"Big oil-producing countries are showing signs of distress as the global credit crunch and falling crude prices begin to squeeze government budgets and delay projects."

So far no major projects in the Athabasca Tar Sands have been cancelled outright, but several are postponed or altered due to high labour costs and difficult supply (try buying steel pipe these days). Existing conventional oil wells in Alberta will continue to pump because the capital cost is paid for, but there might be a slowdown in new wells if rig costs don't come down fast and far. It's the rig costs that are killing natural gas producers.

Alberta's conventional oil peaked in the middle 1970s, then plateaued for a while as the superstraws were applied, before falling off a cliff in the 1990s. Today we have three times as many producing wells generating one-third of the peak amount. (Numerical data from www.capp.ca)

If the current "drop" in oil stays or gets worse, we might see more problems. I put the word "drop" in quotation marks because, of course, it is still at historical highs compared to the last few years. A sustained cold winter in eastern USA will boost oil and gas prices temporarily.

One word: Kondratieff.

Kondratieff. Executed Sep 17, 1938

Initially imprisoned in 1930, Kondratiev served eight years before he was re-sentenced and executed; he ached for the separation with his family. Kondratiev’s daughter, Elena — Alyona or Alyonushka in the Russian diminutive — preserved his correspondence to her, the only remnants of her father in her life.

The last letter — as it turned out; plainly the writer had no inkling of it — was dated August 31, 1938.

My sweet darling Alyonushka.

Probably your holidays are over now and you are back at school. How did you spend the summer? Did you get stronger, put on weight, get tanned? I very much want to know. And I would like very, very much to see you and kiss you many, many times. I still do not feel well, I am still ill. My sweet Alyonushka, I want you not to get sick this winter. I also want you to study hard, as you did before. Read good books. Be a clever and a good little girl. Listen to your mother and never disappoint her. I would also be happy if you managed not to forget about me, your papa, altogether. Well, be healthy! Be happy! I kiss you without end.

Your papa.

http://www.executedtoday.com/tag/kondratieff-wave/

He was executed at the height of Stalin's Great Purge and "rehabilitated" fifty years later. [wikipedia]