The ELM is based on declining production and increased internal consumption in exporting countries. The example you've chosen supports my observation that the core of ELM (95% of it) is just depletion/declining net energy*. The 'increase in consumption' part is largely extranneous.

The core of my ELM argument--which seems blindingly obviously, but as we have discussed, is widely overlooked--is that production declines in exporting countries magnify the net export decline, because domestic demand tends to be satisfied before oil is exported.

Just use the Rule of 72 and consider the initial conditions for Export Land--production of 2 mbpd and consumption of one mbpd (and net exports of one mbpd). With no increase in consumption, and a -5%/year production decline rate, production would be cut in half in about 14 years, to one mbpd, when consumption would equal production, so net oil exports = zero. So, a 50% drop in production would be a 100% decline in net oil exports.

BTW, I looked up the 10 year consumption increases for the (2006) top 10 net oil exporters. It looks like it was about +2.6%/year, from 8.7 mbpd in 1997 to
11. 3 mbpd in 2007 (EIA). Saudi Arabia increased at +5.1%/year over the 10 year period, but their recent consumption is higher, +7.2%/year. In any case, the previous 10 year rate of increase is probably a conservative estimate for the next 10 years, especially if we assume an upward trend in prices as export volumes decline.