I thought it'd be useful to repost a previous comment.

For a clearer understanding, it helps to decouple the monetary system and the banking system and look at the options for each. Below are the possible combinations in the form:
Monetary system; Banking system; stability; historicity

1. Gold standard; 100% reserve banking (or usually no banking); stable; historical (first)

2. Gold standard; fractional reserve banking; unstable (no bullion lender of last resort); historical (1694 in England - around 1930 everywhere)

3. Fiat money; fractional reserve banking; stable (as long as central bank is willing to print currency as needed); historical (since around 1930 everywhere)

4. Fiat money; 100% reserve banking; stable; theoretical (Simons 1934 and Fisher 1935).

Heretofore, I refer to system 1 as pure precious metals-based (actually, silver has a longer and richer monetary history than gold), and to systems 2, 3 and 4 as "soft" (should be "funny money" in gold bugs's jargon).

Of note, the biblical prohibition of interest:

Ex 22:24 - "If you lend money to one of your poor neighbors among my people, you shall not act like an extortioner toward him by demanding interest from him"

Lev 25:37 - "You are to lend him neither money at interest nor food at a profit."

Ez 18:8 -"if he does not lend at interest nor exact usury..."

was issued when the monetary system in effect was pure precious metals-based. And it applies only to that system, so that it is legitimate to earn interest from soft monetary systems. That's because the properties of the currency (the entity performing the functions of money) are fundamentally different between pure pm-based systems (where gold and silver have to be mined), and soft systems (where central banks can easily print bills and even more easily create their electronic equivalent).

Below I try to show that:

1. The existence of a widely available, RISK-FREE interest bearing investment requires a "soft" monetary system.

2. For that investment to also yield a REAL positive interest rate, real economic output must grow at that rate or higher.

To demonstrate the first point, let 's assume we have a pure gold system. How can some person or institution make a risk-free promise to anyone to pay them interest on the gold they initially lent (plus the principal at maturity)? By one of two ways:

a. The borrower has the power to exact ever increasing quantities of gold from subject/victim populations, i.e. to forever expand its share of the total bullion stock. Clearly that cannot last long.

b. If we assume the borrower's share of total bullion stocks to remain constant at most, which is plausible, then we need the total stock of monetary gold to grow exponentially at that rate or higher (which implies that the amount of gold mined each year must grow exponentially at the same rate too). Actually, the cumulative gold production did grow exponentially, only the rate was very low, as you can calculate from the data at page
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_00/mbutler031900.html

Thus, the annual rate of growth of above-ground gold stocks was
0.11 % from 1200 BC to 600 BC and again from 300 BC to 500 AD (see the reason for the biblical prohibition of interest?),
0.05 % during the Middle Ages,
0.59 % during the XIX century, and
1.7 % on average during the XX century (actually it was 1.8 % 1900-1950, 1.6 % 1950-1975 and 1.5 % 1975-2000).

Adding silver to the picture changed the above percentages very little.

(As an aside, this shows that a pure pm-based monetary system would have been deflationary since the industrial revolution, most notably after WWII: during the period 1950-1975 world real GDP increased at a cumulative rate of 4.7%, while world total gold inventories rose at a cumulative rate of 1.6%, so that a pure gold-based monetary system would have caused an annual DEFLATION rate of 3%. In practice, that level of deflationary pressure would have directly prevented the occurrence of that economic growth rate. Which could have been actually good, but that's another story.)

As said, the above figures provide the ceiling for the interest that could be offered by a risk-free investment if a pure gold standard had been in place. BTW, 1.5 % leads to k = 1/67. Clearly, the correlation of higher rates of growth of above-ground gold stocks with higher energy use in the XIX and XX centuries is no coincidence, as modern mining is very energy intensive, which also means that, after Hubbert's Peak for oil, the annual growth rate is bound to get lower and lower.

In a fiat money system, on the other hand, the monetary stock can (and certainly does!) grow exponentially at any rate that suits the keepers of the printing press or its electronic equivalent, so the government can promise beyond any risk to anybody to return them any nominal interest rate below that.

Now comes the second point: how do you insure that the nominal interest earned (plus the returned principal) allows the lender to buy more REAL goods and services than the principal initially allowed them to, in a fashion of a certain annual real rate? By having the amount of available goods and services grow exponentially at a rate that fulfills:

(1 + yGR) = (1 + RIR) (1+MGR) / (1 + NIR)

where
yGR: real Net National Income Growth Rate (approx real GDP Growth Rate)
RIR: Real Interest Rate
MGR: Monetary stock Growth Rate
NIR: Nominal risk-free Interest Rate

Since MGR >= NIR as said above (to make the investment yielding NIR risk-free),
it follows that the real GDP growth rate must be >= the real interest rate.

(BTW, the last condition holds for any monetary system, hard or soft, and it comes from the Fisher Equation of the Quantity Theory of Money, M V = P y, assuming constant V. See below.)

The "good" news, then, is that after Hubbert's Peak, since real GDP Growth rates will become negative for a long time, so will real "risk-free" interest rates, and therefore there will be no financial incentive for clearcutting the forest.

Calculation of the real interest rate:

Again from the Fisher Equation of the Quantity Theory of Money:
M V = P y,
where we assume constant V.

P = M V / y

At t=0, let be:
y0 the real Net National Income (can be substituted by real GDP, since we will deal with its growth rate, which will not differ substantially)
M0 the monetary stock (M1 or M2 depending on country)
P0 the price level = M0 V / y0

Let's call Real Purchasing Power at t=0 what an initial amount A0 can buy:
RPP0 = A0 / P0 = A0 y0 / M0 V

Let that initial monetary amount A0 be invested in a risk-free vehicle that yields a nominal interest rate NIR.

At t=n, we have:
yn = y0 (1+yGR)exp(n)
Mn = M0 (1+MGR)exp(n)
Pn = Mn V / yn
An = A0 (1+NIR)exp(n)

where
yGR: real Net National Income Growth Rate (approx real GDP Growth Rate)
MGR: Monetary stock Growth Rate

How much can An buy at t=n?
RPPn = An / Pn = A0 (1+NIR)exp(n) y0 (1+yGR)exp(n) / [M0 (1+MGR)exp(n) V]
RPPn = RPP0 (1+NIR)exp(n) (1+yGR)exp(n) / (1+MGR)exp(n)

Now, you want RPP to grow at a certain annual Real Interest Rate, RIR, so:
RPPn = RPP0 (1+RIR)exp(n)

From the last two equations:
(1+RIR)exp(n) = (1+NIR)exp(n) (1+yGR)exp(n) / (1+MGR)exp(n)

Taking the nth root:

(1+RIR) = (1+yGR) (1+NIR) / (1+MGR)

As said above, for an investment vehicle that yields a nominal interest rate NIR to be risk-free, NIR has to be <= MGR (otherwise it needs to capture an ever greater share of the monetary stock).

That implies RIR <= yGR

Reposted article with reposting of old comments.

I guess we are "doomed to repeat it".

I am not sure if I have a good feel for how the money supply would have to act going forward.

It seems like the supply of goods and services could contract quite quickly and unpredictably going forward--a loss of credit availability could invoke Liebig's Law of the Minimum on some production chains. Loss of some segments of foreign trade could make it impossible for either the former exporter or the former importer to manufacture some goods that one of them might might previously have been able to manufacture. None of the relationships are linear. They all depend on Liebig's Law of the Minimum.

It would seem like a new currency wound need to divide up whatever is available at a point in time. Since the amount of goods and services available is likely to go down over time, it is hard to see how debt financing could used to a significant extent, especially if the downward steps are unpredictable. You talk about risk free interest rates becoming negative. This would certainly have the effect of discouraging lending.

It seems like one would almost need a monetary supply that decreases over time. Perhaps, money could be issued that is only good for one year, and expires. The amount of money issued each month could decline, as resources and expected output decline. People could not really "save" this money, but that is right. In a declining world, money cannot really be a store of value. A person would need to convert the money into some real goods or an investment in something like a factory. Real goods would tend to need maintenance, and thus would tend to have lower value over time. Factories, because they depend on inputs which are becoming less and less available, would tend to have short life spans.

It seems like the net result would be to encourage a very limited technology world, where everyone works, and produce mostly the outputs they themselves need. Perhaps governmental tax and spending plans could provide some investment.

Gail, the ultimate reason why the amount of goods available is likely to go down over time is Hubbert's Peak (for oil and other things). Therefore, even if the money supply was constant over time, as would be the case if gold was used, there would be inflation (same money, less goods). Of course, with today's fractional reserve banking, debt-based system, which requires the money supply to grow, there would be much higher inflation (after the current deleveraging process).

My personal position on the issue of monetary systems is not trying to get too imaginative. Precious metals-based monetary systems have been used for thousand of years. Remember that on the downward side of Hubbert's Peak complexity is a liability for a system. A pm-based monetary system with 100% reserve banking is simple and resilient. And it would satisfy your requirement of not really being a store of value in a declining world, for there would still be inflation as said above.

Besides, even if countries could use various fancy fiat money systems, to have a fair system for international trade, transactions between countries should be conducted using gold or at least a paper currency that could be redeemed for gold by foreign holders (as was the dollar till 1971). Only that kind of system would prevent a country from getting an unfair advantage, something for nothing, a "free lunch".

I think you are right about keeping the currency simple. If everyone knows that the currency will lose value over time, that may be good enough.

I'd be interested in your thoughts about demurrage/carry-tax economic systems?

From a recent comment of mine:

Here is my preferred monetary system: demurrage based, money is created at a rate equal to the demurrage losses such that the money supply is constant on a per capita basis. Newly created money is distributed evenly to every person. Alternatively, some (or all) of the newly created money could be diverted to public funding in lieu of income and sales taxes.

I think there are a great many benefits to such a system. Most notably that it is an inherently stable system (in a mathematical systems analysis sort of way), contrary to our current debt-based, positive compound interest, fractional reserve system. I think the tax-alternative and budget aspects are pretty promising too.

The implementation would be fairly simple and straight-forward; basically banks become tax collectors and pay the government a percentage of all their deposits. (Do you think that might inspire lending?)

To prevent a flight to cash, bill issues would have expiration dates (organized in overlapping issues), and the treasury would sell them at a premium to face value to account for the devaluation incurred up to the expiration date.

To prevent systemic shock, a gradual, well defined transition should take place, consisting of the following actions:

1. The demurrage rate should be gradually increased to its final value.

2. To allow fixed-rate interest bearing instruments to be unwound and re-negotiated gracefully, the money supply will be gradually increased to it's final per capita value. This would be necessarily inflationary (but at least predictably so). Specific actions to this effect:

2a. The treasury will cease to issue debt instruments. The national debt will cease to grow from day 1. All government spending will constitute new money, without any debt encumbrance.

2b. To further increase money supply, the treasury will begin buying back its debts at a measured pace.

2c. The government will meet its social security and medicare commitments (possibly renegotiated), infrastructure modernization, and hey, how about some energy programs?

3. To compensate for excessive money generation from the policies of #2 (esp 2c!), the bank reserve ratio will be increased, which will exert deflationary pressure.

4. At the end of the transition period, a mandatory balanced budget clause will become in effect. Government budgets must be payed by carry-fees during the same fiscal period. The financial system should now be national debt free, zero inflation, and stable even in zero or negative growth periods. Yay.

The biggest problem I see with this systems, is one of perception. People are used to seeing money as an asset, rather than a tool to facilitate commerce. The two views are contradictory as was the first point of my earlier comment. That and the big banks might not like it much... :-/

Eliminating the personal and corporate income tax might be a sufficient enticement though.

"such that the money supply is constant on a per capita basis"

Let's see if we can get the same result using a precious metals-based monetary system with 100% reserve banking:

1. The money supply grows at the same rate than above-ground bullion stocks. Since after Hubbert's Peak the extraction rate of all minerals will decline, the rate of growth of the money supply will be very low, tending to zero.

2. For reasons amply discussed in TOD, population growth will also stop.

Thus, in the Steady-State scenario feasible after PO, a pm-based monetary system with 100% reserve banking would provide for a constant money supply per capita.

See also that deposits in 100% reserve banks not only do not yield interest (as those banks do not lend) but also experience a small demurrage from the fee the banks cover for their service, though that fee might not be proportional to the account balance (e.g. they might charge per transaction).

Now, why do I prefer this system to yours? As I said in other comment, for simplicy and resilience. Frankly, your system (particularly "Newly created money is distributed evenly to every person") is very good indeed, but with human nature as it is, I don't think it stands a chance, particularly for big countries. And sure enough, while your target system could be zero inflation even in negative growth periods, a gold-based system would cause some inflation during those periods (same coins, less goods). A bit of inflation, however, is not seen as bad by Gail and others.

You are also right in that the transition is important, and your steps might be useful also for the transition to a pm-based system.

Is your choice of gold because of its history in that role?

I have a huge problem with gold as currency. Not as an asset, but as currency. Gold is far too good to be a currency. Value dense, doesn't degrade, etc. When times got rough, I'd hold on to my gold, since at least it wouldn't disappear. If everyone did that there would be not any commerce, since no money would circulate.

Any currency already has an advantage over real goods and services due to its universality. Add on top, that currency is a good store of value, and ordinary goods should be seen at a big disadvantage in trade, since money in hand is surely more useful and safer than most anything for which you would trade it.

The first and foremost job of a currency is to circulate. I think the properties of a currency should encourage its circulation. A demurrage charge is designed for that very purpose. The longer you hold it, the greater your losses. The currency has now been knocked down a notch; to be more on par with real goods, not superior to them.

Now if you wish to buy gold with your currency, good, it will make a fine asset. But the currency will keep circulating, since the original owner of the gold will now have to find something to do with the currency.

Essentially, the paradigm shift is to stop perceiving money as an asset, and start seeing it as a shared resource. That's my take on it anyway.

I haven't really thought this through, but it seems to me that the total amount of money will have to go down from what is implied by all the debt and promises out there now. We are not going to be able to give everyone full social security and Medicare benefits, and keep the system solvent. Perhaps your renegotiation covers this. I am not sure how you would handle all of the derivatives. It seems like somehow the US government will have to pay off all its debt, and not issue new debt. This will be an interesting experience.

The other thing that comes to mind is that we are dealing with an international marketplace. Whatever system is used necessarily has to be simple, and probably pretty similar everywhere. I'm afraid this system would be too complicated to be used in villages in Africa. It would also be next to impossible to get everyone to agree on its details.

Because of these issues, I am not sure it would work in practice, but it does offer some interesting ideas.

Hi Gail, thanks for the reply. I'm not sure what you mean when you say that the money supply would have to decrease due to current debts.

I don't have any doubt that we could provide full retirement benefits, but I rather seriously doubt that we will want to. It is certainly a theoretical possibility that every working person in the United States could devote one half or more of their productive time to the care of our retired citizens. I don't think there are many non-retired persons that would like that idea.

Our current system is certainly more complex than the one I propose. I think the problem is that the concept is strange at first glance. But really, the concept is exceedingly simple: a tax on money. Is income tax more simple? Collecting sales tax at every point of sale? Which taxes incentivize strong commerce? Penalize making money, penalize participating in commerce, or penalize the interruption of commerce by withholding the medium of exchange?

I don't see why it would be any more complex for villagers in Africa to trade pieces of paper (or any other token) that have expiration dates as opposed to pieces of paper without expiration dates.

We are living in 'The Bad Loan Universe'.

In the good loan universe, loans are repaid and the 'money supply component' of lending disappears as a part of the process of repayment. In a well- managed fiat system there is never more credit issued than is demanded by productivity. Productivity in the good loan universe as measured in a transparent and equitable way. The rate of return or earnings on money lent is productive only as it produces value to the original borrower.

In the Bad Loan Universe, laundered credit is considered capital and the resulting inflation is considered productivity. Here, currency exchange is imbalanced and surpluses are loaned against creating even greater money supply and allowing even more bad loans, since there is always more currency than there are good investment opportunities. The flood of cheap money encourages consumption over investment. Loans eventually fall into arrears, consequently, they never disappear from the creditors' books. The money supply component created with each original loan remains. At the same time, the additional money supply component created to rescue the lenders from bankruptcy or to service the currency imbalances are added to the swelling total of unpayable loans. It's the worst of all possible universes; the money supply expands exponentially while the created credit always remains attached like a leach to the original lenders' balance sheets ... and their foolish successors'.

At the center of The Bad Loan Universe this successor dwells, that bloated, feverish black hole of zombie credit, 'The Federal Reserve Bank'. It swells with bad loans that never disappear, but requiring nevertheless more and more interest from the surrounding productive universes. The more bad loans it swallows, the more bad loans it propagates, since all loans that fall into its ambit become tainted by the ralationship and considered 'bad'. 'Sound' planets and nebulae become insolvent in a matter of days, weeks or ... hours, ss their borrowed collateral is rendered equally suspect as that actually within The Bad Loan Universe.

The story has an unhappy ending, I'm afraid ... so I won't tell it. You have to use your imagination.

A new universe of good loans will soon arise from the radioactive plasma left behind by the vaporization of The Bad Loan Universe. If its inhabitants are clever, it may have several different money supplies, that accurately measure and service the different social functions that will require finance. There should be a 'basis' money that values resources and rewards husbandry. A good loan universe would have a free exchange of different currencies while keeping enough separation between them so that problems with one don't infect the others. In the Niewe Good Loan Universe, currency imbalances are quickly rectified by entities buying and selling reserves and monitoring exchange rates, rather than lending against accumulated foreign currency reserves.

Finally, The Good Loan Universe will understand that money supply is only a tool and its misuse will rapidly cause the good lending environment to morph into another Bad Loan Universe.

You have some interesting insights there the Bad Loan Universe:

laundered credit is considered capital and the resulting inflation is considered productivity

'The Federal Reserve Bank'. It swells with bad loans that never disappear, but requiring nevertheless more and more interest from the surrounding productive universes. The more bad loans it swallows, the more bad loans it propagates, since all loans that fall into its ambit become tainted by the ralationship and considered 'bad'.

Unfortunately, I don't currently have any insights on how to get from where we are now to where we need to go ... without tremendous agony.

It doesn't help that the people in charge are living in a dreamworld.

Even a good plan will face tremendous obstacles and will be a race against the ecological time bombs.

Sorry to sound dumb but I lost you after the 3rd equation, any chance of some conclusions to your work. What's a loaf of bread going to cost me in 20 years...?

Nick.

Nick, these are the conclusions from the equations:

1. The existence of a widely available, RISK-FREE interest bearing investment requires a "soft" monetary system, meaning one where the monetary stock grows at a rate at least equal to the nominal risk-free interest rate.

2. For that investment to also yield a REAL positive interest rate, real economic output must grow at that rate or higher. After Hubbert's Peak, real GDP growth rates will be negative for a (hopefully not very long) time until eventually becoming zero (Daly's steady-state economy), and so will REAL "risk-free" interest rates.

I'm not sure I quite buy this notion of the inevitability of zero real interest rates in a zero-growth economy. In a zero-growth, steady-state economy, a high priority must be the minimization of waste. In order to minimize misallocation and waste of resouorces, every asset, including money, must have a rental value. Otherwise, that asset is "free"; when a resource is "free", that encourages wasteful use of that resource (as we have discovered over and over to our regret).

If people could think clearly they would realize that the asset was not really free: it takes as much pain to return the exact amount of money that you have borrowed when the total stock of money has remained constant, as to return the principal plus x% interest when the total stock of money has increased by x% during that period.

Besides, the perception of an asset being "free" would discourage lending as much as it would encourage borrowing.

This may be too radical an idea, but I am not sure money can be considered an asset (in the sense we think of an asset today) any more. It is something that facilitates transactions. It doesn't really work as a store of value any more, if the amount of money remains constant, but the amount of goods it can buy goes down over time. Anyone wanting to borrow money will have to pay for both the expected loss in value and a rental charge. It will be very difficult to find any investment opportunities with a high enough rate of return to justify such debt. For this reason, I see debt (except very short term debt) as pretty much dead if we have a declining economy.

There is a kind of entropy, degradation, decay, or depreciation inherent in most, if not all, non-organic assets. And, after a certain point, it is also inherent in all organic assets. Materials wear out, machines break down, living things age, food decays, energy is lost to heat during energy transfer.

In some cases the decay is measured in days or weeks, but in other cases it can be measured in centuries or millennia.

Money is the representation of the value in these assets, and of the energy needed to move them around.

So there is, and has always been, some inherent value-loss in the holding of money.

But if money could be viewed as an investment in an index fund of ALL available goods and services on the planet, the risk of value-loss ascribed to it is distributed across everything it represents.

You are right, but somehow all of our financial planners have missed the entropy part. The emphasis has been on all of the growth and reinvestment of profits.

There are alternatives to the lending/borrowing/interest model. For example, a good could be bought by the person with surplus funds and leased to the person without for a fixed period. The lease payments represent rent on the asset, presumably set at a rate that will enable the owner to recover his/her capital and depreciation plus enough extra to make it worth his while.

Another possible model, relevant in the business sector, is for those needing funds to sell equity stakes in exchange for a capital infusion, with the contributor of the capital then receiving compensation in the form of distribution of earnings plus possible capital appreciation.

Your analysis above needs to be informed by the fact that in a theoretical hard currency, 100% reserve system, these alternatives would continue to exist, and borrowers would have to offer a rate of interest sufficiently high as to make lending more attractive for those with surplus funds to invest than are these alternatives.

Of note, the biblical prohibition of interest:

Ex 22:24 - "If you lend money to one of your poor neighbors among my people, you shall not act like an extortioner toward him by demanding interest from him"

Lev 25:37 - "You are to lend him neither money at interest nor food at a profit."

Ez 18:8 -"if he does not lend at interest nor exact usury..."

was issued when the monetary system in effect was pure precious metals-based. And it applies only to that system, so that it is legitimate to earn interest from soft monetary systems. That's because the properties of the currency (the entity performing the functions of money) are fundamentally different between pure pm-based systems (where gold and silver have to be mined), and soft systems (where central banks can easily print bills and even more easily create their electronic equivalent).

Your metaphysics sucks, keep everyone safe, stick to surfing. Has WisdomFromPakistan seen this bullshit.