121 comments on Resurgence of Risk - A Primer on the Develop(ed) Credit Crunch
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121 comments on Resurgence of Risk - A Primer on the Develop(ed) Credit Crunch
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CHK's annoucement perhaps sheds some light on a recent acqusition. In early Sept they paid International paper $264 million for 13,000 net mineral acres in the Haynesville Shale trend in N La. Difficult to tell for sure but that appeared to be a good deal for CHK. They may have the clock ticking against their leased acreage but the mineral right don't expire.
CHK, our largest Nat gas producer, is being raided, just like LEH, AIG etc. by financial players.
people are shorting the stock and buying the credit default swaps
a large % of their hedges are at Morgan Stanley - if MS goes under, so does CHK. NO WAY does govt allow that to happen, but what to do?
I think XOM spends some of their war chest of 40 bil to buy some of these failing nat gas companies
CHK is now trading at $1.70 per mcf, a level last seen in the late 1990s.
heres another example of the disconnect between financial and natural capital. hedge funds trying to put CHK out of business to make money, yet when they get home they'll have no heat or diapers..
"but what to do?" Hey Nate, I thought you were in favour of being able to short? How about preventing all shorts?
It all depends on the context.
We need regulation and a major paradigm shift in the direction of our institutions. But we need SMART regulation. Stupid regulation is worse than no regulation at all. And we cannot change the rules overnight lest there are unintended consequences. Changing the short-selling rules caused 10s of billions to leave our markets via closed/closing hedge funds. I know this for a fact. Its possibly much more. It adds to volatility and sends overvalued stocks higher and cheap stocks cheaper which then begets more panic and confusion.
We need less leverage. Short selling is a minor but integral part of the markets ebb and flow. If they are to remove it thats fine by me - but announce that shorts will no longer be allowed starting 1/1/2010 or something, so people have time to adjust.
I cringe to hear what will be announced tonight or over the weekend. I'm quite certain there is an abstract rabbit in the hat that I haven't conceived of that is being given the gift of rabbit life as we speak.
Nate, when I hear the words paradigm change then I usually try to listen hard and do the opposite:-) In this case I would completely agree with you, we need less leverage and financial institutions to be far more responsible.
The problem is being SMART and avoiding the unintended consequences especially when we can't sit back and wait months. A small example, how about preventing foreclosures and not throwing people out on the street? sounds good like apple pie but could it lead to more people giving up on their mortgages? if i had a mortgage and was struggling then i would be tempted as i understand that in the US you can walk away from a mortgage.
As to rabbits, yes no end to what can be dreamt up.
I don't know if people saw this yesterday. (Cook county is more or less equal to the city of Chicago.)
Chicago's Cook County won't evict in foreclosures
Lehman collapse puts hedge fund in dire straits: Short-seller Copper River should be in its glory in a market like this. Instead, it's fighting for its life.
I agree Nate. The folks I know with cash reserves are starting to morph into sharks. All the specualtion about CHK is just like bood in the water. A number of the smart players have been waiting for cracks in the leverage suit of armor. That day may quickly be upon us.