Exactly this is why I don't care much for the popularity of the concept of black swan events.
They are intrinsic if you will in complex systems if we really understood complex systems we could prove statements such as in a sufficiently complex system that contains white swans black swans would also exist. These sorts of concepts are actually related to prime numbers for example the unanswered questions that deal with primes actually deal with complexity. Are numbers complex enough that the distribution of primes cannot be written in a closed form ?

I for example came up with a conjecture that between every prime and its square exists another prime. This density assertion seems true.

Turns out its closely related to Goldbach's conjecture.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goldbach_conjecture

In fact if my statement is true then you can prove Golbach's conjecture and if Golbach is true you can prove my statement.

Damn :)

And worse the two statements are not equal but similar thus immensely tantalizing.
If I ever get thrown in prison I'll work on it again. The key is the density of primes needed for Globach's conjecture to be true is less than the requirement for mine thus primes are denser than than the prime and its square.

My point is that narly problems exist and proof of these are actually like what we consider a black swan they are a singular event you solve them once just like the proof of fermats last theorem.

This is complexity in all its beauty and power and we have not even left the integers to explore a more complex space. The complexity explodes almost immediately. Simply creating a pile of sand and predicting when it will suffer a big slide is impossible.

This is life its our universe its the way things really work.
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Give this what do you do ?

You build in buffers and redundancy you do not push or stress these sorts of systems in fact you better treat them with gentleness and respect and go with the flow if you will. They can and will bite back.

Renewable concepts and all sorts of living in harmony concepts are really just recognition that we are really dealing with complex systems that we better not stress at our peril.

At some point we failed to communicate these truths to the average person certainly after we discovered the atomic bomb we lost our way. It could well have even been earlier with the discovery of the steam engine. We never figured out how to translate this complexity into a form that the common person could understand instead we reinvented the shaman and his secrets. Eventually we have create a world full of secrets a complex financial system full of acronyms understood by none and reliance on a finite energy source a reckless life style etc.

All of this in my opinion comes from our arrogance and inability to explain the unknown most people don't even realize we don't even fu%@!+n understand integers.