Undoubtedly you are correct that decreased buying of food by restaurants has contributed somewhat to the decrease in demand for certain foods, but it hasn't had a major impact on the prices of wheat or corn or soybeans. Why not? Because people have not cut back on eating: Rather what they have cut back is their spending on food by eating less frequently at restaurants. I like eating at some restaurants and I hate waiting in line for a table. A couple of years ago, waiting lines were common. I haven't had to wait for a table for the past year and a half.

I have talked to one TOD reader who sells high-end lettuces to restaurants. He said he has decided to discontinue this, because there is less demand for this kind of thing. I presume he will switch to growing something that grocery stores would be likely to sell.