If we start to think long term, and I mean decades ahead, I see quasi energy "independence" as a given. Not in the political way the phrase is used, but in a biophysical sense that is inherently local or geographically regional.

Without cheap transportation fuels, wouldn't any economy need to shrink the geographic area in which it extracts and combines materials to make and circulate products and wastes? And wouldn't this area likely be no larger than the size of a major continent such as North America?

Or should I have faith in a global supergrid, where someday I can expect some portion of my electricity here in California to come from arrays dispersed across the Sahara?

I think you are right in the direction we are moving in -- inherently local economies. It may not take all that long, if the financial breakdown is severe.

A global supergrid, or even a vastly enhanced US grid, is probably a pipe dream. It will become harder and harder just to maintain what we have, as oil supplies decline and credit becomes more scarce.

Intercontinental trade depends on water shipping, and as best I can tell that won't go away with peak oil.

Here's a discussion and analysis. See http://energyfaq.blogspot.com/2008/09/can-shipping-survive-peak-oil.html

What do you think? Does it make sense?