"Big oil-producing countries are showing signs of distress as the global credit crunch and falling crude prices begin to squeeze government budgets and delay projects."

So far no major projects in the Athabasca Tar Sands have been cancelled outright, but several are postponed or altered due to high labour costs and difficult supply (try buying steel pipe these days). Existing conventional oil wells in Alberta will continue to pump because the capital cost is paid for, but there might be a slowdown in new wells if rig costs don't come down fast and far. It's the rig costs that are killing natural gas producers.

Alberta's conventional oil peaked in the middle 1970s, then plateaued for a while as the superstraws were applied, before falling off a cliff in the 1990s. Today we have three times as many producing wells generating one-third of the peak amount. (Numerical data from www.capp.ca)

If the current "drop" in oil stays or gets worse, we might see more problems. I put the word "drop" in quotation marks because, of course, it is still at historical highs compared to the last few years. A sustained cold winter in eastern USA will boost oil and gas prices temporarily.

One word: Kondratieff.