The price just balances actual supply and actual demand - if you know what they will be at every price you can predict the price of the balance point. Clearly an impossible task as the pundits prove every hour of every day! Don't waste your time, life is too short.

All you can say is if the price is falling relative to income there is potentially adequate extra supply (albeit maybe at a higher price) peak oil is a nonsense and we are all saved, and if the price is rising and becoming less affordable, supply is inadequate to meet current growth aspirations.

Actually, since people the whole world over have aspirations for economic growth and Governments are desperate to make it happen, but oil supply is basically flat, expect the price of oil to rise as a proportion of income.

Whether you think your income/wealth will fall in real terms (deflation) or the prices will rise (inflation) I leave up to your seat of pants to guess - but at the moment for most people (although they don't yet fully realise it) deflation has, by far, the upper hand. You only feel the full effect of inflation or deflation when you buy or sell something!

In an era of deflation your accumulated wealth declines, in an era of inflation your real income declines - so in the long run you probably lose out either way unless you have some kind of hedging strategy.