56 comments on Prepping for a Repeat of 2006/2007?
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56 comments on Prepping for a Repeat of 2006/2007?
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GAIA Host Collective
I agree that job losses must have been a major contributing factor to demand reduction. But I wouldn't discount foreclosures. This forces families to relocate. They often would have to move from a remote suburb to some apartment that typically would be closer to work. I would expect that foreclosures would reduce the average commuting distance.
My bet on the next industry to generate massive job losses is the automotive industry. There is a downward spiral involving fewer VMT, lack of credit and car sales. Recent news suggest that Detroit is already traveling this path.
The problem with statements like this is every time it may be true it could also be false
thus its a statistical thing. On average I'd have to think that distance is not and overriding factor. In the US most families have both spouses working and generally their jobs may not be nearby so close for one may be farther for another. The point is we really don't know and the chances are its a wash to many other factors influence where people live.
My bet on the next industry to generate massive job losses is the automotive industry. There is a downward spiral involving fewer VMT, lack of credit and car sales. Recent news suggest that Detroit is already traveling this path.
I thought so also but when I looked I found that VMT for the rust belt states has been flat for years. Even Detroit has chanced little despite the long economic slowdown.
I'm not finding the links off hand its getting late here.
But for example here is one.
http://www.brookings.edu/reports/2008/~/media/Files/rc/reports/2008/06_m...
No huge changes between growing and stagnant cities.
The link I gave for St. Louis above has similar stats to Detroit.
Here is one for the rust belt states.
http://www.michigantrafficcrashfacts.org/doc/2005/10yr_15.pdf
On page one you can see that VMT for all these states has increased slowly despite the deteriorating economic conditions.
VMT does not grow much if at all but whats important is it also does not suffer a steep decline despite the slowing economy.
Another good site on VMT.
http://www.portlandonline.com/TRANSPORTATION/index.cfm?&a=90249&c=39561
Bottom line is that even severe economic decline seems to result in slow growth to flat VMT !
This is important since its what a lot of people believe will result in moderate fuel prices.
Historically when we enter a recession VMT flattens and is highly correlated with the housing industry decline. Since we had a monster bubble and unprecedented decline in housing its small wonder that we have seen not just the traditional flattening but a decline.
Thats it the party is over all historical data even for regions that by any standard have depression level economies indicate that VMT will effectively remain flat. This means that once oil supplies have depleted to balance remaining demand we probably will see gasoline prices increase.
We probably have not hit the point yet where gasoline prices will act as a significant curb on demand. Economic factors alone will not shift the demand curve down to create a excess.
Everything I have found indicates we will be going into a Recession and then Depression with ever spiraling gasoline prices.
And finally a lot of people are expecting that OPEC I question this assumption.
Given that depletion marches on and the we are ever closer or past world peak I suspect this time around small cuts will be capable of putting a floor under prices. Given all the economic/VMT data I've looked at.
For peak oil it looks like the crash of the housing industry is a Indian summer as another poster on this thread put it. Its a short respite before we get back on the high energy cost economic stagnation treadmill.
I hope you enjoyed a fall drive.
Thanks for the reply.
Was it you that first posted this graph? It is the history of US VMT since 1983.
There has been some periods of relatively high unemployment and/or high foreclosure rates since 1983. I think of the recessions following the stock market crashes of 1987 and 2001 for example. But there is nowhere a plateau similar to the one we have in the 2005-2007 period. There is nowhere a decline similar to the one we have in 2008. So the correlation between VMT and either unemployment of foreclosure rates do not appear to be an overriding factor. At the very least it is not confirmed by a plain eyeballing of the graph.
I am under the impression we both have to think again.
It was the mother of all housing bubbles far beyond anything we ever experienced in the past. By any metric this housing bubble was far larger than any preceding ones. Also its the peak of not just the recent bubble but the overall housing bubble since WWII.
Its the big one.
In other cases not sure why you don't see correlation VMT flattens or slows inline with previous recessions even 2001. There is a very clear plateau.
If you read my post here I jumped threads sorry.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4672#comment-425025
This is I believe the correct relationship between energy demand and the economy.
The key economic part is the number of transactions and how many are for new stuff that uses a lot of energy or in our particular case oil.
The Eused = Ntrans*Eembed
is quite similar to food.
Foodeaten = Number of people * calories desired (required)
The reason I point this out is people generally have a hard time reducing the number of total transactions either because of a growing population or that they feel the transactions are required. Going to the store to buy less food uses almost the same energy as going to the store to buy more. Going to KMart to buy one toy is almost the same as going to KMart to buy two toys. Most of the embedded energy in the form of oil lies in the trips themselves not the products purchased. You buy more coffee and drink it at home instead of at starbucks on the way to work the embedded oil is not all that different. The starbucks closes but the people go work at the grocery store because of higher demand stocking coffee.
The point is you have to look at transactions*energy cost of goods bought. You can readily save a lot of money and still surprisingly not change the overall energy equation by that much.
The embedded energy in new housing construction is HUGE and thus its not surprising that the end of the housing bubble of all time results in a drop in VMT.
The difference in the price elasticity of demand and the income elasticity of demand. The smaller plateaus during the last couple downturns are indicative of the income elasticity of demand, since oil prices were relatively stable, while the recent downturn has been indicative of the price elasticity of demand up until recently.
I am with you up to the consequences of the equation
Eused = Ntrans*Eembed
Beyond that I must disagree.
Let's take a look at a few graphs from shadowstat.com. Whats is good with this site is they correlate the official statistics with an adjusted version that takes into account changes of methodologies that occurred over time.
Let's look at the GDP here
Source: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
I can relate the small 1991 plateau in the VMT graph with the recession. Likewise for 1995. But looking at the 2001 recession, I just don't see any plateau until 2003. And the magnitude of what happens starting in 2005 doesn't even compare any of the above VMT events.
You argue this is the housing collapse. Well this doesn't chime with this graph:
Source: http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2007/10/subprime-forecl...
In this graph, the foreclosure rate was at a low in 2005 when the plateau started. In 2007 the foreclosure rate was just returning to the level observed in 2001. The timeline just doesn't match. The VMT plateau was started well before the housing collapse had even begun.
Another graph from shadowstats.com is unemployment:
Again I would be hard pressed to see a correlation between unemployment level and the plateaus in the VMT graph. The 2007 to 2007 period doesn't have especially high unemployment. And I don't see a VMT plateau comparable to 2005-2007 in the periods of high unemployment.
I agree that correlating transactions with energy used to perform the transaction is a good idea. I don't believe we have identified which transactions are being avoided or optimized to justify such an impact on VMT. The candidates being brought forward by both you and me don't correlate with the VMT data.