Pit I made a vow not to respond to you but in this case I must.
World population grows every year year end and year out. If in any given year the oil supply growth does not exceed the population growth you have a deficit to balance.
These people don't simply disappear in the years that oil production increases did not meet population growth you have to carry them forward.
Given that 2008 is not over yet lets wait till we see the end of the year we have every indication that production is now dropping rapidly.
I'm happy to just call these flat so lets assume population increased in 2006 and 2007 by 1.2% this means to reach the same amount of oil per capita we need at least a 2.4% increase in oil production vs 2005.
Including the year of the increase we would need to see 3.6%
I stand by my argument I'd be surprised given this post
Its fairly obvious that the year will not end with a 3.6% increase megaprojects for 2009 is not looking promising although or deficit was shrunk this year it was not eliminated.
However if your serious about this you need to do a bit more work and work population vs oil supply back at least say ten years to get a good grasp on the current status of population vs oil supply.
For example 2004 was 83,104.80
So you had a 1.5% grow and thus 0.3% "extra" oil this year.
2000-2001 it went down.
The simple observation that peak production last time was in 2005 and we only finally broke it in 2008 is sufficient to suspect that oil production as not kept up with population growth.
Feel free to to work the problem correctly and get back with me.
Or cherry pick numbers to make your point.
I would not worry too much about year-to-year rises and falls, differences of a percent or two can easily be made up by more efficiency or waste. We have to look at the general trend.
population, M
oil, Mbbl/day
oil, pc/yr
1950
2,518
10.42
1.51
1955
2,755
15.41
2.04
1960
2,981
21.03
2.57
1965
3,334
31.8
3.48
1970
3,692
48.06
4.75
1975
4,068
56.49
5.06
1980
4,434
63.86
5.25
1985
4,830
59.12
4.46
1990
5,263
66.78
4.63
1995
5,674
70.42
4.53
2000
6,070
76.92
4.62
2005
6,453
85.46
4.83
And the general trend is that the amount of oil available per person peaked around 1980. Of course these figures are total oil production, not net available - but nobody's been able to produce net oil figures for the world yet.
The other thing to bear in mind is that the places with the largest population growth have actually seen the least growth in oil consumption. The biggest growth in consumption over the 1950-2005 period has come from the low population growth First World countries.
Yeah this is better but you should also bring in GDP growth each year vs population vs oil.
The problem is of course this conflates efficiency claims esp if you start looking at individual countries.
For example in the US we claim that the US has become much more efficient at using oil since the 1970's but this does not include the export of a lot of basic manufacturing overseas. And worse if you start looking at per person GDP growth or oil usage in the countries where manufacturing was exports the demographics tends to hide the truth.
Per capita oil consumption goes up but given that a lot of this is fueled by manufacturing for exports its not near as large a real growth in general wealth in the exporting countries.
Although the per capita oil usage peaked in 1980 the process was set in motion back in the 1970's with the move to pure fiat curriencies coupled with the peak of US production. It just took a bit for US production to decline and oil imports to increase and fiat currency inflation to become noticeable.
These are some of the underlying reasons we are seeing trends out to 100 years start peaking at the same time. The wheel where set in motion a long time ago. And as you showed the path we have chosen was firmly established by 1980.
A particular reason to look at the last few years however is that a tremendous amount of debt has been created to induce growth. In general the worlds GDP has been inflated by a moved into the financial world. So the GDP itself has been heavily inflated by growth in areas that at the end of the day actually remove money from more productive pursuits.
Whats really interesting is that the world does not even really try to compute what I'd call sustainable wealth. And easy metric would be the amount of personal savings in the bottom half of the worlds wage scale adjusted for inflation.
Given that most of the population of these third world countries barely participate in the modern banking system how can Morgan-Stanley talk about how much they have saved ?
One thing I've not found is the actual spread of savings amongst the population in third world countries even though we have tons of information that the wealth is highly concentrated in the top 1%.
No way we can talk about general GDP, oil usage and net savings without dealing with concentration of wealth. In fact in general it looks like overall all thats happened is that the exporting countries have created more extremely rich individuals.
And last but not least what has allowed this charade to continue ?
Assuming since 1980 the worlds gotten poorer outside of the top 1% whats happened ?
Why did we pull this off ?
Turns out that fertilizer was probably the underlying reason for success.
As the world increased its work force by the billion these billions in general are focused on obtaining enough food. We have been highly successful in providing bread for the masses. Also another incredibly important factor thats overlooked in the time honored Roman tradition is the circus.
Not only did these super poor people get access to bread they where also submerged with American entertainment. Real increases in personal wealth amongst the poor was successfully replaced with dreams of personal wealth as seen on TV.
Often overlooked and ignored the combination of food and the modern remote circus ala TV and music and las the internet has resulted in people willingly playing by the rules expecting to get their SUV and McMansion any day. And although in many countries when people are interviewed they publicly decry the sex and violence they perceive through films in America we should probably assume that the reality is quite different and the flood of effectively porn into the third world has acted as a sedative to the masses encouraging them to dream of making it to the land flowing with sex.
The selling of real food and virtual sex to the world by the wealthy is probably and not unsurprisingly the real reason that the warped financial system has worked.
Nothing more then bread and circus's just like the Romans.
Of course as peoples lives really worsen in the sense that the food supply worsens I suspect they will reevaluate their warped view of the American Dream.
Yeah this is better but you should also bring in GDP growth each year vs population vs oil.
I could, but
(a) GDP is meaningless, and
(2) that would go beyond the scope of a comment on an article on a blog, with both comment and article disappearing into obscurity in a week or so.
The rest about savings and the like I consider not much of an issue. Money's just an abstraction, its twins purposes being to make trade easier and act as a store of value - two purposes which don't have to be in the same thing, but in this case are. But what is the purpose of trading and storing value? To give us better lives.
There are not a lot of measures of quality of life. The UN's HDI (Human Development Index) is made up of,
1/3 GDP per capita
1/3 longevity
1/3 education, which is 2/3 adult literacy and 1/3 tertiary enrolment
so even that measure brings in useless GDP, but the other 2/3 I think are a fair measure - if people in general live a long time and can read and write and have a few well-educated ones around them, then probably a lot of other things are going well for the country.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution
[...]
Not only did these super poor people get access to bread they where also submerged with American entertainment. Real increases in personal wealth amongst the poor was successfully replaced with dreams of personal wealth as seen on TV.
Most of the "super poor people" who actually benefited from the Green Revolution have never seen a television, so can't get any dreams from it. Rather, what they saw was in their own communities, some well-off individuals in homes with running water and electricity, meat eaten every day, cars and radios and so on.
And most of the countries with very poor people in them have always had these well-off individuals as examples, but they just assumed things had to be that way. But as democracy has spread, one of the things people have done with their free speech is to demand better lives.
Pit I made a vow not to respond to you but in this case I must.
World population grows every year year end and year out. If in any given year the oil supply growth does not exceed the population growth you have a deficit to balance.
These people don't simply disappear in the years that oil production increases did not meet population growth you have to carry them forward.
Given that 2008 is not over yet lets wait till we see the end of the year we have every indication that production is now dropping rapidly.
In any case
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilproduction.html
2005 84,561.47
2006 84,521.21
2007 84,407.57
I'm happy to just call these flat so lets assume population increased in 2006 and 2007 by 1.2% this means to reach the same amount of oil per capita we need at least a 2.4% increase in oil production vs 2005.
Including the year of the increase we would need to see 3.6%
I stand by my argument I'd be surprised given this post
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/4676
Its fairly obvious that the year will not end with a 3.6% increase megaprojects for 2009 is not looking promising although or deficit was shrunk this year it was not eliminated.
However if your serious about this you need to do a bit more work and work population vs oil supply back at least say ten years to get a good grasp on the current status of population vs oil supply.
For example 2004 was 83,104.80
So you had a 1.5% grow and thus 0.3% "extra" oil this year.
2000-2001 it went down.
The simple observation that peak production last time was in 2005 and we only finally broke it in 2008 is sufficient to suspect that oil production as not kept up with population growth.
Feel free to to work the problem correctly and get back with me.
Or cherry pick numbers to make your point.
I would not worry too much about year-to-year rises and falls, differences of a percent or two can easily be made up by more efficiency or waste. We have to look at the general trend.
And the general trend is that the amount of oil available per person peaked around 1980. Of course these figures are total oil production, not net available - but nobody's been able to produce net oil figures for the world yet.
The other thing to bear in mind is that the places with the largest population growth have actually seen the least growth in oil consumption. The biggest growth in consumption over the 1950-2005 period has come from the low population growth First World countries.
Yeah this is better but you should also bring in GDP growth each year vs population vs oil.
The problem is of course this conflates efficiency claims esp if you start looking at individual countries.
For example in the US we claim that the US has become much more efficient at using oil since the 1970's but this does not include the export of a lot of basic manufacturing overseas. And worse if you start looking at per person GDP growth or oil usage in the countries where manufacturing was exports the demographics tends to hide the truth.
Per capita oil consumption goes up but given that a lot of this is fueled by manufacturing for exports its not near as large a real growth in general wealth in the exporting countries.
Although the per capita oil usage peaked in 1980 the process was set in motion back in the 1970's with the move to pure fiat curriencies coupled with the peak of US production. It just took a bit for US production to decline and oil imports to increase and fiat currency inflation to become noticeable.
These are some of the underlying reasons we are seeing trends out to 100 years start peaking at the same time. The wheel where set in motion a long time ago. And as you showed the path we have chosen was firmly established by 1980.
A particular reason to look at the last few years however is that a tremendous amount of debt has been created to induce growth. In general the worlds GDP has been inflated by a moved into the financial world. So the GDP itself has been heavily inflated by growth in areas that at the end of the day actually remove money from more productive pursuits.
Whats really interesting is that the world does not even really try to compute what I'd call sustainable wealth. And easy metric would be the amount of personal savings in the bottom half of the worlds wage scale adjusted for inflation.
http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2007/20070604-Mon.html
What this fails to address is that most of this supposed global savings is concentrated int sovereign wealth funds and multi-national corporations.
You can question the real savings rate calculations easily.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/08/whats-behind-soaring-...
And further you can question the savings rate for third world countries.
http://www.dallasfed.org/research/eclett/2008/el0807.html
Given that most of the population of these third world countries barely participate in the modern banking system how can Morgan-Stanley talk about how much they have saved ?
http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2005/06/international-saving-comparisons.html
One thing I've not found is the actual spread of savings amongst the population in third world countries even though we have tons of information that the wealth is highly concentrated in the top 1%.
http://www.undp.org.cn/downloads/nhdr2005/06chapter2.pdf
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2004/jun2004/rich-j22.shtml
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2006-12/unu-pss120106.php
No way we can talk about general GDP, oil usage and net savings without dealing with concentration of wealth. In fact in general it looks like overall all thats happened is that the exporting countries have created more extremely rich individuals.
And last but not least what has allowed this charade to continue ?
Assuming since 1980 the worlds gotten poorer outside of the top 1% whats happened ?
Why did we pull this off ?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution
Turns out that fertilizer was probably the underlying reason for success.
As the world increased its work force by the billion these billions in general are focused on obtaining enough food. We have been highly successful in providing bread for the masses. Also another incredibly important factor thats overlooked in the time honored Roman tradition is the circus.
Not only did these super poor people get access to bread they where also submerged with American entertainment. Real increases in personal wealth amongst the poor was successfully replaced with dreams of personal wealth as seen on TV.
Often overlooked and ignored the combination of food and the modern remote circus ala TV and music and las the internet has resulted in people willingly playing by the rules expecting to get their SUV and McMansion any day. And although in many countries when people are interviewed they publicly decry the sex and violence they perceive through films in America we should probably assume that the reality is quite different and the flood of effectively porn into the third world has acted as a sedative to the masses encouraging them to dream of making it to the land flowing with sex.
The selling of real food and virtual sex to the world by the wealthy is probably and not unsurprisingly the real reason that the warped financial system has worked.
Nothing more then bread and circus's just like the Romans.
Of course as peoples lives really worsen in the sense that the food supply worsens I suspect they will reevaluate their warped view of the American Dream.
I could, but
(a) GDP is meaningless, and
(2) that would go beyond the scope of a comment on an article on a blog, with both comment and article disappearing into obscurity in a week or so.
The rest about savings and the like I consider not much of an issue. Money's just an abstraction, its twins purposes being to make trade easier and act as a store of value - two purposes which don't have to be in the same thing, but in this case are. But what is the purpose of trading and storing value? To give us better lives.
There are not a lot of measures of quality of life. The UN's HDI (Human Development Index) is made up of,
1/3 GDP per capita
1/3 longevity
1/3 education, which is 2/3 adult literacy and 1/3 tertiary enrolment
so even that measure brings in useless GDP, but the other 2/3 I think are a fair measure - if people in general live a long time and can read and write and have a few well-educated ones around them, then probably a lot of other things are going well for the country.
Most of the "super poor people" who actually benefited from the Green Revolution have never seen a television, so can't get any dreams from it. Rather, what they saw was in their own communities, some well-off individuals in homes with running water and electricity, meat eaten every day, cars and radios and so on.
And most of the countries with very poor people in them have always had these well-off individuals as examples, but they just assumed things had to be that way. But as democracy has spread, one of the things people have done with their free speech is to demand better lives.
K
a guest post on this would be most welcomed...
On what, exactly? Email me and let me know.