I will give you a Wyoming metaphor: Once you climb on the bull, there is nothing you can do to alter the outcome.
Funny ... good metaphor. OUCH!
Actually, there are things that must be done. The world will spin and things will need attending to for those not on the bull.
-- A safety net needs to be jury- rigged into place. This crisis is serious; people in America will freeze and starve if there isn't some sort of basic care plan put into place. Having the National Guard drive around in circles will not cut it. Our government is failing to perform its duty and officials deserve to be prosecuted for dereliction and gross negligence. The worst may not happen, but it appears that it may. If it doesn't and we have a chance to avoid disaster, preparation for disaster is a good drill. If the worst happens and the economy grinds to a halt it is imperative to be prepared.
-- A plan must be developed for a command economy. This is the form of economy that will take the place of our current mess after it's done and a fork is stuck in it. The presumption is the crisis will develope quickly to the point of total collapse because of the amount of debt and unfunded liabilities overhanging the productive part of the economy. In this case the transition to the coammand economy would take place right away.
If the collapse is instead a slow decline, as in the 1930's, the government can attempt the run of ad- hoc remedies that were part of the New Deal or it can cut to the chase and embrace what will work; the command economy.
Paulson, Rubin, Summers, Bernanke et al have about as much chance of setting up a command economy as they do riding saddle bronc. There are records from the Roosevelt administration as well as a few old- timers still alive who could instruct bureaucrats how to set one up and make it function properly. Or, the government can send so people over to observe the Chinese, who have a tightly managed almost- not- quite- command economy.
The goal of the command economy would be three- fold. One would be to insure that everyone has renumerative work and sustain themselves over the transition period. The work would certainly not be war- related as it was in the 1930's and 1940's; there are a lot of infrastructure issues that need fixing, plus the business of survival will require a lot more capital and labor than is visible in our current form of widely distributed production. Second, would be to prepare the transition to the 'post- command' economy, which will be a lot different than what we have now ... and will probably be unfamiliar to anyone except for a few academic economists. The third aim would be to simplify the production cycle and get people in America used to making do with less . This will also be the most effective way to boost energy production. Btu's not used in the moment ... will be available for use later.
An incidental outcome would be the central government would husband ... or grow ... relevance as the result of services provided ... rather than by the exertion of government 'authority'.
Right now, it has diminishing authority and no plan, except for the sort of plan made by bank robbers ...
Is it reasonable to expect that there will be enough remunerative work to employ everybody if real GDP declines year after year? I do not think that is possible. Personally, I advocate a negative income tax to deal with the Greater Depression to come. It would not surprise me if the unemployement rate rises to thirty percent or more over the next dozen years. This will be both cyclical and structural unemployment, and the structural component will be harder to deal with than the cyclical component.
Funny ... good metaphor. OUCH!
Actually, there are things that must be done. The world will spin and things will need attending to for those not on the bull.
-- A safety net needs to be jury- rigged into place. This crisis is serious; people in America will freeze and starve if there isn't some sort of basic care plan put into place. Having the National Guard drive around in circles will not cut it. Our government is failing to perform its duty and officials deserve to be prosecuted for dereliction and gross negligence. The worst may not happen, but it appears that it may. If it doesn't and we have a chance to avoid disaster, preparation for disaster is a good drill. If the worst happens and the economy grinds to a halt it is imperative to be prepared.
-- A plan must be developed for a command economy. This is the form of economy that will take the place of our current mess after it's done and a fork is stuck in it. The presumption is the crisis will develope quickly to the point of total collapse because of the amount of debt and unfunded liabilities overhanging the productive part of the economy. In this case the transition to the coammand economy would take place right away.
If the collapse is instead a slow decline, as in the 1930's, the government can attempt the run of ad- hoc remedies that were part of the New Deal or it can cut to the chase and embrace what will work; the command economy.
Paulson, Rubin, Summers, Bernanke et al have about as much chance of setting up a command economy as they do riding saddle bronc. There are records from the Roosevelt administration as well as a few old- timers still alive who could instruct bureaucrats how to set one up and make it function properly. Or, the government can send so people over to observe the Chinese, who have a tightly managed almost- not- quite- command economy.
The goal of the command economy would be three- fold. One would be to insure that everyone has renumerative work and sustain themselves over the transition period. The work would certainly not be war- related as it was in the 1930's and 1940's; there are a lot of infrastructure issues that need fixing, plus the business of survival will require a lot more capital and labor than is visible in our current form of widely distributed production. Second, would be to prepare the transition to the 'post- command' economy, which will be a lot different than what we have now ... and will probably be unfamiliar to anyone except for a few academic economists. The third aim would be to simplify the production cycle and get people in America used to making do with less . This will also be the most effective way to boost energy production. Btu's not used in the moment ... will be available for use later.
An incidental outcome would be the central government would husband ... or grow ... relevance as the result of services provided ... rather than by the exertion of government 'authority'.
Right now, it has diminishing authority and no plan, except for the sort of plan made by bank robbers ...
Is it reasonable to expect that there will be enough remunerative work to employ everybody if real GDP declines year after year? I do not think that is possible. Personally, I advocate a negative income tax to deal with the Greater Depression to come. It would not surprise me if the unemployement rate rises to thirty percent or more over the next dozen years. This will be both cyclical and structural unemployment, and the structural component will be harder to deal with than the cyclical component.