As a person reads through this report, one can't help but thinking the devil is in the details. Gasoline usage varies greatly by state, largely because of distances people need to travel. One of the questions is how one adjusts for this.

The part I quote below from Appendix III (not included above) indicates that Wyoming is the state with highest per capita use, but would receive ration coupons at just the average rate for all states. Wyoming is also where a lot of our coal and natural gas comes from. If the allocation scheme doesn't give workers enough oil (or businesses enough oil), we could see the shortage in oil spill over to shortages in coal and natural gas. Ouch!

USE OF A STATE ADJUSTMENT FACTOR
DOE estimates that automobiles would get about 53 gallons per month if rationing was imposed due to a hypothetical 20 percent gasoline shortfall. However, monthly auto gasoline consumption averages vary widely among States, from a high of 84 gallons per month in Wyoming to a low of 50 gallons in Hawaii.

Furthermore, while DOE intends to distribute the ration allotments without regard to variations in State gasoline consumption patterns, the actual physical distribution of gasoline supplies under DOE's petroleum allocation program will be carried out initially on the basis of historical State consumption figures. Thus, nine States will receive ration allotments 10 percent or more greater than their initial supplies of gasoline, while 10 States will receive initial supplies of gasoline 10 percent or more higher than their ration allotments. DOE is relying on the "white market", administrative adjustments in the allocation system, and the State ration reserves to eventually balance out gasoline supply and demand in each State. If, however, the gasoline supplies are not delivered to where the coupons are, then people will start queuing up at gasoline stations again before supplies run out, and the benefit of the rationing program will be destroyed.

The "white market" will be a costly program for drivers in certain States. Drivers in States with historically higher than average gasoline consumption will purchase excess ration allotments at $1.22 per gallon from drivers in States with lower than average consumption rates. Questions of equity are raised here, since 11 States would each have to pay out $10 million a month or more to maintain their gasoline usage at 20 percent less than normal, while 10 States could cut their consumption by 20 percent and still be recipients of over $10 million a month from sales of excess allotments.

The use of a State adjustment factor, whereby vehicles would receive ration allotments based not on a nationwide average but on individual State historical consumption figures, would better match-up available supplies and ration allotments in each State and would require less reliance on the untested "white market" system. Such a plan however, would place a greater administrative burden on DOE and make the rationing plan more complicated and expensive. Moreover, discrepancies would still exist within individual States between urban and rural vehicle usage.