, we can't afford to be hoodwinked this time.
"The climate system is an angry beast, and we are poking it with sticks."