<DrumBeat: October 17, 2008 The Oil Drum DrumBeat: October 18, 2008>

76 comments on A 1979 GAO Energy Report - A Template for the Future?

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PolR on October 17, 2008 - 5:12pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Fusion is not ready but wind and solar are really taking off. Are they in time? In some ways the answer has to be yes because these are the things that can scale. In some ways the answer has to be no because we are going to see rationing in response to fossil fuel supply constrains that a more dilligently followed energy program would have avoided.

Are they in time? This is an interesting question. Before we answer we need to ask are they in time for what?

I think we should strive to understand what the goal should be. There is a pervasive expectation that any new energy source should replace FF at their current level of usage. If we fail to to that, the expectation is we will revert into some third world economy or worse.

But on the other hand there is an equally pervasive frustration at the inability to get the normal North American to reduce his energy usage. There is a limit to growth and one one them is the limitations on renewable cheap energy sources.

These two pervasive ideas appears to be inconsistent. How can you maintain the current energy usage level, get the North American to conserve and build a sustainable economy all at the same time?

I am tempted to think that the goal should be to implement sustainable energy sources that meet what society needs, not what society wants. This means we figure how much energy is required after wasteful activities are optimized away and set this as the target. Then once we descend the terminal decline, society has to adapt to whatever energy remains available. If the production is sufficient we end up with an industrial economy that has been optimized to a sustainable energy usage level.

This approach would help with a lot of hairy issues:

- How to get the normal North-American to conserve.
- How to scale down the peak oil mitigation problem to a more achievable target
- How to build a society with sustainable energy usage
- How to make sure the post-peak world avoids descending into the MadMax hell

I also think it is so hard to implement sustainable energy sources at the current FF scale, a reduced level is going to be what will be achieved anyway. The question is whether there will be enough new energy production to sustain an industrial economy.

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Jonathan on October 17, 2008 - 6:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Very well stated that, for whatever reason, it seems that the average North-American doesn't want to conserve. My understanding is that in the late 70s (I was just a wee lad back then) there was an enormous conservation effort and that it was successful. So, it can be done. We just need to get back to that mindset.

I think that a large part of the problem is that the average person has no idea how electricity is made - that for most electrical generation (coal, natural gas, oil, and nuclear) fuel is used to boil water and the resulting steam spins the turbine of a generator. If they knew this, I think that they would be more likely to conserve (electricty at least), because they can imagine, picturing in their minds, the fuel being used/burned and the polution being created to boil water.

If you don't believe me, try this. Go around your office, your group on non-T.O.D friends, your church functions, asking folks, "How is electricity made?" You'll be shocked by how many people can't answer it. Another fun question is, "Can electricty be created or destroyed?" A lot of folks answer "No," confusing the basic concepts of electricty and energy.

Man, we need a serious eductional-upgrade of the average person, IMHO, before conservation will be done out of principle. Of course, prices of electricty will eventually get high enough that there will be conservation anyway.

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mdsolar on October 18, 2008 - 8:01am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I was speaking in the context of how people were thinking at the time. They were aware that fossil fuels are finite and started research into alternatives. The research was supported at a level that would provide the alternative at the time it would be needed. Fusion was considered the main thing. It is just that we are running out a little sooner than planned at that time.

Chris

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FreakWent on October 20, 2008 - 1:06am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

- How to get the normal North-American to conserve.

It appears that they respond well to lies and/or fear, so maybe that's worth a shot!

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76 comments on A 1979 GAO Energy Report - A Template for the Future?

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