The Oil Drum

21 comments on A little more on CERA

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Heading Out on September 7, 2005 - 11:27am

What I am doing is going through the projects, year by year, that CERA said would contribute to the oil flow by the year 2010. The ones that I have listed above are those that they had anticipated would start in 2005, and as you may note, some have and some will be delayed into 2006.

Later this week I will do the same thing for 2006 and next week probably 2007. I don't have their projects for 2008 and 2009. I will then do the same for the projects from ODAC that were not covered by CERA. Then I might wander around and see if there are any more that should be considered.

Once we have the total list in a table, it will be fairly easy to post the occasional update telling folk where we are with it (and possibly adding additional projects since there is exploratory work that should yield some). The only thing that folk need to remember is that all these are big projects that take significant lead-time and some are sensitive to other issues that may cause delays. And since I will be anticipating production in 2010 the numbers that I will use in the tables will be the operating anticipated maximum production, rather than the step-up values as they bring the field on stream. If folks have other suggestions I would be glad to hear them.

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Rembrandt on September 7, 2005 - 12:16pm

You might want to take a look at this to safe yourself some work.

http://www.peakoil.nl/images/oil_production_outlook_2005-2040.pdf

I emailed you guys about it before but got no response.

As for the 2005 fields:

You are missing these bigger fields (above 50.000 b/d), also some smaller ones ofcourse.

Algeria, Hassi Messaoud, EOR
Iran, South Pars, Gas Condensates
Iran, Darquain
UAE, Bu Hasa, EOR
UAE, al-Dabb-iya, Rumaitha, and Shanaget
Mexico, Ku-Maloob-Zaab, EOR
Mexico, Crudo Ligero Marino
Mexico, Lankahuasa basin
Brazil, Jubarte
Trinidad & Tobago, Greater Angostura
Norway, Kristin Deepwater (oil, gas condensate)
Angola, Bomboco & north Sanha (Oil, condensate, LPG)
Congo Brazaville, Moho North, Moho South, Bilondo
Australia, Mutineer-Exeter
China, Peng Lai

The other fields mentioned:

Bonga no comments, bonga southwest is coming onstream around 2009.

Kizomba B, already on-stream and producing

Albacora Leste has 2 phases, 1 for 145.000 b/d and the second for an additional 100.000 b/d.

White rose, peak is scheduled at 92.000 b/d

Thunder horse, no comments

Dharkhovein, 2 phases, 1 already onstream this year (around 55.000 b/d) and phase 2 for next year (110.000 b/d)

Adar Yale (and tale), i agree with the EIA (300.000 end 2006)

Primorsk, no comments

ACG Megastructure. 500.000 of production ramping up until 2007. Not 410.000 b/d this year i think. also 2 additional phases later.

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Heading Out on September 7, 2005 - 12:31pm

Rembrandt:
I apologize for not replying to the e-mail, I was travelling at the time, and did not see it until a time I thought too late to reply. (And I suspect that the rest of the team just assumed that I had written separately). It sounds as though you have been working the same issue as I. With a little time (I have to give a seminar on all this tomorrow morning) I will go through your report in more detail and get back to you.

My feeling is that it is only by tracking these numbers that one can begin to see what the future holds. But one also needs to find a variety of sources from which to get the data. We have seen the OPEC numbers from different sources vary quite considerably within the last few months.

HO

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Bubba on September 7, 2005 - 6:11pm

Looking through the list of projects in this paper I find that it is quite comprehensive. One thing though, the daily rates quoted for most of these projects are their 100% uptime, nameplate-capacity maximum rates. Most of the offshore projects are facility constrained (oil, water, gas, and/or total fluid, etc)and cannot really maintain these rates on a full time basis. It is probably best to assume 90% to 95% of the quoted rates as the likely volume they add to the world market.