Brilliant article in the WSJ.

Most people now living have never seen a credit crunch like the one we are currently enduring. Ms. Schwartz, 92 years old, is one of the exceptions. She's not only old enough to remember the period from 1929 to 1933, she may know more about monetary history and banking than anyone alive. She co-authored, with Milton Friedman, "A Monetary History of the United States" (1963). It's the definitive account of how misguided monetary policy turned the stock-market crash of 1929 into the Great Depression.

It goes on to say

Ms. Schwartz won't say so, but this is the dirty little secret that led Secretary Paulson to shift from buying bank assets to recapitalizing them directly, as the Treasury did this week. But in doing so, he's shifted from trying to save the banking system to trying to save banks. These are not, Ms. Schwartz argues, the same thing. In fact, by keeping otherwise insolvent banks afloat, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury have actually prolonged the crisis. "They should not be recapitalizing firms that should be shut down."

Rather, "firms that made wrong decisions should fail," she says bluntly. "You shouldn't rescue them. And once that's established as a principle, I think the market recognizes that it makes sense. Everything works much better when wrong decisions are punished and good decisions make you rich." The trouble is, "that's not the way the world has been going in recent years."

This is exactly the type of sophistry one would expect from the free market fundamentalists at the Wall Street Journal and the acolytes of Milton Friedman. It is replete with half-truths and verisimilitudes.

Missing from the picture is of course the twenty-ton elephant in the room, which was the deregulation of the financial industry that grew like a snowball rolling down a mountain over the last 35 years.

We're going to be hearing a lot of these sorts of half-truths and re-writes of history coming out of the main stream media in the days, weeks and months ahead, but thank heavens we have blogs like Calculated Risk and The Big Picture to remind us of the facts and call these zealots of neoliberalism onto the carpet for the incredible destruction their ideologies have wrought:

The problem I have with this piece is it centers on Greenspan's monetary policy and ignores Greenspan's far larger mistake; opposing oversight when many people were pointing out the extremely lax lending standards.

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/10/cnn-culprits-of-collapse.html

I believe that infact a LACK of free markets has been the real problem. Mish has answered this in full many times.

Is More Regulation The Answer?

Actually the answer is no. The reason is that no one traces problems back to their original origin. The problems in the 1920's and the problems now did not arise from insufficient regulation. The problems then and now stem from rampant and excessive extension of credit. The origin of credit problems lies in fractional reserve lending.

Fractional reserve lending allows banks and other institutions to lend more money out than they have on deposit. Credit expansion now dwarfs what we saw in the 1920's. You can thank President Nixon for that. When Nixon closed the gold window (Ron Paul discusses the gold window in The End of Dollar Hegemony) the last remaining control over credit expansion was removed. Credit has since exploded.

Glass-Steagall is nothing but a smokescreen. The problem is massive credit expansion that created artificial booms such as we saw in housing. The party ends when borrowers are no longer able to service debt. That happened in 1929 and it is happening now.

In the 1920s, had banks not lent more than was on deposit there would not have been so many bank failures and bank runs. Look at what the solution "accomplished". By guaranteeing deposits, money has flowed to banks offering the highest rates on savings accounts and CDs.

This in turn sponsored insane activity and lending for massively overbuilt condo towers in Florida, California, Las Vegas and other places. Money continues to flow into banks that are going to go under.

Thus, the FDIC which came into existence during the great depression as a "solution" has done nothing but make the problem worse. By preventing periodic local bank failures, FDIC interim stability guaranteed a bigger systemic failure down the road.

What Mish ignores is that allowing firms to release fraudulent financial statements isn't a free market at all. The SEC doesn't enforce current regulations, so he is right that more regulation is a joke.

VK, I have no doubt that you could enlist a whole army of economists to parrot the party line. After all, the finance industry owns 100% of the economists that work directly for it, 100% of those that work for the government and probably 90% of those in academia.

At least once in a blue moon we do get an economist in a rare moment of candidness, such as Nouriel Roubini the other day with Charlie Rose:

And you don't have enough independent thinkers and scholars who are willing to speak the truth.

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/10/nouriel-roubini.html

But that really isn't the issue. The issue is whether deregulation was the chief culprit that led to the financial collapse that we are now seeing unfold. I say it is. You say it isn't. This is what Obama defined as one of those "fundamental" differences between him and McCain. And it is a fundamental difference between you and me.

Don't you find it just a little bit hypocritical that the free market fundamentalists, who for the past 35 years have had a privileged seat at the policy table and had their hands firmly on the levers of power--who were largely responsible for getting us into this mess--now want to rewrite history to exculpate themselves from any blame and at the same time make this outrageous claim that it is they who can now save us?

I believe in Austrian Economics (What Ron Paul espouses) . I am a member of Nouriels blog as well and follow his articles, I am a regular visitor and contributor to the Big Picture, Calculated Risk as well as Naked Capitalism.

I DON'T believe that Paulson and Bernanke can solve this problem, you can't solve debt by adding more debt. The FED distorts the Free Markets.

What you're missing as well as Roubini and co is that we wouldn't really need regulation if weren't for Central Banks determining the rate of money i.e. interest. Nearly all forms of Government Intervention backfire. The FDIC insurance encourages people to engage in risky practices knowing full that government will come to the rescue.

The central problem is Fractional Reserve banking, unsound currency not backed by gold and silver and the ponzi scheme that is fiat money and leverage. Have you even read the articles I pointed out? Or are you merely reading the block quotes? In a TRULY free market what is happening, would NEVER have happened. Roubini, CR, Barry Ritholz don't get to the heart of the problem - The monster that is slowly killing the real FREE markets, the FED and it's copy cat central banks around the world.

From this aspect, therefore, the whole of economics can be reduced to a single lesson, and that lesson can be reduced to a single sentence. The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.

The problem I see with people like Ron Paul is that they believe history began in 1929. It did not. Classical liberal economics was implemented, put to the test during the 18th and 19th centuries, and it proved as big a failure then as Communism did in the 20th century.

Why do we have to keep re-inventing the wheel?

Adam Smith, Ricardo, Malthus, Nassau Senior, J.B. Say, Bastiat and J.S. Mill all proclaimed the dogma of "laissez-faire," the free market as the regulator of supply and demand. And by the beginning of the 19th century this was the dominant economic phiosophy in Europe.

And its adherents did not then, as Ron Paul does not now, advocate that their economic prescriptions be applied inconsistently:

It is a mistke to suppose that its creators and proponents were hypocrites moved by the desire to justify their friends, the captians of industry, while callously disregarding the sufferings of the workers. The science disregarded equally the sufferings of the factory owner who failed when overproduction periodically caused a string of failures.

Jacques Barzun, From Dawn to Decadence

But this did nothing to make the theory workable in the real world, for your "TRULY free market" is something that only exists in the minds of the disciples of market fundamentalism.

Simonde de Sismondi was perhaps the first heretic among Smith's disciples. As Barzun goes on to explain:

He had visited England and had been struck by the misery resulting from industrial progress. Why did the seemingly beneficial production of goods by machinery bring on "poverty in the midst of plenty"? The answer was: free competition keeps wages low, free enterprise makes for overproduction, which leads to recurrent "crises"--shutdowns or failures entailing unemployment and starvation.

His detailed criticism of the new society includes the observation that it splits labor from capital and makes them enemies, with the power all on one side. The idea of their "bargaining" over wages is absurd. Tyrant and victim describes the relation, yet without cruel intent of the one or knowledge by the other of who his oppressor is...

Sismondi does not oppose machinery; he rejects the idea that the economic situation is the inevitable effect of a law of nature, as the orthodox then affirmed. He saw the evils as the result of social and legal arrangements that could be changed.

Sismondi was of course only the first of a multitude of critics of market fundamentalism, and by the end of the 19th century liberal economics was discarded into the trashbin of history, where it should have stayed. But unfortunately, and especially unfortunately for the United States, Milton Friedman and the Chicago school went and doug it back out in the 1960s. It didn't work back in the 18th and 19th centuries. It hasn't worked since the 1980s when it was implemented anew in the United States. It has never worked.

What is the object of human society? Is it to dazzle the eye with an immense production of useful things? Is it to cover the sea with ships and the earth with railways? Is it, finally, to give two or three individuals out of each 100,000 the power to dispose of wealth that would suffice to maintain in comfort those 100,000?

Sismondi, Studies in Political Economy (1818-36)

What is the object of human society? Is it to dazzle the eye with an immense production of useful things? Is it to cover ... the earth with railways?

Well ...

Alan :-)

Speaking of railways... how to build more when the ones we have are going bankrupt?

MTA may have to cut commuter service

The next potential victims of the nation's credit crunch: nearly 1.5 million people who ride buses and trains each weekday in Los Angeles County. Transit officials say riders could soon be facing serious service cuts...

"The potential is pretty horrendous across the industry," said James LaRusch, the chief counsel for the American Public Transportation Assn., a trade group for transit agencies.

"It's typically going to impact the largest transit agencies," he said, "because they were the ones that had the kind of assets necessary to get into these kind of deals."

LaRusch said about 30 of the largest transit agencies in the nation have some involvement in such deals...

Cheers

You will note that I have not strongly advocated fossil fuel buses. The most I have supported is small buses serving as collectors and limited electric trolley buses.

We are seeing the first steps of what I expected. Rising fuel costs and a strained economy are putting diesel buses in jeopardy. The failure is not with electrified trains but with diesel buses.

Alan

You need to read the full article.

Cheers

Yes, my fault !

They are talking about a complex method of selling depreciation expense (useless to a gov't entity) to private investors. Loophole as noted closed in 2003, but if the investors fall through (as AIG seems to be doing) then financial/cash flow problems ewsult. I vaguely remember that a lot of non-profit hospitals did the same thing.

Another failure mode for our overly complex system :-(

Best Hopes for reading before Commenting :-(

Alan

What you're missing as well as Roubini and co is that we wouldn't really need regulation if weren't for Central Banks determining the rate of money i.e. interest. Nearly all forms of Government Intervention backfire. The FDIC insurance encourages people to engage in risky practices knowing full that government will come to the rescue.

The central problem is Fractional Reserve banking, unsound currency not backed by gold and silver and the ponzi scheme that is fiat money and leverage.

But that is not what you said at the beginning. You just said "more regulation isn't the answer" when what you meant was "The system is untenable. We need zero regulation in the sense of no banks, no fractional reserve system."

Had you said that in the beginning, you'd have gotten different responses.

Cheers

Just what deregulation do you have in mind? Care to name examples? Merely saying deregulation caused the current economic problems offers us nothing but a "cocktail party remark."

You talking about which presidents and which congress? We have had Carter & Clinton as well as Regan & Bush. We have had Democratic congresses with Republican presidents and the exact opposite. Congress passes all laws. So please be specific; just which laws are you speaking about? Which congress passed them and which president signed them?

I also suggest you compare the size of federal regulations from 1975 to the most current date you can find. I believe you will find they have more than doubled.

puhkawn,

You are absolutely correct that the drive to deregulation has been bi-partisan.

As for as those most culpable, you might start with Phil Graham:

http://www.cnn.com/video/?/video/politics/2008/10/14/foreman.gramm.most....

Then, as noted above, there's Greenspan, who served under both Republican and Democratic presidents.

Barry Ritholtz over at The Big Picture has been writing on this subject almost daily for the past month or two, this I suppose being his latest post:

My beef is not political, its evidentiary: There are no facts shown, no regulatory historical record dissected, no comprehension of what actually occurred -- just how to duck resposibility.

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/10/smart-people-sa.html

...and over the past couple of months in numerous posts he has pretty much hammered together the "evidentiary" case he refers to and you are requesting.

And if you're really interested you can pick up a copy of Kevin Phillips's Bad Money and read the three chapters "Finance," "Bullnomics" and "Secutitization" where he lays out much more of the sordid history in all its inglorious detail.

I don't totally buy the Phil Graham bit.

See http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122428201410246019.html

And especially

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122428201410246019.html

There are many other articles, too.

Tell me, did Phil Graham deregulate the UK, France, Germany, Belgium, Switzerland, and Russia, too? Oh, lets not forget Japan and Singapore! How about Iceland?

By the way Phil's law let a commercial bank bail out an investment bank without any government money; something that would not have been allowed under the old laws.

I think cheap interest, goofy government regulations encouraging lousy loans,young naive stupid Wall Street types...Think anybody who lived through the S&L crises thought subprime loans should be 60-70% of their business and the real estate market would rise forever? I could go on, but I believe you get where I am coming from.

I believe that infact a LACK of free markets has been the real problem. Mish has answered this in full many times.

Mish does some interesting and intelligent analysis. His major flaw IMO is his ideological adherence to libertarianism. One simple measure of the hypocrisy this engenders is his shilling for gold on his site. It we are indeed entering a deflationary depression, gold is not the place to be. Look at how it has plummeted in price. Libertarianism is pure utopianism and nothing more.

His major flaw IMO is his ideological adherence to libertarianism.

If Mish suffers from adhering to a single point of view, he is not alone.

Adherence to any point of view to the exclusion of all others will always produce a blind spot. It's in the nature of points of views to show only a portion of the whole; to see as much of the whole as humanly possible requires using multiple views.

Of course people will say that they have looked through the other views — and then discarded them as "wrong" or "inadequate," leaving the remaining view (the one they currently hold) the "true" and "only correct" view. But in discarding the other views they have missed the point entirely: there is no one correct point of view.

P.S. Of course, this is just one point of view ;-).

aangel, I agree completely. I'm sure it would be possible to go to Russia and find an old-school communist who would insist that the only reason for the collapse of the USSR was that communism wasn't practiced in a pure enough form. Same is true of any 'pure' ideology.

Let's get practical. Lately I've become extremely averse to speaking in terms of 'solutions' to any social problems. Rather, I like to think in terms of 'strategies'. This seems to be more open-ended in how one reacts to unpredictable developments along the way, while a 'solution' seems to imply a set plan that must not be altered.

Indeed. I've just listened to a good BBC radio programme on lax regulation and how US lawyers are busy filing law suits against banks for using fancy financial instruments to puff up their value.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/console/b00dvwx9

Includes the thoughts of Prof. Roubini. Plenty of blame laid in London.

(note: the programme actually starts about a minute in)

BobE

Indeed. I've just listened to a good BBC radio programme on lax regulation and how US lawyers are busy filing law suits against banks for using fancy financial instruments to puff up their value.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/console/b00dvwx9

Excellent. Thanks for that. The programme was from last tuesday so it'll be overwritten by next tuesday by the next edition. MP3'it if you want to save it..

Ransu,

The File on 4 A Financial Timebomb podcast is downloadable at

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/podcasts/fileon4/

BobE

BobE,

Thanks for the link. Great stuff.

If you haven't already seen it, here's a video that shows Fuld and his some of the lavishness of his lifestyle:

http://www.cnn.com/video/?/video/business/2008/10/10/ac.10.most.wanted.f...

More wondrous workings of the "free market" http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081019/the_influence_game_housing.html

Just to clear up a bit of linguistic confusion, the economic concepts covered by the term "Neoliberal" would include Reaganomics.

I think one might characterize Sarah Palin's far right Repuglican economic viewpoint as Neoliberal.

E. Swanson

I've always reserved the term 'reactionary' for people like Reagan and Palin and their ilk.

About time the term "reactionary" got back into use for short-termists like the neo-cons. Reactionary doesn't just mean over-reacting. If it did, it deserves falling out of use.

No, reactionary is a blind or dogmatic man's substitute for prudent forward-looking "pro-active" planning using minimal buffer stocks and risk thresholds.

For example, when the oil price drops we need to use the opportunity to put enough of a floor under it that big cars and other energy irrationalities are not given a boost.

Isn't it time to bring North America into line with the rest of the world? Otherwise, we are relying on the Hummer crowd to save us from a new Depression. Burn, baby, burn.

Ms. Schwartz did of course get half the storty right, and that is the current problems facing the finance industry are balance sheet problems and not liquidity problems.

In this regard only the first shoe--subprime home loans--has dropped thus far.

The NY Times' lead editorial today talked of what may be the next shoe to drop--business and corporate loans.

The Bubble Keeps On Deflating

By now everyone knows that reckless and even predatory mortgage lending provoked the financial meltdown. But bad lending did not stop there. The easy money also fed a corporate buyout binge, with private equity firms borrowing huge sums to buy up public companies and pay themselves big dividends.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/19/opinion/19sun1.html?ref=opinion

There is $11 trillion in outstanding corporate and business debt laying in wait for us out there. This is actually slightly greater than outstanding mortgate debt:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1r-2.pdf

As the NY Times story explains, corporations and businesses, unlike homeowners, have been able to delay the day or rekoning:

So far relatively few companies have gone bust. But that is not necessarily a hopeful sign. Instead, loose lending has very likely allowed many troubled companies to postpone a day of reckoning — but not forever.

Under the lax terms of many buyout loans (deemed “covenant lite”), borrowers could delay payments, say, by issuing i.o.u.’s in lieu of payment or adding the interest to the loan balance rather than paying it.

And of course the second wave of residential morgage debt won't even begin to unwind until 2010, as this graph so effectively points out:

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2007/10/distressing_pic_1.html

Can we have her for sec. of treasury?I know shes...well aged...but I like her style...I bet she could do some damage to those snakes running this rip-off