DrumBeat: October 21, 2008
Posted by Leanan on October 21, 2008 - 9:39am
As Oil Prices Drop, OPEC Ponders Tough Solutions
At the beginning of the year, OPEC producers felt confident that strong economic growth and tight supplies would keep oil prices high. When oil crossed the $100-a-barrel threshold in February, the cartel’s president blamed speculators and said there was not much OPEC could do.But now, panic is gripping producers as prices drop. They are down by half since July, and the speed of the decline has stunned oil-rich governments that have become dependent on high prices.
As the global economy continues to weaken, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries faces its toughest test in years.
The problem for the oil exporters, who meet for an emergency session in Vienna on Friday, is to stop the price drop at a time when oil consumption is collapsing, particularly in industrialized countries. Even China, long the biggest engine of growth for oil demand, seems to be cooling markedly.
Russia to stay independent of OPEC
YEREVAN — Russia will stick to constructive dialogue with OPEC but keep its policies independent, its energy minister said on Tuesday after the cartel called on producers like Russia to join production cuts.
Alternative Energy Suddenly Faces Headwinds
HOUSTON — For all the support that the presidential candidates are expressing for renewable energy, alternative energies like wind and solar are facing big new challenges because of the credit freeze and the plunge in oil and natural gas prices.Shares of alternative energy companies have fallen even more sharply than the rest of the stock market in recent months. The struggles of financial institutions are raising fears that investment capital for big renewable energy projects is likely to get tighter.
Russian shares rise, traders suspect govt support
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian shares gained for a second day on Tuesday, led by state-owned companies such as Gazprom as traders said government money was probably already supporting the market.
Saudis resurrect a rival for Hezbollah
DAMASCUS - Word is coming out of south Lebanon that Saudi money under United States urging is being pumped into the Shi'ite community - in vain - to create a bloc among Lebanese Shi'ites against Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Biofuels to follow coal into liquid market - E.ON
PRAGUE (Reuters) - Biofuels will follow coal and eventually mature into a liquid market with risk management tools as its consumption rises, a senior E.ON Trading official said on Monday."Many people accept coal is in many ways following the oil markets. I remember in the 1980s as an oil trader, people saying 'what are all these banks doing here? They don't even know why sweet crude is called sweet', but they soon saw the banks brought liquidity and developed the market," said Edward Sigar, E.ON Trading Director for Coal, Biofuels and Freight.
U.S. solar boom to include manufacturing, too
SAN DIEGO — The United States is poised to become the world's largest user of solar power in the next decade, experts say, thanks in part to Silicon Valley innovation and the country's vast land area and amount of sunshine.And that title will bring an unexpected benefit: Manufacturing jobs arriving in the United States rather than being shipped overseas. Solar companies have determined that it makes economic sense to manufacture close to your market, because among other factors it reduces shipping costs.
European auto woes latest hit to U.S. suppliers
DETROIT (Reuters) - An abrupt downturn in European auto demand represents the latest hit to U.S. auto suppliers, already struggling with the fallout from a U.S. auto market that has plunged to 15-year lows and could drop further.
Kerkorian pulling out of Ford, taking huge loss
NEW YORK - Kirk Kerkorian’s investment firm said Tuesday it sold 7.3 million of its shares in Ford Motor Co. and plans to further cut what is now a 6.1 percent stake, for a potential loss of more than half a billion dollars on the investment....Kerkorian has tried to leave his mark on the Detroit-based automakers over the past decade. But Tracinda said that in light of current economic conditions it now sees “unique value” in other industries such as gambling, hotels, and oil and gas, so it’s moving its resources.
Taking grandma's keys is a tough decision
My dad passed away last year and he drove my mom everywhere. I finally talked my office into letting me telecommute and I moved home to help my mom (she is 77). She rarely drives except to the beauty shop and I keep an eye on how well she does. I usually take her everywhere she wants to go, but if I could not be here then she would be forced to drive. She lives in such a rural area that there is no public transportation of any kind. What limited transportation there is, it is designated for low-income seniors and she doesn't qualify.Somehow we need to address the problem of elderly people who live in rural areas but still need to get to appointments, get groceries, and go other places. If you don't live in such an area, it is hard to imagine being isolated with no alternative method of transportation.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices fell Tuesday, briefly sliding below the $70-a-barrel mark, as talk of falling demand continues to weigh on the markets.U.S. crude for November delivery fell $4.20 to $70.05 a barrel, after dipping as low as $69.77.
It was the expiration day for the November contract, often a signal for volatile trading. The December contract, which becomes active Wednesday, fell $3.76 to $70.63.
Traders awaited the Energy Department's weekly inventory report, due Wednesday, that was expected to show a buildup in crude and gasoline stocks, according to analysts polled by energy research firm Platts. Part of the reason for the expected inventory increase is the decline in demand, induced in part by the high prices of the past summer and the weakened economy.
"We're going to go from 2 cars in the garage to 1 car and a bus pass," said James Cordier, founder of online commodities brokerage OptionSellers.com in Florida.
Peak oil and the current economic opportunity
In the Twentieth Century we finally figured out how to create a system to maximize the exploitation of cheap resources, through loosely-regulated multi-national corporations. Unfortunately, we perfected the system just as the cheap resources were disappearing. We do not have a model for how to optimize the use of scarce resources in a non-growing economy. The current crisis creates the opportunity and the incentives to begin addressing that problem.
Russia must use FX reserves cautiously-Kudrin
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia must be cautious in using its foreign exchange reserves, which have already fallen by a tenth in the last few months, and the emphasis should be put on supporting the rouble, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said on Tuesday. The reserves, the world's third largest, are now at $530.6 billion, down $66.9 billion since early August. Credit rating agencies have said Russia's reserves are a key factor in its investment grade rating.The call on the cash pile is rising because Russia has to support its currency, fund high social spending and finance a $210 billion financial system rescue plan, a tough task as oil prices are tumbling.
Iran gas should be option for Nabucco: OMV
VIENNA (Reuters) - The European Union-backed Nabucco gas pipeline should not exclude Iran as a long-term supplier, lead consortium member OMV said on Tuesday.The EU has made the 7.9 billion euro ($10.46 billion) pipeline a cornerstone of its policy to ease its dependence on Russian gas but has been reluctant to list Iran among major potential suppliers for political reasons and because of opposition from the United States.
Massive Shtokman Gas Field Development Set at $800MM
Shtokman Development AG, the operator of the giant Shtokman gas field in the Barents Sea, has approved an $800 million budget for 2008 and 2009, the controlling shareholder OAO Gazprom said Monday.Gazprom holds 51% of the Shtokman Development, while France's Total SA and Norway's StatoilHydro have 25% and 24% stakes respectively.
India: Thermal plants face coal shortage
More than 60 per cent of India’s coal-based power plants are running with less than a week’s consumption of coal, threatening to affect power availability at a time when India’s peak deficit is hovering at around 15 per cent.
Alaska, Exxon Mobil work to resolve lease dispute
JUNEAU, Alaska - Exxon Mobil Corp. and Alaska officials are trying to settle a complex lawsuit over a North Slope natural gas field deemed essential to a successful 1,170-mile pipeline project.
Hundreds face Saudi terror trials
(CNN) -- Saudi Arabia has announced that nearly 1,000 suspects accused of having ties to al Qaeda will soon be tried for carrying out dozens of "acts of war" against the Arab kingdom, according to Saudi media reports on Tuesday.
Richard Heinberg: The Green New Deal
Conversations at the Bioneers conference last weekend (and by e-mail for many days now) have been dominated by a single theme: There is immediate need for a coherent policy with which the new US administration can deal with both the financial crash and the energy transition. Instead of propping up failing financial institutions, the new president must inject investment into the real economy by supporting wide-ranging but tightly coordinated projects to create far more renewable energy generation capacity, build railroads and public transport facilities, insulate millions of homes while providing alternative heat sources, and re-configure the national food system to dramatically reduce and soon eliminate the need for fossil fuels.Clearly the next administration will have to do something dramatic to stop the hemorrhaging of the economy. Why a Green New Deal and not some other kind of stimulus package? Is this just the demand of a single constituency, one that will have to be weighed against and balanced with the needs of business, national defense, the struggling middle class, and of course, the bankers?
Rolls-Royce brings propeller engines back in vogue
It evokes images of the vintage days of aviation, when flying around the world was a luxury few could afford. But propeller-driven aircraft, inspired by the iconic Spirit of St Louis, could make a return thanks to innovative fuel-saving designs.The Guardian has learned that Rolls-Royce recently cleared a major hurdle in testing its new design for a propeller-driven engine, involving a double rotor and new blade shape. Engineers have called Rolls-Royce's design a "tremendously significant" step forward.
Oregon farmers are loving biosolids
OREGON CITY -- Spraying recycled human waste on farmland once sounded like a bad idea to Howard DeLano.Now the cattle rancher east of Oregon City is among a growing number of Oregon farmers who can't get enough of the black slop. He says the natural fertilizer improves soil quality, reduces erosion and, most of all, saves him about $4,000 a year.
State regulations forbid using treated sewage on crops intended for human consumption. DeLano uses it to fertilize hay.
State warns about firewood sales
Buyers should also be aware of some of the other ways con artists rob consumers by selling “short” cords of wood, or ones containing less than the requisite amount. For example, they may unload the wood after dark when it is hard to assess the size of the delivery, and then demand immediate cash payment. Or they might unload when the residents are not at home, and come back after dark for payment. In a three or four-cord order, they will often deliver a full cord and stack it neatly, then demand payment for the full order before delivering the remaining load. When the rest of the order comes, it is left in a pile rather than neatly stacked so it is difficult to determine how much wood has actually been delivered.
Don't kill the planet in the name of saving the economy: The collision of the credit crunch and the climate crunch could be a boon
We are living through two great meltdowns – the credit crunch, and the climate crunch. The heating of the planet is now happening so fast it's hard to pluck a single event to fix on, but here's one. By the summer of 2013, the Arctic will be free of ice. How big an event it this?The Wall Street Crash hadn't happened for 80 years. The Arctic Crash hasn't happened for three million years: that's the last time there was watery emptiness at the top of the world. The Arctic is often described as the canary in the coal mine. As one Arctic researcher put it to me this week: the canary is dead. It's time to clear the mine, and run.
Lawsuit against Canada over Kyoto accord dismissed
VANCOUVER, British Columbia (Reuters) – Environmentalists have lost a legal challenge to force the Canadian government to abide by the Kyoto Protocol on climate change, which Canada signed but has refused to implement.The Federal Court on Monday dismissed a lawsuit filed by Friends of the Earth Canada that alleged the government broke the law by missing deadlines for implementing the treaty to cut emissions of greenhouse gases blamed for global warming.
Richard Heinberg: Whither Oil Prices
The game has changed. As I wrote here, “When the world finally begins to recover from its financial turmoil (and this could take a few years), and oil demand picks back up again, the economy will bump up against oil supply constraints and petroleum prices will skyrocket, undermining the economic recovery.” Lack of investment in new production projects, plus ongoing depletion and rising decline rates, probably ensure that we’ve now seen the all-time peak. It was in July 2008. Mark your calendars. That month was probably also, as I wrote here, the end of aggregate world economic growth as it has thus far been defined.Whither oil prices? Don’t expect a sustained rally for a while. It will be months before the full impact of the financial detonation is known, and that impact could include a substantial, years-long destruction of demand for oil.
Diesel Fuel Rationing in Western Canada: Who Would Have Thought It Possible
TORONTO, ONTARIO - (Marketwire) - Who would ever have thought that in oil-rich Western Canada we would see diesel fuel being rationed? That's exactly the scenario taking place in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba where a severe shortage of truck diesel fuel was playing havoc with truckers throughout the region. Carriers were seeing their fuel supplies rationed by as much as 10% to 50%. The card-lock privileges for all new accounts were suspended by at least one oil company and the hours that card-lock service was being made available to existing customers were being restricted. We were being told that things would not be returning to normal for at least several weeks, if not for the rest of October and November.Given the current economic fragility, this is something Canada can ill-afford. The trucking industry is being put in the unenviable and untenable position of deciding which of its customers will be guaranteed service and which will not.
Downturn flattens transportation companies
Near record-high numbers of trucking companies have been crushed in a downturn that’s stretched to nearly two years, and many expect more failures. The situation became more desperate, despite a respite in fuel prices, when the financial markets crashed in recent weeks and credit grew scarcer.
"I bought 800 gallons," Stillwater's Dave Ryan said. "This is the first year in 18 years that I'm going to lose. Most times I come out ahead."Ryan said his main consideration was simply having enough fuel to get through the winter. This summer, no one could have dreamed how far prices would drop. He just didn't want to be victimized by a possible fuel shortage crisis.
"That's the bottom line," he said. "Price was irrelevant at the time."
The Perfect Storm for Agriculture
The island of agriculture, particularly the grain sector, has been oblivious to the economic downdraft of the general economy until recently. Is the perfect storm brewing? What are the potential ingredients?• First, the new presidential administration decides to lower tariffs and subsidies on alternative energy, reducing demand for grain.
Pemex Output Falls 14% on Cantarell, Hurricane Ike
(Bloomberg) -- Petroleos Mexicanos, the state-owned oil company, said monthly crude output fell to the lowest since November 1995 on decreased demand from U.S. refiners and as its largest field declined.Production fell to 2.722 million barrels a day in September, a decline of 14 percent from a year ago, Mexico City- based Pemex, as the company is known, said today on its Web site. Pemex extracted 2.555 million barrels a day in November 1995.
Mexico: Energy Modernization Hits a Roadblock
Energy reform plans have hit a new obstacle in Mexico. The country’s failure to liberalize the industry that provides some 40 percent of its government budget could force a fiscal crisis as production declines and challenges abound.
A proposal to solve America's problems
We can start by selling all the states we acquired from Mexico back to Mexico for $6 trillion and convincing Mexico it's a bargain at half the price.That would be a good deal for us, as we just up and annexed Texas without paying anything. Following the Mexican-American War, the Treaty of Guadalupe-Hidalgo in 1848 gave the United States control of Texas (as far as Texas can be controlled) and established the Rio Grande as the border between Texas and Mexico. The ensuing Mexican Cession gave the United States California, Utah, Nevada, parts of Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico and Wyoming. For approximately two-thirds of its territory, 500,000 square miles, Mexico received $15 million and we agreed to assume $3.5 million of Mexican debt. It was not the best deal Mexico ever made.
Letting Mexico buy back those Western states would go a long way toward solving our energy crisis, too, as Mexico could pay us in part with oil. It would help solve the immigration crisis, as well, as all the Mexicans in those states could stay where they are without worrying about work permits and naturalization.
Ethiopia to experience another round of power rationing
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia -The Ethiopian electric and power corporation (EEPCO) has announced that the country will face power additional shortages in the current Ethiopian year as well. Ethiopia’s new year starts on September 11, 2008.
Pakistan: Mob vents frustration over power outages
LAHORE: Around 100 protesters attacked the Madina Colony Electric Supply Company (LESCO) Sub-Division Office (SDO) on Monday, setting the office record, furniture and computers on fire.
Nuclear power: Should Vietnam build 4 reactors at once?
Scientists have been debating about whether to build one reactor in the immediate future or multiple reactors at the same time.
The word 'rival' comes from the Latin 'rivalis' meaning 'some one sharing a river'. A water war between two Sumerian city states Lagashand Umma 4500 years ago is recorded on a stone carving showing vultures flying off with the heads of the impoverished and defeated Umma people. Only history itself can convince one of such a truth. This extremely worrying precedent is being re-run by India today by unleashing water damage; first inundating Pakistan with too much water and then starving it by withholding it at a critical time.
Volkswagen is putting its economic eggs in a diesel basket -clean diesel.
Ben Bova: An Energy Fix Written in the Stars
Solar energy is a favorite of environmentalists, but it works only when the sun is shining. But that's the trick. There is a place where the sun never sets, and a way to use solar energy for power generation 24 hours a day, 365 days a year: Put the solar cells in space, in high orbits where they'd be in sunshine all the time.You do it with the solar power satellite (SPS), a concept invented by Peter Glaser in 1968. The idea is simple: You build large assemblages of solar cells in space, where they convert sunlight into electricity and beam it to receiving stations on the ground.
Hard times have some flirting with survivalism: Economic angst has Americans stockpiling 'beans, bullets and Band-Aids’
SEATTLE - Atash Hagmahani is not waiting for the stock market to recover. The former high-tech professional turned urban survivalist has already moved his money into safer investments: Rice and beans, for starters.“I hoard food,” says Hagmahani, 44, estimating that he has enough to last his family a year or two. “I’m not ashamed to admit it.”
“People keep asking when this (economic crisis) is going to clear up,” says Hagmahani, who agreed to be interviewed on the condition that he be identified only by the pseudonym he uses for his survivalist blog, or by his first name, Rob.
The answer, he predicts, is that the country is entering what he calls a “Greater Depression.” “Maybe they jolly well better get used to the change in lifestyle.”
Hagmahani is not alone in concluding that desperate times call for serious preparations.
Commodity Prices May Decline `Sharply', NAB Says
(Bloomberg) -- National Australia Bank Ltd., the nation's biggest by assets, said commodity prices may decline ``sharply'' amid expectations global economic conditions will continue to deteriorate.``Global commodity prices are already falling and their elevated starting levels shows the potential for them to fall sharply and still be high by historical standards,'' the Melbourne-based company said today in a statement. The bank, the largest lender to Australian farmers, today reported full-year profit dropped 11 percent.
Tupi profitable even with lower oil prices - Galp
LISBON (Reuters) - Oil recovery from the giant Tupi field in Brazil's Santos Basin will be profitable even if crude prices drop substantially from their current levels, Manuel Ferreira de Oliveira, CEO of Galp, said on Tuesday.The Portuguese oil and fuel company has a 10 percent stake in the consortium exploring the subsalt Tupi reserve. The group is led by Brazilian state-owned oil company Petrobras and also includes British gas producer BG Group Plc.
"Tupi is a gigantic reserve which is profitable at substantially lower oil prices than the current ones," Ferreira de Oliveira told reporters during an energy conference.
PetroChina to increase investment in oil, gas business despite financial crisis
BEIJING (Xinhua) -- PetroChina Company Limited will increase its investment in its oil and gas business from 60 to 70 percent in 2009, said company chairman Jiang Jiemin on Tuesday.PetroChina's losses during the global financial crisis are "limited and under control", Jiang told reporters after a shareholders meeting. He said it's because the company has focused the majority of its business on oil and gas production and exploration in the past few years.
China Shipping Profit Rises 28% on Oil-Tanker Rates
(Bloomberg) -- China Shipping Development Co., the nation's largest oil carrier, said third-quarter profit rose 28 percent, lifted by the country's rising imports of crude.Net income climbed to 1.54 billion yuan ($225 million), or 0.45 yuan a share, from 1.21 billion yuan, or 0.36 yuan, a year earlier, the Shanghai-based company said in a statement to the city's stock exchange today, citing domestic accounting standards. Sales rose to 5 billion yuan from 3.2 billion yuan.
Kazakhstan Is `Ready to Swap' Caspian Oil Rights With Iran
(Bloomberg) -- Kazakhstan is ready to exchange exploration rights it holds for oil and gas assets in the Caspian Sea with Iran to gain access to reserves in the Persian Gulf, Prime Minister Karim Masimov said.``In general we are ready to swap assets with Iran, but there is no particular deal under way,'' Masimov said in an interview in the capital Astana on Oct. 17.
Sempra Mexico Termoelectrica natgas unit shut
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Sempra Energy's 625-megawatt Termoelectrica de Mexicali natural gas-fired power station in Mexico shut by Monday afternoon for unplanned reasons, the California Independent System Operator said in a report.The Termoelectrica de Mexicali combined-cycle station, which entered service in 2003, is located near Mexicali in Baja California, about 115 miles east of San Diego. It supplies the U.S. power market.
Centrica Urges U.K. Grid Upgrade to Meet Green Target
(Bloomberg) -- Centrica Plc, the U.K.'s biggest energy supplier, and the British unit of Iberdrola SA said the country must upgrade aging electricity infrastructure to achieve a 2020 renewables target.``The grid is a problem,'' Sue Wheeler, head of new energy at Centrica, told reporters today at the annual British Wind Energy Association conference in London. ``The targets are challenging but achievable'' if grid connections receive sufficient investment, she said.
3 Oil-Rich Countries Face a Reckoning
CARACAS, Venezuela — As the price of oil roared to ever higher levels in recent years, the leaders of Venezuela, Iran and Russia muscled their way onto the world stage, using checkbook diplomacy and, on occasion, intimidation.Now, plummeting oil prices are raising questions about whether the countries can sustain their spending — and their bids to challenge United States hegemony.
... Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a consulting firm in Cambridge, Mass., said oil states were facing something of a reckoning. Originally, he said, they saw the economic crisis as a problem mainly for the United States — but then oil prices went into free fall.
“Now, the producers are experiencing a reverse oil shock,” Mr. Yergin said. “As revenue went up, government spending went up and expectations of a continuing windfall led to greater and greater ambitions. Now they are finding how integrated they are into this globalized world.”
Oil above US$74 as OPEC eyes production cut
Oil prices were hovering above US$74 a barrel Tuesday as investors expected OPEC to try to halt a three-month slide in prices by cutting production quotas at least 1 million barrels a day.At the same time, gains by the U.S. dollar against the euro were putting the brakes on any gains in oil prices.
"The general trend is still of uncertainty," said analyst Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix in Switzerland.
Oil price to fall as Saudi Arabia resists cut: report
MILAN (Reuters) - The price of oil will probably keep falling as long as Saudi Arabia resists pressure from other OPEC member states to cut production, according to the country's former oil minister.Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani told Italian daily Corriere della Sera in an interview published on Tuesday member states that were only interested in keeping the price high had already cut production.
"They are already under their quota, so a cut (that would make a difference to the price) must above all come from Saudi Arabia," he said.
Asked if Iran and Venezuela were among those pushing for a cut, he said: "Also Libya, Algeria and even Nigeria."
Iran wants OPEC cut of at least 2mln bpd
TEHRAN (AFP) – Iran's oil minister said on Tuesday that Tehran believes OPEC should cut production by between two million and 2.5 million barrels a day, and that prices could go higher than 150 dollars a barrel."The market should find a stable condition, and given the eight to 10 percent decrease in demand and also given the oil stockpile I think a decrease of between two and 2.5 million barrels a day can bring a stable status to the market," Gholam Hossein Nozari said at a press conference in Tehran.
OPEC treads carefully on output cut
For OPEC, the speed of the descent revives bad memories of the 1998 price collapse when oil fell to less than $10 a barrel."They need to cut production fast, but they're probably not going to be able to cut it as fast as world growth is slowing," said Michael Lewis of Deutsche Bank.
He predicted Friday's meeting in Vienna could reduce output by between one and 1.5 million bpd from an agreed ceiling of 28.8 million bpd and that would just be the start.
OPEC exports down 900,000 bpd to October 5 - LMIU
LONDON, Oct 21 (Reuters) - OPEC seaborne exports, excluding Ecuador, fell 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the four weeks to October 5 with Gulf producers accounting for most of the shrinkage, Lloyd's Marine Intelligence Unit said on Tuesday.The London-based consultancy that tracks oil tanker shipments from 12 OPEC producers, including Iraq, said exports fell to 22.766 million bpd, down from 23.666 million bpd in the four weeks previous to September 7.
Excerpt: 'Tar Sands', by Andrew Nikiforuk
Declaration of a Political EmergencyThe world's oil party is coming to a dramatic close, and Canada has adopted a new geodestiny: providing the United States with bitumen, a low-quality, high-cost substitute.
Northern Alberta's bituminous sands, a national treasure, are the globe's last great remaining oil field. This strategic boreal resource has attracted nearly 60 per cent of all global oil investments. Every major multinational and nationally owned oil company has staked a claim in the tar sands.
Neither Canada nor Alberta has a rational plan for the tar sands other than full-scale liquidation. Although the tar sands could fund Canada's transition to a low-carbon economy, government has surrendered the fate of the resource to irrational global demands. At forecast rates of production, the richest deposits of bitumen will be exhausted in forty years.
Engineers warn of imminent oil shock
Engineers are warning politicians that the lull in oil prices will be short-lived, and New Zealand is headed for sustained job losses unless it boosts energy efficiency efforts.Senior North Shore City transport strategist Archer Davis, speaking on behalf of Engineers for Social Responsibility, said a conservative estimate of a 4 per cent annual decline in oil supply raises the prospect of a 12 per cent contraction of New Zealand's economy over 15 years.
Pickens' natural gas idea picking up steam
What will power your car a decade from now? Billionaire T. Boone Pickens is betting big that it will be compressed natural gas.The former oil tycoon has put $58 million into touting his "Pickens Plan" in TV ads, YouTube videos, town hall meetings and media interviews to get people talking about boosting wind power for electricity and using the nation's natural gas supply for the next auto fuel.
The publicity is working. After years of a relatively low profile in the alternative fuel discussion, compressed natural gas or "CNG" vehicles are now at the forefront of a national debate.
Iran sees consensus to set up “gas OPEC”
TEHRAN — Iran's oil minister said on Tuesday there was a consensus to set up a “gas OPEC,” speaking after tripartite talks with his Qatari counterpart and the head of Russia's Gazprom.“We have made major decisions,” Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari told a news conference. “There is a demand to form this gas OPEC and there is a consensus to set up gas OPEC.”
Russia, Iran and Qatar are ranked the first, second and third biggest holders of natural gas reserves in the world.
Palin backs shipping Alaskan LNG to Japan
On the campaign trail, Sarah Palin says repeatedly that America must tap its own natural gas and oil reserves to become energy-independent.But the Alaska governor and GOP vice presidential candidate has pushed the federal government to allow a liquefied natural gas plant to continue exporting to Asia — the only such plant in the United States that sends the product overseas.
Special Euromoney Coverage: Lessons learned from Egypt’s energy leaders
Salah Hafez of NPC advises investment in economically sound sectors, which will remain vital despite the current global economic slowdown."People will continue eating, going out and using fuel," he argues.
He sees the current slump in oil prices as temporary. Advocating the peak oil theory, he points out that seeing no real energy alternatives in the near future, rising demand for oil in face of dwindling reserves will drive prices up again.
Gas: NAPE calls for aggressive exploration activities
IN order for Nigeria to increase its present gas reserves from 182 Trillion cubic Feet (TcF) to 600tcf and become the fourth largest gas reserve in the world there has to be an intense and aggressive exploration for gas as there is for oil at present.
Gunmen seize Nigerian oil worker's children in delta
PORT HARCOURT, Nigeria (Reuters) - Gunmen have kidnapped two children of a Nigerian oil worker in the Niger Delta oil city of Port Harcourt, police said on Tuesday.The children were being driven to school when they were abducted in the Abuloma area of the city and taken to an unknown location, said Rita Abbey, police spokeswoman for Rivers state, of which Port Harcourt is the capital.
"They were kidnapped this morning by gunmen who were in a black jeep. They are a boy and a girl aged between 7 and 9, children of a Nigerian Shell worker," Abbey said.
China says kidnappings won't affect Sudan policy
BEIJING: China's Foreign Ministry said Tuesday that Beijing's close economic ties with Sudan wouldn't be affected by last week's kidnappings of nine Chinese oil workers in the country's southwest.Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said Chinese authorities are working to help free the captives, who were seized Saturday by unknown assailants in Kordofan province. Sudan's government says they were abducted by a rebel group that has demanded a greater share for locals of the region's oil wealth.
UK: Economy, shopping styles affect small businesses
When people choose not to pay the slightly higher prices at the local store, and make the 130 mile round trip to North Platte, Valentine or Broken Bow to do their shopping, it makes cash flow difficult for Ewoldt."Keeping the cash flowing is difficult," he said. "With Affiliated [Foods] we're supposed to buy $9,000/week in order not to have to pay extra fees."
Hawaii outlines renewable energy goals
HONOLULU – Hawaii's largest utility has signed on to a plan to move the state away from dependence on fossil fuels for electricity and ground transportation.The goal is to create 70 percent of Hawaii's energy use from clean energy sources by 2030. Currently, the state gets about 10 percent of its energy from renewable sources.
Under the latest agreement, Hawaiian Electric Co. commits to not build any new coal plants, integrate up to 1,100 megawatts of renewable energy into the power grid and convert existing fossil fuel generators to biofuels using locally grown crops.
Clean coal for cars has a dirty side
If the United States tried to achieve independence from foreign oil by making gasoline from vast reserves of domestic coal, the country would probably end up increasing its carbon emissions, a new study concludes.
Catalytic converter developer honored for car contribution
"The catalytic converter has had a profound impact on our environment," says Jim Kliesch, senior engineer for the Union of Concerned Scientists. Advances in the catalytic converter, which rolled out on GM's 1975 model-year cars, and computer-controlled fuel injection technology have all but eliminated tailpipe emissions, he says.Today, that team of engineers will be honored for the first time for developing the catalytic converter, receiving the Great Moments in Engineering Award from information technology group GlobalSpec at a dinner in Detroit.
UK's Brown says downturn will not affect green effort
LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said on Tuesday the global economic downturn would not deflect the UK government from efforts to reduce Britain's carbon emissions and combat global warming.
Do we need to go nuclear to stay green?
It's the billion-dollar question. Will nuclear energy save the world from global warming? Nuclear power plants produce virtually zero carbon emissions throughout their lifecycle, but they are costly to build and environmentalists claim the money would be better spent on building renewable resources.
Is the Sun Setting on Solar Power in Spain?
This month Spain slashed the maximum capacity of solar farms that can claim subsidies from 1,200 MW to just 500 MW. Installed PV capacity has already tripled to 1,500 MW in under a year, should double again by 2010 to 3,000 MW, and more than triple to 10,000 MW by 2020. Spain also cut PV feed-in tariffs by about a third to around 33 eurocents per kilowatt hour. Solar-thermal executives fear the same fate within 24 months as new plants add solar power.
Study: California energy efficiency pays off
SAN FRANCISCO - California has saved about $56 billion in electricity costs and created 1.5 million jobs over 35 years by using energy more efficiently than other states, according to a new study.The report released Monday by an economist at the University of California at Berkeley found that state policies that boost energy efficiency aren't just good for the environment, they're also good for the economy.
BBVA says to cut employee CO2 emissions 20 pct
MADRID (Reuters) - Spain's BBVA will spend 19 million euros ($25.17 million) to cut its CO2 emissions per employee by 20 percent by 2012, the chairman of the bank, Francisco Gonzalez, said on Tuesday.BBVA will introduce measures to persuade staff to cut trips by using video-conferencing, introduce energy-saving in their homes and use vehicles which burn less fossil fuel.
The plan could save the bank 1.5 million euros a year, the chairman of Spain's second largest bank said at a presentation in Madrid.
Climate change is driving increase in tiger attacks
The number of tiger attacks on people is growing in India's Sundarban islands as habitat loss and dwindling prey caused by climate change drives them to prowl into villages for food, conservation experts said.Wildlife experts say endangered tigers in the world's largest reserve are turning on humans because rising sea levels and coastal erosion are steadily shrinking the tigers' natural habitat.
Economic woes may give planet a breather
NICOSIA (Reuters) - A slowdown in the world economy may give the planet a breather from the excessively high carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions responsible for climate change, a Nobel Prize winning scientist said on Tuesday.Atmospheric scientist Paul J Crutzen, who has in the past floated the possibility of blitzing the stratosphere with sulphur particles to cool the earth, said clouds gathering over the world economy could ease the earth's environmental burden.
Climate change factors into conservationist buys
Climate change is prompting some conservation groups to broaden strategy in buying pristine lands, recognizing that some may be under water in 50 years or undergo other drastic changes.For the first time, land trusts and other conservationists are factoring in evidence that global warming is altering the migration of species, reconfiguring coastlines and transforming natural habitats.








GAIA Host Collective
What do you know, I'm an engineer by training as well. A new post that I wrote called "Why We Can't Pump Faster"
http://mobjectivist.blogspot.com/2008/10/why-we-cant-pump-faster.html
Excerpts from your post:
These are two representations of what the world oil production curve might look like, if we actually managed to pump harder. (The Gompertz curve is the rounder one, closer to the Hubbert curve we are used to).
You also fitted a Gompertz curve to phosphate production:
Click for larger images. Read the whole post for better understanding of that WebHubbleTelescope is saying.
Hello WHT,
Thxs for your hard work on phosphates. I don't know if this will help on any future analysis, but remember the guanos are activated phosphorus[P]--beneficiated by the birds and bats; thus equivalent to modern superphosphate from processed ores:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superphosphate
We are now reliant upon raw ores PLUS THE BENEFICIATION PROCESS. The key to this is Sulfur-->sulfuric acid-->phosphoric acid-->high potency, high NPK-ratio finished products.
Much more energy is now required than for guano. Lawes knew about this chem-process a long time ago, but couldn't find the energy to power a large scale operation--thus the ships had to sail around the world for guano, instead of the short hop to Morocco.
Thus, as sour crude and sour natgas depletes, IMO, it will have a great impact on I-NPK flowrates, with the greatest effect upon activated-P flowrates [as that is where most sulfur is directed].
Some people will say we will never run out of sulfur to mine. I counter with the USGS argument that mining raw sulfur is much more energy intensive plus environmentally destructive than refining it from FFs [56-page PDF Warning]:
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2002/of02-298/of02-298.pdf
-------------------
[Page 15] Recovered Sulfur
In the context of this report, recovered sulfur is defined as the elemental sulfur recovered for environmental reasons during the
processing of natural gas and petroleum refining. The U.S. Bureau of Mines first reported recovered sulfur production data for the
United States in 1938; prior to that time, unspecified quantities of sulfur were produced, especially during treatment of natural gas, but
disposed of as waste. Sulfur recovery has grown in importance over the years to become the leading source of sulfur in the United
States starting in 1982 and the only source of elemental sulfur with the closure of the last domestic sulfur mine in August 2000.
---------------------
As FFs deplete, I suspect the shrinking energy and sulfur will impact the P-flowrate, but I have no idea how to math extrapolate this out.
Hopefully, you can find time to give this a go....Thxs in advance.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Interesting... sulfur comes from natural gas as a byproduct of refining it. Does anyone else know of any other byproducts from refining oil/natural gas? (Helium comes to mind in this context, as it is a byproduct of drilling for oil/nat. gas)... When facing Peak Oil, are we also facing Peak Sulfur, Peak Helium, and Peak something else...?
Hello Geckolizard,
My earlier post just considered the I-NPK beneficiation energy required vs ready-to-apply O-NPK guanos. Now think about how much more transport energy is present day required:
Olden days**
Virtually minimal with free wind in sails; just the one-way return trip from a guano island back to the seaport, then inland to the final square foot topsoil dispersion.
Modern day**
Get sulfur moved from Athabasca oilsands, plus Potash[K] moved from Saskatchewan, plus raw ore phosphate[P] rock moved from Morocco, plus natgas Haber-Bosch ammonia[N] moved from Russia or Trinidad-->all four Elements then meet in Louisiana to be processed to the specific finished product [DAP, MAP, MOP, TSP, MIRACLE-GRO, VIGORO, etc].
Then, load the product on a truck, RR, river barge, or ship to then send to final destination for topsoil application. This is a simplified example, but it is easy to see how the total embedded transport energy over many, many miles can be huge.
Ok, now this gets more complicated, but I'll follow...
Consider Peak Oil: it's not necessarily how long that oil lasts, but the flow rate that counts...
So, less oil (and natural gas, because we're running into that wall too) means less energy...
And less energy means that the flow of things derived from energy (even if it has absolutely nothing to do with oil/gas) also is reduced.
Less N, P, K from around the world because the 'energy flow' (i.e. energy needed for transportation) is restricted by energy;
Less food because the 'energy flow' (i.e. energy needed to run tractors, water pumps, etc) is less;
Less water because the 'energy flow' (i.e. energy needed to pump wells from aquifers) is less;
Less synthetic fertilizer (I-NPK) because the 'energy flow' (i.e. energy needed to create the chemicals needed for fertilizers) is less...
I guess it is all about flows. If you have 3 million people living in a city, and only enough food to feed 1.5 million is flowing in, you have problems. If you have only enough heat or electricity to heat and provide for 1.5 million, you have problems. If you only have enough water for 1.5 million, again, problems.
Flows...
Yep,Yep,Yep--it's not the size of beerkeg, it's the size of the tap.
Imagine if every bottleneck beer's aperture was even smaller than this o
Yikes!
Bob,
I totally agree sulfur is hidden trap with phosphate production. (Well, one of many.) Florida makes around 30 million tons of calcium sulfate (or gypsum) every year. Yesterday, I watched dozens of tanker cars of sulfur of a train going into one of the phosphate plants near Mulberry, Florida. I could not help wondering how far around the world this sulfur came. (Hey, it gets boring waiting for a train to cross the road). What are we going to do when production drops and fuel oil becomes scarce?
Hello Mad_Man,
Thxs for responding. We need to do as Pres. Clinton suggests: close the landfills everywhere, then start recycling everything to slow the rate of entropy as much as we can.
some of the sulphur probably came from your own sour crude jay field in florida.
an abstract linked here: here:http://search.datapages.com/data/doi/10.1306/A1ADD881-0DFE-11D7-8641000102C1865D
From the ref, it looks like the easy sulfur extraction shows Gompertz-like behavior.

Well, it looks like the collapse of the world economy due to the banking crisis has been averted at least in the short-term. Does this prove that humans are smarter than yeast after all?
Its a bit early to say that. It is not going to collapse overnight.
Rome didn't collapse overnight (heck, it took a couple hundred years). The US needs a bit of time... Don't worry, it'll happen. We're spending more than we take in- both collectively as a nation (talking about America) and individually. This can't go on forever, and like the guy who maxes out 20 credit cards and has a resetting mortgage he can't afford and gets forclosed on, we too have a day of reckoning coming.
Maybe China will forclose on us... :)
The US will indeed "collapse overnight."
For the simple reason, as WebHubbleTelescope on October 21, 2008,
has given for why oil,phosphate, et al will "collapse overnight."
Everything has been done to max production(p), p being actual
money/dollar/energy saved. And it will run out. As it does,
the crash will be similar to the completely strung out junkie
deprived of his fix.
The US military is now faced with having "new owners", not
necessarily US, of it's money source.
The US Military must now take steps to insure that it's "owners"
are completely in step with the military's future plans.
Maybe that's why they were all meeting in Lake Placid this last weekend.
http://www.adirondackdailyenterprise.com/page/content.detail/id/503045.h...
...As I said before, it will happen, just not overnight. It will be a slow, long, drawn-out process...
Read up on Olduvai Theory.
Some of the dates after the millennium may be a few (5-10) years off, but this is the (likely) geometry of the crash.
With all due respect what is being missed is that the long drawn out
process has been going on since Nixon left the gold standard.
No accident that this was also the best financial situation
that middle America has ever been in.
Or that the process of impoverishing this same middle class
accelerated in 1985 when the US went bankrupt(didn't hear about that,
eh?).
We have been undergoing hyper inflation during this entire time
but most of the inflation was hidden in Special Purpose Vehicles-thought Enron invented those? Think again. Or that they'd been outlawed? the Fed just this AM became buyer of last resort
for the money market's commercial paper using just these SPV's.
From Jesse's Cafe Americain:
The SP 500 May be in a Cascading Waterfall Decline With a Bottom around 444.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
US equities as represented by the SP 500 are in a cascading waterfall decline that may not reach a genuine bottom until it reaches 640. If the US dollar starts falling with stocks and Treasuries we may see a capital flight that sets up a decline that may not bottom until the SP reaches 444, with high volatility and sharp rallies along the way. The rally from the final bottom will be tentative and slowly expansive with a modest slope.
Or the volume will drop to near zero, with the US gov't the sole buyer. Until the US gov't runs out of your money.
This crisis has been unraveling for over a year. The script has had periods of panic with months-long periods of relative calm that provide opportunities for CNBC to inform all that the 'time to buy is right around the corner'. Usually, there is a rally in stocks and interbank spreads decline a bit.
October is historically tough on the stock market.
The next weak links are HSBC, UBS, Citigroup, Goldman, Morgan Stanley Credit-Suisse and JP Morgan-Chase. There are several large regional banks such as Fifth Third Bancorp and Sovereign that have a large overhang of non-performing assets. The FDIC has over 150 banks on its troubled bank list. When businesses (whose accounts are too large to insure or who can find better deals by shopping between the quivering giants) decide to leave any particular bank en-masse, that is usually the end of the road.
Money funds have the same problem:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ajw94.nC0a5w&refer=us
Too many banks, not enough real money.
Listened to Mr. Bernanke on C-Span last night during a Senate hearing. There are some dumb Senators out there, folks! Bernanke sez the money supply isn't expanding. Hmmm ... nobody's borrowing. All that liquidity, all that risk ... for nothing.
I guess this makes the Fed the Borrower of Last Resort ... Eventually, the US economy will be the Fed buying and selling debt to itself. President Obama will intone; "The economy is fundamentally sound ... "
The beat goes on. Retailers will report dismal holiday sales. President Obama can't print money out of his ass, so his 'elation period' (honeymoon) will be short. If Chrysler or a big bank (here or abroad) goes bankrupt the markets will stagger again. Look at this chart, you will see that the market flucturates within a trading range:
http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/dow-long.html
The long-term upward trend has recently been broken. Since a bear market is in full force, stocks will fluctuate within a range with lower highs and lower lows. Since long-term cycles tend to run for long periods, even decades, this bear market will probably be with us for a long time.
Another problem area is countries. Countries with severe economic problems include the Baltic states, Bulgaria and Pakistan, which is on the verge of bankruptcy and default. The outcome here is uncertain, along with the fallout. Another mnilitary coup isn't out of the question. OPEC countries are being bitten by lower oil prices and higher inflation. Any of these trouble spots could spark panic in the markets.
The thing is: There are "Two" Variables. "Power" x "Efficiency" = Output.
"Buckyballs," "Phosphorescing" Solar Cells, Super Computers, Drought-Resistant Seeds: These multiply the existing, and future, energy, "exponentially."
now why didn't I think of all those things?
Super Computers! so simple, now we are saved! hooray!
simply mulitply the existing and future energy exponentially - such simple math, such elegant solutions - problems simply wash away!
or not
Why ya gotta be so Mean? :(
It was a program run on a "super-computer" that identified the formula for the "phosphorescing" solar chip.
It's programs on super-computers that are allowing scientists to decode genome, after genome at speeds that no one could have dreamed possible just a few years, ago.
Unless you're saying that the efficiency that we use our energy resources isn't important?
Super computer, ha...
Use a Playstation instead... Works great for protein folding...
http://folding.stanford.edu/English/FAQ-PS3
Or SETI @ home on your PC...
http://setiathome.berkeley.edu/
But, yes, these are very noble goals that computers can (and do) help out with... :)
because I get very very tired of seeing "skyhook" ideas - of COURSE technology will continue to amaze, but at the same time, human #'s will continue to expand - and the longer that goes on, the more likely an overshoot crash down the other side
some of the fastest computers ever built were used at Los Alamos labs to model full-scale nuclear war scenarios - with the end of the cold war, there wasn't much use for all that # crunching, so they found new uses - the one I've read about is modeling driving behavior for entire cities (it helps determine if new highways will help traffic congestion - turns out adding lanes and new highways often makes things worse funny enough - the program even determined LA should turn it's commuter lanes into regular - promptly ignored) - so all that fancy computing power to just continue business as usual....
and bigger faster computers aren't a free lunch - they don't create cheap, transportable and non-environmentaly destructive ENERGY and they don't solve the problems of too many people on this little mudball of ours - and really it's about energy and population
All the neat little gizmos in the world won't do much for us if we lack water, NPK, arrable land, pest controls, fuels for harvesting and transport, energy to keep perishable goods from spoiling etc. etc. - or if we are at war with nations over such things.
Have iPods and plasma tv's done anything to better the human condition?
Hell, for that matter has decoding the human geonome done anything for life expectancy in this country? CUBA has a lower infant mortality rate than Washington D.C. - what does that say about our techology? - probably not much, but it says a lot about how we distrubute and prioritize. And my argument against cornicopianism has always been "it is not that great technological feats are possible, it's not that there are not solutions, it is that we will not choose to make the correct decisions in time to avert catastrophe (at least for many people - maybe most)"
and efficency just doesn't seem to be happening on any scale that is going to help us much either...
Someone argued to me recently that the most important invention to the human race in the past few hundred years was birth control.
I'm not sure I agree with it, but it certainly is a marvelous development if you ask me! The only step beyond that which could save us is mandatory birth control.
A logical follow=up is that the most detrimental development was indoor plumbing.
You, sir, did Not grow up with "outdoor" plumbing.
No, actually, it isn't.
Anthropologist Marvin Harris is one who argued that the only technical development that actually benefited mankind long-term was birth control.
However, it turns out it's a little more complicated than that. People won't use birth control unless they can be reasonably sure their children will live, and sanitation plays a big role in that.
For most detrimental...I think Jared Diamond is probably right. It's agriculture.
One of my concerns is a post- peak world w/o birth control. I was listening to an NPR story about early first ladies and one who had 4 children, lost two, one of the surviving two died in child birth. As a woman and mom to daughters-- I hope that birth control remains available....
Efficiency <= 1 in all cases, so no, there's not an increasing multiplication ever, just a smaller decrease.
And it's not exponential, but it does apply at every use, transport or conversion point. Even applies as storage.
B-balls and computers consume energy.
We had drought resistant seeds back a hundred years ago. We eliminated them in favour of high-yield low tolerance varieties; the green revolution.
Phosphorescing solar cells sound appealing. How much will it cost to create enough to cover existing daytime power consumption in the USA? Of course, it's tricky to use electricity for transport, or to make fertiliser from.
Quite possible! While I think it will take a year or two, it could very easily happen as quickly as the Soviet Union collapsed. That took a little longer than "overnight" though the swiftness of the collapse was truly alarming. So just because Rome took over a hundred years to collapse does not make that any kind of rule.
Just look at how swiftly the banking system collapsed. Just a matter of a couple of months. The entire US financial system could very easily collapse in that length of time.
Ron Patterson
Next week the bond market collapses (29th, I believe). I read it in TOD, so it must be true.
Yes, we will!
Dear TODers, first of all, thanks for just being there! It is since a while that I am following with deep interest this blog. You give me the force that I need in a daily dosis to hang on to my project: Manufacturing of affordable residential heating systems that operate on a combination of thermo solar and pelletized biomass. (www.firepellets.com) I am stuck in the credit crunch same as many other renewable energy projects!
I am mostly concerned about the recent proportions of the exponential growth of or national debt. The destructive potential of exponential growth on a finite sphere is even more powerful than a nuclear device and we have only months, maybe just days left before reaching the "critical masses".
Before a major crash, catastrophe or quake there are vibrations and roarings and there is confusion: just have a look into the DJIA the few past weeks! Bailout-Ben's newly proposed stimulation utopia will extend the euphoria before hypoxia until after the elections, perhaps.
Averted? Oh come on, why do you think that?
There is definitely some improvement, but at high cost.
Not least: wear and tear on helicopters.
But they are doing their thing and the monetary base is expanding like never before.
Re: St Louis Adjusted Monetary BASE...
All your base are belong to us. You have no chance to survive make your time.
"Somebody set up us the bomb"- subliminal messaging, when read backwards: "Bomb the US, up-set somebody"
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS
(NYSE: TXN)
NEW Real-time: 16.40 Down 1.58 (8.79%)
But the Nasdaq is down only .4%. The inference being that Nasdaq
doesn't care if TI goes out of bizness?
That's not what Chairman Bernanke said. He must be lying.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T4AMZvQAbKw
Excuse me?
The Western gov'ts now own your banking system.
What you're seeing in the stock markets is overt intervention.
S&P fut down over 2% and now down .6%?
On what news in between. As I've said repeatedly the US is
the buyer of last resort of everything. The FedRes IS now a part of
the US Treasury. Note that vol yesterday was at Holiday level.
As I'm sure it is today and will be until the market is allowed to fall.
Disney wants an audit of LEH's fund movement in it's last days.
The elephants are fighting.
Here is a more detailed breakdown than the New Scientist article linked above by country of who is doing what in nuclear expansion:
http://www.physorg.com/news112357102.html
Italy will make 8-10 nuclear reactors
http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/calgarybusiness/story.html?id=6...
Correcting a 50 billion euro mistake
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NP_Nuclear_phase_out_a_50_billion_mist...
The long term aim, according to Scajola, is to 'rebalance the power generation in Italy'. By 2030 the Italian government would like to see nuclear power taking a 25% share in generation, with renewables on the same level and fossil fuels making up the remaining 50%.
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/indtalk.aspx
Russian and Chinese delegations added an intention to construct an 800 MWe demonstration fast breeder reactor to older plans to expand the Tianwan nuclear power plant. Two new VVER-1000 pressurized water reactor units operate at the plant in eastern China, and a framework to build two more was embellished by an instruction to draft a memorandum concerning their actual construction. Russia already operates one BN-600 fast breeder reactor for electricity production at Beloyarsk, while a BN-800 unit is under construction there. The 800 MWe unit for China is presumed to be similar to the second Beloyarsk reactor.
Kyrgyzstan Kara Balta since the start of 2008 has produced over 600 tonnes of uranium and plans to produce more than 2000 tonnes in 2009.
Fernandez May Seek Takeover of Argentina's Retirement Accounts
Wouldn't surprise me to see something like this in the future of the U.S. There's already been talk about forcing IRAs to convert to government bonds.
That's scary!
I only have IRAs because the government gives me a tax break on my self employment.
I guess it's true, he who makes the rules wins!
I would assume that the 'giant sucking sound' I hear is the withdrawal of these funds from Argentina to banks elsewhere by those smart and/or connected enough to get their money out before the Kirchner grab. :(
A big turnaround from the Republican push to 'privatize' Social Security.
I hope its not a repost.
"Indeed our researchers anticipate that, before next summer 2009, the US government will default and be prevented to pay back its creditors (holders of US Treasury Bonds, of Fanny May and Freddy Mac shares, etc.)."
http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-28-is-available!-Global-systemic-crisis-Alert-Summer-2009-The-US-government-defaults-on-its-debt_a2250.html
BMW
a very good read & fits a lot i have seen & thought. why next summer, some 30 or 10 yr. treasuries due? they mention fannie/freddie. here is the link.
http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-28-is-available!-Global-
"New solar cell material achieves almost 100% efficiency, could solve world-wide energy problems"
http://www.tgdaily.com/html_tmp/content-view-39807-113.html
Currently in molecular state only, but discoveries can happen by chance as they have in the past.
It's an interesting read, Sorry. There are some key phrases you might include from the article to keep it from sounding too glowy and uncritically accepted. Your disclaimer was OK, but the title line is deceptively glowy.
To me, this may have been the heart of the piece. While definitely a bit cornucopian, it helps show they are also backing up their theories and computations with actual test results. (Unlike many claims foisted in this kind of post)
A computer is merely a calculating machine. A saying about computers: "If you put garbage in, you will get garage out."
Not to say that a computer could not invent a 100% efficient solar cell. Where can I buy one of those computers?
Theoretically, efficiency is limited to about 80% for PV. We are about half way there so far.
Chris
80 - 100% efficiency? Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that only under zero load dumping everything to waste?
I'd like clarification as to what that 80% efficiency consists of. The theoretical efficiency of silicon in sunlight is 30%. A cascade of semiconductors can and do do better than that. Sunlight can be converted to heat at 100% efficiency but heat to useful work is limited by the carnot cycle.
In the quoted Ohio State material, the efficiency consists of vaporware. The quote makes that pretty clear, so one can safely ignore the breathless prose in the full article, which may have more to do with grantsmanship than with science. Complex "plastic" materials tend not to last very long under sunlight, which is a rather unfortunate property for solar cells. It may be a long time before that little problem is usefully solved.
However, the 'Carnot' efficiency is controlled by the temperature ratio, and the effective temperature of sunlight is 6000K. So 'Carnot' is not the limiting issue until one gets to about 95%. Issues with materials set the practical limits - for example, it would be a tad difficult to construct a Stirling engine with the hot side at 6000K. For solar cells, the issues are more complicated. Nevertheless one can't say 80% or so is impossible for the cells. Whether it happens in a useful way - as opposed to the infinite number of interesting but non-useful ways that produce an endless stream of ephemeral breathless press releases - and whether that happens within the lifetime of those reading this now in 2008 - now those are other questions.
I've lost my usual link that shows a stack of effects starting with multijunction and including recovering energy from hot electrons. But, this link seems to cover the issues in more detail starting around slide 43: http://www.ncp.edu.pk/docs/iscp/Alternate_Energy_Paths_through_nanotechn...
Chris
Here is a more in-depth write up on the technology:
http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/10/ohio-state-has-solar-power-breakthrough...
Oligothiophenes incorporating MM quadruple bonds have been prepared from the reactions between Mo2(TiPB)4 (TiPB = 2,4,6-triisopropyl benzoate) and 3′,4′-dihexyl-2,2′-:5′,2″-terthiophene-5,5″-dicarboxylic acid. The oligomers of empirical formula Mo2(TiPB)2(O2C(Th)-C4(n-hexyl)2S-(Th)CO2) are soluble in THF and form thin films with spin-coating (Th = thiophene). The reactions between Mo2(TiPB)4 and 2-thienylcarboxylic acid (Th-H), 2,2′-bithiophene-5-carboxylic acid (BTh-H), and (2,2′:5′,2″-terthiophene)-5-carboxylic acid (TTh-H) yield compounds of formula trans-Mo2(TiPB)2L2, where L = Th, BTh, and TTh (the corresponding thienylcarboxylate), and these compounds are considered as models for the aforementioned oligomers. In all cases, the thienyl groups are substituted or coupled at the 2,5 positions. Based on the x-ray analysis, the molecular structure of trans-Mo2(TiPB)2(BTh)2 reveals an extended Lπ-M2δ-Lπ conjugation. Calculations of the electronic structures on model compounds, in which the TiPB are substituted by formate ligands, reveal that the HOMO is mainly attributed to the M2δ orbital, which is stabilized by back-bonding to one of the thienylcarboxylate π* combinations, and the LUMO is an in-phase combination of the thienylcarboxylate π* orbitals. The compounds and the oligomers are intensely colored due to M2δ–thienyl carboxylate π* charge transfer transitions that fall in the visible region of the spectrum. For the molybdenum complexes and their oligomers, the photophysical properties have been studied by steady-state absorption spectroscopy and emission spectroscopy, together with time-resolved emission and transient absorption for the determination of relaxation dynamics. Remarkably, THF solutions the molybdenum complexes show room-temperature dual emission, fluorescence and phosphorescence, originating mainly from 1MLCT and 3MM(δδ*) states, respectively. With increasing number of thienyl rings from 1 to 3, the observed lifetimes of the 1MLCT state increase from 4 to 12 ps, while the phosphorescence lifetimes are ≈80 μs. The oligomers show similar photophysical properties as the corresponding monomers in THF but have notably longer-lived triplet states, ≈200 μs in thin films. These results, when compared with metallated oligothiophenes of the later transition elements, reveal that M2δ–thienyl π conjugation leads to a very small energy gap between the 1MLCT and 3MLCT states of <0.6 eV.
Makes perfect sense to me.
Now they just need to perfect high temperature superconductors and we'll be set.
There has been a lot of progress raising the critical temperature of superconductors.
Recent announcement of 200K superconductor (dry ice temperature)
http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/10/superconductor-with-critical.html
Several new classes of high temperature superconductors found this year.
Use of the older superconducting wire for New York Utility project.
http://spectrum.ieee.org/jul08/6428
Large superconducting wind turbine design sales
http://www.azom.com/news.asp?newsID=14042
I think I speak for many of us when I say: Huh?
You certainly speak for me! - some here may be able to follow the reasoning though, and the quoted link also gives a layman's explanation, so it seems worthwhile linking.
If you are referring to the superconductors. There is progress on several fronts.
1. Higher temperatures, means less expensive and less complicated cooling to make them work. They are becoming cheaper and easier to use.
2. There are new entirely new kinds of materials that have been found to be superconducting. This is good for several reasons. The first is that scientists have four or six different kinds of superconductors instead of just two then they have more comparisons of different mechanisms that they can make to figure out the underlying nature of what is going on. That can be a faster path to comprehensive and correct theories and models of superconducting processes. The discovery of new and better superconductors becomes less guessing and trial and error. Optimal materials can then be designed. Optimal materials could be room temperature superconductors or ones with other properties optimized.
3. The superconductors that are available and in commercial production now are being used at a pilot utility plant. The wire is being used for better engines (for the Navy and commercialization around 2010). Plus they are being used to increase the efficiency and reduce the weight of wind turbines. Thus some billions of kwh will be saved from the greater efficiency.
====
For the Ohio solar material, they are getting some better response across the visible spectrum and the charges are grouping together and lasting a lot longer. With longer lasting charges they can figure out how to separate them better and it should be straight forward to increase the efficiency of any solar cells based on the new material. Longer lasting charges last thousands of times longer. So metaphorically it is like the time when you could harvest of good fruit used to be an hour, now they have a few months to get the fruit. So a higher percentage could be obtained. Higher percentage is efficiency and the fruit are the electrons or electricity.
I am not sure the Ohio solar material is the best bet, because while more solar efficiency is good that does not necessarily translate into lower cost solar power. But there can be niche applications where high solar efficiency is the most important thing.
What's so remarkable about that? I do it all the time. Well, after a couple of beers at least.
If this is all based on quadruple bonds, what happens to the claimed efficiency if the bond market does collapse?
I wish PV was cheaper.
Hello TODers,
Is this just another piece of evidence of the genetic assertion of Hans Selye's General Adaptation Syndrome [GAS]** as we go postPeak?
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,441921,00.html
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Study: Middle-Age Whites Driving Up U.S. Suicide Rate
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**Google Search Result weblink below for any interested TOD newbies on GAS:
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=Hans+Selye%27s+General+Adaptation+S...
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
It's hard to miss the knowing smirk inherent in much of NYT reporting. Perhaps the only reason to mention the 'Checkbook Diplomacy, Intimidation and ultimate Reckoning' coming due for these upstart oil-producers, without necessarily including our own (USA's) similar role in that play is that the NY Times doesn't reckon that we get the same reckoning, or maybe even a worse one.
I remember GW Bush telling nations who might demur at joining our coalition for Iraq that they run the risk of becoming increasingly isolated on the world stage.. I drew a cartoon of him announcing this warning to the world, speaking from a little and shrinking desert island. Tap, Tap.. "Hey, is this thing on?"
"...member states that were only interested in keeping the price high had already cut production."
paraphrasing from blazing saddles: that is the most impressive display of authentic global crude oil gibberish i have ever heard
Hello TODers,
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081021/ap_on_bi_ge/fed_credit_crunch
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Fed to buy commercial paper from mutual funds
..Money market mutual funds have been under pressure as skittish investors demand withdrawals...
-----------------------
I hope those giant wads of cash are being invested in real asset biosolar goods. Have you hugged your bag of NPK today?
Any guesses on when banks will refuse to give anything of value in exchange for a US Savings Bond?
The owners of these bonds are the most conservative investors in the US. If I was the poor bank employee that had to tell these people that their bonds were now worthless: I would want an armed policeman to be ready to protect me.
Signs of the times?
China Raises Export Rebates for Textiles, Toys as Growth Slows
For car dealers, tight credit is fueling a 'catastrophe'
Homeless numbers 'alarming'
White supremacists target middle America
Suicide on the rise for middle-aged whites
Bank bail-out exceeds GDP of United Arab Emirates
Nobody knows, except every reader of Dimitry Orlov.
I'm already approved for a car loan (was not a problem finding a decent offer), but won't be buying a car until I sell my current one.
We're downsizing, and of course bigger vehicles aren't selling in the US right now.
I did visit a Nissan dealer, and the salesperson seemed very confident that they would not go below MSRP. I didn't bother starting to negotiate, I can wait.
Growth in U.S. currency = paper bills + metal coins (Wikipedia).
In this new frontier of capital infusions, what will happen if to the value of the dollar if people will start to liquidate their T-bill funds? How much credit can Washington extend without cutting into the value of the dollar?
I notice the slope is decreasing throughout 2007 and was nearly flat for several months in 2006 (you have to go back to the wikipedia article to get that). I wonder what that means?
*edit* Here's the year on year change:
Downslope on average this decade.
Stab in the dark: Fewer people are using paper/metal money and are using their check cards instead. Think about it: I'd bet that most people here have their payroll direct deposited to their accounts, pay their bills using checks, and use check cards for many of their purchases. The need to have physical cash for most transactions has gone away... The concept of money has been abstracted to being just numbers in a bank computer nowadays.
And, that in itself is a damn scary concept, hey?
I think even checks are fading away. At least here in the U.S., check cards (debit cards) do not have the same fraud protection that credit cards do. For that reason, I use credit cards for everything I can. (Well, that and the "cash back" and other incentives offered.)
I use very little paper money. Groceries, gas, and many of my bills are paid via credit card. The credit cards are paid via electronic fund transfer (free online billpaying). You can set it up to pay automatically, so you don't have to worry about late fees, etc., even you forget, are on vacation, or whatever.
Good guesses. Here's the quote from the wiki:
If I read that correctly, M0 (or "currency" in this plot) ought to include electronic assets because it can be exchanged for physical currency.
Could it be that we really are living more of our lives on credit? You'd think that would be a transient decrease though because we have to pay interest on that credit later on. I knew lots of people who refinanced their mortgages in order to get access to some of their equity. But I don't know how mortgage refinancing would show up in currency supply. My dim understanding of economics is failing me here.
The drop in M0 seems to correspond with when credit card use really took off. That is, grocery stores and McDonald's started taking them.
The chart on top shows the gross currency supply having grown 15X since the country went off the gold standard in the 1970's during the Nixon administration. People keep more of it in their wallets than they used to, some of it is in cash registers, some of it is in vaults, some of it hidden in homes.
The chart below the green Wiki chart seemed to indicate the change in currency relative to other money supply measures.
Can remember when a telephone call cost a dime. A six pack of coke cost 69 cents in 1972. A pack of cigarettes cost about 35 cents on a military base in the early 70's. A gallon of gas was 34 cents in 1970. The cost of a first class stamp was 6 cents. There were sales such as five loaves of bread for a dollar. The Federal Debt was 380 billion dollars. Federal spending was 195 billion dollars. The dow was at about 700.
http://www.1970sflashback.com/1970/ECONOMY.asp
Back to my previous comment:
You might be right here... People went to the bank, took out a home equity loan on the appreciated value of their homes, and then could turn around and use this 'created' money (which is exactly what it is) to pay off their debts.
Of course, not learning their lessons, a lot of people then racked up more debt...
Same with credit cards. Folks spent money that was 'created' by the simple use of their card.
Great analogy... I live on a small island (with 9 of my friends)with a total money supply of $1000. My hut is worth $100. I take out an $80 mortgage on my hut, and now spend that money on more coconut trees. Now, because I created this debt, there is $1080 running around the island. Now, lets say there is a computer on the island that keeps track of this in accounts... I could just transfer my 'money' to the person I bought the coconut trees from. The physical supply hasn't changed ($1000), but the total supply ($1000 + $80) has gone up.
Mortgage refinancing where the homeowner gets money out of the deal definitely adds to money supply. Typically these kinds of refinancings result in an increase (initially) in demand deposits--part of M1.
The measure for money supply that I most often use is M2. It doesn't usually matter how much cash there is compared to demand deposits, because they are nearly perfect substitutes for most purchases. If, however, people drain their checking accounts (demand deposits) and hoard cash, this reduces banks' excess reserves and hence their ability to lend and hence also reduces M1 and all the other M's as well.
Sailorman: can you (or anybody) explain why checking and savings accounts are separated (between M1 and M2)? It is extremely easy to transfer money between such accounts, and even happens automatically in some cases (overdraft).
The easiest and truest explanation for what is included in the various M's is "history." From time to time, these definitions change. For example, back when I was in school travellers' checks were not included in M1. Now they are.
You think your savings account is perfectly liquid and that you can sweep money out of it into your checking account any time you want to. Wrong! If you look at the fine print of your savings account agreement the bank is not obligated to pay back your money on demand. They can hold it for thirty days (or some other short time period) if they want to. Now banks almost never do delay paying you out M1 money from your savings account, but they have the legal right to do so.
Pull up to the gas pump. Swipe card. Cahh Ching. Money is recorded into the station's account. A debit (IOU) with interest is recorded into our account. Mo' money has been made.
No interest for me. I pay it off at the end of the month. (But I do get to use the money free for that month, which is also a consideration.)
So, does that created money vanish when I pay it all off at the end of the month?
Yes, the money created by increasing debt vanishes when that debt is paid off. If everyone paid off the balances on their credit cards there would be a huge reduction in debt and in M1--proabably enough to set off a deflation.
A credit card is not money; it is instant credit. But because our monetary system is linked to credit flows, expanding or contracting the amount of debt in the system has a strong effect on M1.
Leanan,
You are correct to understand that money is destroyed (just as easily as it is created out of thin air) when people pay off their IOU's (debts). The Federal Reserve can destroy money in the circulating money supply by canceling debt (i.e. prematurely calling in and paying off Treasury notes).
However, things are not that simple, even in your isolated case where you always, always pay off that credit card bill at the end of the month and thus feel that you have not incurred an interest debt.
Say the gas station owner takes his day's receipts and deposits them in his bank. Now the bank holds the just-created money. The bank can lend out part of that temporarily held money to some other person who does incur debt for interest as well as for the principle. (Look up fractional reserve banking --but you probably already know all about it.) So more money (and more debt) is usually created out of the money you just created even though you personally pay off your debts rapidly.
Multiply your one personal transaction by millions of people doing the same every day and you get the bigger step back picture of how our civilization functions. Also realize that sooner or later most people fall into the trap of not being able to pay off their credit cards --due to illness or whatever. The credit card companies are not stupid. They know they will get you sooner or later.
_______________________
Oh sailorman, sailorman, where hath thou been? Long time no see you around these digs. Hopefully all has been well with you. Glad to see you are at least lurking if not treating us to your oft sage insights.
I notice from the story above the Uk has the same problem as the US with respect to adding renewables to the grid:
Centrica Urges U.K. Grid Upgrade to Meet Green Target (Update1)
With all of the financial issues facing the UK, the US, and other countries, I wonder how much of this will actually get done.
France to inject 10.5 billion euros in six banks
Bonus time for the exects.
http://www.chinastakes.com/story.aspx?id=744
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China to Apply More Protectionism in Agricultural
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Makes postPeak sense to me as globalization starts to vastly decline: any country's national security has to be fundamentally rooted on their food security.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/164878
It sounds like Douglas Adams' "Shoe-store event horizon."
Gail, thanks for responding to my question 19th regarding oilwatch monthly.
If you are reading Rembrandt/Gail; did you miss out / or are stalling on the sep/oct reports becasue there are some interesting developments? If you want to keep it all under wraps, then please ignore my inquisition!
Marco.
It will be up Thursday on the main board--may be up sooner in Europe.
http://deltafarmpress.com/rice/balwin-column-1021/
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Promising year went wrong in too many places
...The next time you decide to criticize a farmer you had better go find one to hug instead...
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"You do it with the solar power satellite (SPS), a concept invented by Peter Glaser in 1968. The idea is simple: You build large assemblages of solar cells in space, where they convert sunlight into electricity and beam it to receiving stations on the ground."
Like the space elevator, fusion reactor, and mass-market hydrogen-powered vehicles, the idea may be simple but the execution in the real world is still far-fetched fantasy. One obvious problem is that beamed energy satellites will make good weapons.
if someone would just beam me up about a Gb of oil i would be happy happy.
The power beamed back to earth is deliberately somewhat diffuse in all the proposals I've seen to date.
More to the point, a powersat in geosynchronous orbit will make an excellent sitting-duck target for a missile. Talk about putting all your eggs in one very fragile basket...
Geosynch orbits are ~25,000 miles up. It'd be pretty hard to hit something THAT high up...
...But, satellites do fail on their own routinely. It would be EXTREMELY difficult to repair this if something happened... this is WELL out of the range of the Space Shuttle, the ISS, and every other manned spacecraft (with the exception of the lunar modules) ever built.
Just ONE load of pea gravel, launched into an orbit intersecting the geostationary orbit, would render the entire geostationary orbital band unusable.
We have an awful lot of "Achille's Tendons" in our advanced technological society. I am not the only one who is aware of our vulnerabilities.
"One obvious problem is that beamed energy satellites will make good weapons."
Actually they won't, but people will still think they will, which is as important. The beam becomes quite diffuse.
The obvious problem is that SPS collect 6 times more sunlight but putting the satellites into space costs 40 times more than building facilities on the ground. Then there's the costs of operating a plant 22,000 miles away... The only people eager for SPS appear to the space industry, who are desperate for applications beyond comms and GPS satellites, and the US military, who want to beam power anywhere in the world so they can continue their imperial domination.
They might make for good targets then?
Use low earth orbit satellites or middle earth orbit. The solar satellites would be at 500-1000miles up. They would not be at 22,000 mile geosynch. Therefore less beam spread because they are 20-40 times closer. The receiving stations can be a lot smaller. As the satellites move in orbit they point at a new receiving station on the ground.
The big advantage is that you would not need many square mile size receiving station on the ground and the system could be scaled down from gigawatt size for initial deployment.
===
If you have any powerful technology or capability you will be able to make good and/or better weapons. If you have good cheap access to space then you could go to asteroids (asteroid belt or near earth) and start pushing a rock to fall on a earth based opponent.
Thus fusion reactor, really good lasers (for laser launch and propulsion) and space elevators or anything that can be used for really useful space capability leads to more powerful weapons.
But without better technology you cannot solve the really hard problems that we have now. Which would eventually lead to the doomer situation popular at TOD which leads to billions of deaths.
===
The fact that knives can cut and kill is not a reason not to develop and use knives.
The fact that fire can kill and burn is not a reason not to develop and control the use of fire.
The fact that agriculture can enable tens to hundreds of times more population which can lead to bigger armies is not a reason not to develop agriculture.
Have these SPS advocates ever explained how much energy is needed to lift all this hardware just to low earth orbit. Current rockets use ten pounds of fuel to lift one pound in to orbit. This doesn't include the embodied energy in the hardware. These SPS nuts won't acknowledge that storing solar thermal energy underground for long periods is very cheap.
The most interesting bit from that article about survivalism:
I wonder what corporation that was. Boeing? Microsoft?
My guess would be Blackwater Security. :(
Puget Sound Power and Light, eh, now Puget Sound Energy. Kidding.
"Will the last one to leave Seattle please turn off the lights"
Russia must use FX reserves cautiously-Kudrin
It will be interesting to see which sectors of the economy the Russian government decides to bail out.
It says that about 2/3 of the applications for part of its $50 billion bailout are from banks and the other 1/3 are from companies.
If it leans more towards bailing out companies, this would indicate priorities exactly opposite to those of the United States, where 100% of the bailouts have been for the financial sector.
Any bets that Russia will bail out the oil, mining and other critical sectors and let the banks bite the big one?
We may now see the difference between a government where the politicians serve at the discretion of the financiers, and one where the financiers serve at the discretion of the politicians.
No more Dollars left to recycle seems to me. What about to sell all these Treasury Bonds which are going to tank anyway?
The Fed is loaning Money market funds $540 billion to help them with redemptions - all this now is going on $6+ trillion of central bank efforts to stop the delveraging.
Who should pay that apart from money printing? The foreigners? The BRIC countries? The middle east with these 70$ oil prices?
US T-bonds are going to collapse.
Yes, foreigners will pay. The US will hold a gun to their heads to get them to do so - just like in a mafia protection racket.
No, I don't think U.S. Treasury bonds are going to collapse. Why not? Because the Fed is ready, willing, and able to buy any amount of Treasuries you care to name. The power of the Fed combined with the willingess of the federal government to borrow means the ability to print money is unlimited, which is one reason that I rate the chance of deflation as only 50%.
If people start cashing in their T-bills faster than the government can sell new ones, and the gross tax receipts less government expenditures are not enough to buy back the T-bills, then you might get Zimbabweism.
I expect increasing inflation. What I am uncertain about is whether there will first be a deflation. I think double digit inflation is likelier than hyperinflation, for at least the next ten years. As part of an economic collapse, hyperinflation is fairly likely, but I'm not expecting collapse before 2020. My likliest scenario is what Leanan and Greer call the "slow squeeze."
We should protect ourselves from both the risks of deflation and the risks of inflation; nobody knows the future. Unfortunately, what protects you from deflation (keeping your assets in M1) is fully exposing you to inflation risks. The best inflation hedges (real estate, gold and silver, energy stocks) will do poorly in times of deflation. I like TIPs, Treasury Inflation Protected securities.
Re: Study: California energy efficiency pays off
I just completed work on a proposal to upgrade the common area lighting of a large condominium complex that utilizes a mix of linear fluorescent, 100-watt long-life A19 incandescents and 75-watt halogen PAR30s, virtually all of which operate 24-hours a day.
Our cost of swapping out a 100-watt incandescent for a 20-watt CFL is about $6.50 and at $0.11 per kWh, the simple pay back in energy savings is approximately one month (in this case, the Province and provincial utility is picking-up 80% of the tab, so the actual pay back for the client is less than a week). If the utility were to pay 100% of the cost, this "new" capacity would come in at about $80.00 per kW, the O&M costs would be effectively nill and it could be brought online in as little as a week. The first-year cost per kWh saved is slightly less than one cent ($0.00928/kWh), a fraction of what it would cost to generate these same kWhs by burning coal or natural gas. In addition, there's 100% capacity factor (no unexpected outages or scheduled maintenance), it will be available during peak times when it's most needed, the financial and regulatory risks are negligible and the social and environmental impacts are extremely low. Although there's always the possibility of "snap back" (i.e., the building owner replacing the CFL at the end of its life with an incandescent lamp), the likelihood of this happening is, generally speaking, fairly small.
Cheers,
Paul
Sometimes, it's very helpful to rank solutions to reducing FF energy consumption and see where everything kind of lies... Surprisingly enough, there is a decent arsenal of silver BB's at our disposal-
Low hanging fruit (common technology):
Flourescent bulbs.
Geothermal heating/cooling.
Solar Water heater.
Electric ranges/electric heat/etc.(low hanging in the context that electricity/heat can be generated from sources other than gas/coal/etc.)
Microwave ovens for cooking (less energy to heat with microwave than stoves/ovens)
Insulated windows.
Home Insulation.
Wood/pellet burning stoves.
Hydroelectric energy.
Energy Star Appliances.
Medium hanging fruit (somewhat uncommon technology):
Tankless water heaters.
Solar panels/power.
Motion detection for lighting.
Wind energy.
Nuclear Energy.
Hybrid Electric Cars.
High efficiency power plants.
High hanging fruit (rarely used technology):
High Temperature Superconductors (i.e. nitrogen cooled)
Aerogels (insulation).
Tide energy.
Above the tree (Currently unproven or unprofitable technology):
Fully electric cars.
Fusion.
Room temperature superconductors.
Ocean Current electric generation.
Orbial Solar Power stations.
Take a peek at the low hanging fruit... Quite a bit there for all of us.
Somewhere between low and medium (common elsewhere, rare in USA) is electrified railroads and Urban Rail.
Good concept though !
Best Hopes,
Alan
I'd say its somewhere between low and high. There are places where the cost/benifit ratio is very good and its an easily adapted technology for mitigating fossil fuel use; Best cases for growth I would guess would be in developing regions that dont allready have installed highway infrastructure that you're trying to compete with. In the much of the US I strongly suspect for decades its going to be a novelty project for high minded urban centers that still have questionable cost/benifit ratios.
What about white roofs and pavement which would reduce the heat island effect and thereby cut cooling energy demand.
above the tree? well thats kind of generic.. i would put the orbital power stations in orbit above the tree if your using hight as a difficulty measurement.
Actually, how about skipping almost all electrical appliances altogether?
My house:
no vacuum cleaner---instead I use a broom (well, several)
no elect. egg beater---- we use a wisk & gain muscle power
no clothes dryer -----clothes drying racks and lines
no blender---a pestle & mortar
no dishwasher---it's me!
etc. no appliances whatsoever, actually, except a small toaster oven.
For cakes and bread, I have a cast iron doughnut shaped dutch oven (highly recommended!!) It goes on top of the stove. It never breaks and takes up hardly any space.
My idea was to never have to buy anything over again, to never have to pay lots of money for dust-gathering ugly electric appliances. Of course, the companies that make these things create a lot of pollution and CO2 and that was also a turnoff...
My ambition is to one day ditch the washing machine, refrigerator and the horrible TV. I do like the Internet, so it will be the last to go!
If my job will go, due to a decline in students, then I'll have time to wash things by hand.
I suspect that the simpler lifestyles in the past allowed people to avoid needing a refrigerator. I lived in a Japanese farmhouse that was built before refrigerators were invented and I studied the little north-facing "cold shelf" that was there. And I think they didn't put a lot of extra leftovers and meaty, or dairy items there ever because they never had them! Also a root cellar might work in some climates.
My two kids will not have time to watch TV if they have to forage for food or work for a living so maybe there is hope that we won't buy another one when this one breaks.
Half a million barrels still off line in GOM
Hurricane Gustav/Hurricane Ike Activity Statistics Update – October 21, 2008
Three weeks into October and we still have half a million barrels shut in in the Gulf of Mexico. And it don't seem to be coming on line very fast. That is only about two thousand fewer barrels than was off line just one week ago.
Ron Patterson
Ron,
Maybe they are not in a hurry to bring them back online with prices so depressed.
Possibly. Storage in place again(see post below)..hmmm...maybe.
Sounds like OPEC is considering the same thing.
Why trade good oil for 10 "FIAT-US-past-its-prime-petrocurrency-in-the-midst-of-a-financial-crisis" cents a cup?
It's just amusing: Kerkorian Cuts Ford Stake, May Exit as Bet Collapses.
I was always wondering what he was doing with its GM, Ford and Chrysler holdings.
Now he has the latest HUGE loss.
Typically for a very old man, who tries to stay somewhat attractive. He does not retire... no he is on the monitor 24 hours.
Poor man, nothing is left, just debts. Because he was too greedy and he was the textbook case of believing in this "american dream".
American dream means to be as reach as is it possible.
Seems a stretch to assign his losses to his age. There are many people of all ages losing a lot of money right now.
When he bought into Ford, I thought, "well, he hasn't been reading the Oil Drum I guess or he wouldn't have made such a dumb move!" He's lost over $700 billion on this I heard!
I saw this picture from elsewhere on the oil drum, and I gotta ask a question...
Is the guy on the right really smoking a cigarette?
I would assume it is NOT a cig, but a Doobie. Why in the world would he not have a native plant, instead of a cultivated one?
Hopefully the idiots in Washington will see the light now, and legalize ALL drugs. Stop pissing away my money on useless crap. Let the Darwinian Laws of Nature prevail.
Everyone knows cigarettes are bad for your health. He's smoking a joint.
And, cigarettes appear to be bad for the health of aircraft carriers: USS Washington fire blamed on lax standards.
Loose butts sink ships...
-best,
Wolf
Boom to Bust in the Barnett Shale (at least in regard to leasing)
A local TV station just had a story about mass layoffs of landmen, as leasing in the Barnett Shale Play has pretty much ground to a halt.
I read a few articles that indicated that the best leases in the Barnett Shale had been taken. I've suspected that everyone might just move on to another shale play to get the best parts and Barnett will languish until its worst parts look good.
http://www.star-telegram.com/804/story/929570.html
http://startelegram.typepad.com/barnett_shale/
rumor is that the same is happening in the bakken oil play.
It is evident to most of us that Commodities are way oversold (and undervalued)...here is a story of storage in place in Canada.
Miners laid off as nickel boom ends
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/521257
This certainly does not help on the supply side.
Now, in your mindseye, replace nickel with Grain/Corn/Soybeans and Mine with Farm. Or commodity/producer of your choice.
I seriously wonder how many farmers will plant as much (or at all) with Wheat at 3.00/bu or Corn at 4.00/bushel.
Oil is still $70 a barrel when we are clinging to financial life...that itself should indicate there is a supply problem.
And the sad thing is...that is still cheap at 10 cents a cup.
I hope y'all have started putting by something for the future.
I completely agree. Commodities have now gone from a demand side story to a supply side. I see 2010-2011 as a real crunch time for oil as we come out of this and find even lesser oil supply.
The situation in Mexico and Venezeula is going to be at the forefront of this. With Mexico spending most of its money on domestic affairs and not on oil investments and Venezeual using a $120 budget just to stay afloat we are going to be damned if we go into a depression and damned if we dont.
The mining cycle has always been boom to bust to boom again. They will have to close the marginal mines with the lower grade ores first. In the next boom they might bring them back again. Some mines can make profits at low metal prices, else they will all close.
The Canadian tar sands areas of Athabasca-Cold River-Peace River are now producing about 1.3 million barrels a day, making it the largest producing heavy oil field in the world. That figure may double within ten years if demand will be high enough.
The Orinoco heavy oil belt has a higher EROEI per project than Athabascan SAGD projects, but production is limited by socio-economic factors.
Regarding agriculture today:
Several areas of TOD have lately engaged in the subject of griculture.
Tontoneila speaks often of these topics as regards fertilizer and its rapidly escalating costs.His posts have a bit of hysteria to them IMO.
Right now as I type this some here in my area have finished the harvest and the combines are back in the shed. Many are about half way finished.
Right now also plans are in place for next years crop season and decisions are being made. Wheat might be sowed or not.Fertilizer deals might be struck. Seed might be analyzed as to cost. A lot might depend on the current market.
Wheat here is a breakeven many times. So unless the price is good many will simply not plant Soft Red Winter Wheat.
There are many variables and most all of the posters here on TOD are not conversant with these issues as it affects the farming 'communities'.
A lot of what is posted on TOD just seems to get ignored or shucked aside. Or else we once more are diverted into the arenas of solar power,light rail,nuculear generation, wind power and the ubiquitous discourses on PHEV or whatever.
It for sure that what happens in ag will reflect across most all areas but once more be disregarded until such time as a real emergency occurs.
I know that sounds far fetched as ag and its products derived have been completely discounted.
The tremendous cost runup for 'inputs' is going to be a very large factor in next years crops and even in near plantings for wheat. I didn't believe $1000/ton of anhydrous until I checked myself. Amazing.It used to be a cheap method of putting down N.
Two years ago I drove 'nurse' trucks for a major ag chem business that covers huge areas in my location. We had one or two semis with dump trailers constantly running from the barges on the lakes to the storage sheds where I was constantly all day long and weekends too filling my nurse truck to keep the monster JD spreaders and TerraGators running.We were running about 7 nurse trucks constantly. They hardly ever stopped. The amounts of fertilizer to this country boy as I saw it being scattered was breathtaking.
Add to this lime and also a huge amount of crop spraying by the same company fed by more nurse water/chemical trucks.
Unless one has up close seen this activity then its all hidden to them and they never consider such.
What I am saying is that without these inputs you simply will NOT have a crop. Period.
Any failure in this chain , and its very much time related, and you will have big problems.
The rapidly increasing costs of N,P,K...chemical spraying, seed costs,equipment costs, manpower costs and finally land rent/costs.
All increasing almost always. There will IMO be an end to this game eventually. Speak about gardens,compost teas and susainable living as you wish. Without these intensive crops there will just be enormous problems such as to make the current fiscal crisis seem like a game of tiddlywinks.
It may be hidden from view of most of the jolly,happy shining faces of the motoring public but nonetheless it is there and not going away.
I suggest it will be the next in the chain of crisis events. The formulas are very simple. Cost of inputs vs price on the CBOT. How one plays the futures and contracts can play a role as well. On site storage vs paying the graineries. Its not rocket science.
We need more guest posts from those such as the one the other day by the soil microbiologist. We need input and data in order to prepare for what might be coming.
Econ-nitz,doomers,etc...all the name calling won't mean much then. Its somehow taken for granted since such a small percentage engage in it.I notice there is a dearth of farmers or those closely associated with same on TOD.
I decided to go ahead and post this even if it garners few replies. I will have done my part anyway. The rest of this fall I have several large downed(Ike) oak trees to saw into firewood. Enough to last me at least two years. At least while there is gas and oil for my saws(4 of them). At the last farm auction I luckily picked up four more axes for my present collection of about 10 or so and my 3 two man crosscut saws.A good double-bit axe might be very necessary in a future that appears to be becoming very cloudy of late.
I have 4 wood heaters and looking for a old time wood fired range.I intend to use a very small amount of electrical power.
Airdale-my tomato seeds are fermenting out in the barn..I'm happy
Yes, Yes...hug your farmer...everyone.
The coming food crisis will make everything pale in contrast. How far away it is...hard to say...but within the next ten, IMO.
BTW, any pointers for making tomato seed? I have been learning seed saving...but haven't tackled tomatos yet.
Take non-hybrid tomato seeds (if you grew heritage tomatoes those will be non-hybrid).
Scoop out the seeds and some of the juices. Put in a container with a couple tablespoons of water. Leave to ferment for 3-5 days. Scoop off the scum each day. Dry seeds on a paper towel. Store in an envelope after drying.
Airdale -- I count myself among the ranks of farmer/TOD reader.
Too many people think food comes from the supermarket.
Modern agriculture uses a lot of energy directly and indirectly. If this is disrupted production could drop drastically. As you point out one of the problems is that the operations are time dependent to a degree seldom found in industrial operations.
Harvest of corn in this area is late due to slow field drying of corn. This is made more severe due to the high price of fuel to dry the corn. Most farmers appear to be risking weather losses to avoid high artificial drying costs. An early snow could reduce yields substantialy on a local basis.
Not only to people think food comes from a supermarket, but they don't actually know what food is (or what is food). I brought a few dozen squash into the University and distributed among some of the students I worked with. A number of them were intrigued and said they had NEVER eaten squash. I can't imagine making it to college without ever having eaten squash-- that is a pretty basic food in this state. BUT it is not a convenience food-- there are no squash flavored Hot Pockets.
SMN-- there is a group called Rural Renewable Energy Allian ce http://www.rreal.org/ that is piloting grain drying using solar hot air. They invented the system, manufacture them in Backus MN-- I've toured their facilities twice and am very impressed with their talent, committment, and products. May be piloting that on our farm as well.
Airdale,
I finished fermenting and drying my tomato seeds last weekend. Have a huge tub of seeds saved for next spring. I'm hoping the vacuum packing seal-a- meal was a good idea....
Even if it seems sometimes like you're just screaming into the maelstrom, airdale, we're here, listening.
You have been absolutely right in your warnings - prescient, even - and I agree that talk of PV and hot-water heaters and the latest technofix geegaw is pathetic in its blindness to our real, imminent food problem.
We could forego our jobs and our activities for months, but if there is no soup kitchen, no bread line, then this won't be The Great Depression II, it will become The Great Dieoff I.
The article up top on Oregon humanure usage (http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/10/oregon_farmers_are_lovi...) is instructive because of the comments at the end - Most everyone is dead-set against it, and some back it up with a litany of horror stories:
www.sludgevictims.com
How is it that so many unsophisticated rural people in China and India manage to recycle their waste without getting poisoned or infected? Clearly, it's more a matter of attitudes than scientific smarts.
One thing's for certain: We'd better figure out our local, low-energy-input sources of N, P, & K ahead of time, and get the infrastructure in place before the crunch comes and it's too late.
The way it looks now, food shortages and price spikes could come to the US by the end of 2009.
Don't worry, Nelsone, the farmers will plant. That's what they do.
Somewhere, maybe 3, or 4 decades from now, we might run into a pretty serious fertilizer problem.
In the meantime, the farmers will plant, and keep their full-time jobs in town where they get 2/3 of their income. And, food will be plentiful. Just the way it is.
I'm getting the feeling...
that just as myself and many others here COMPLETELY MISSED the financial ramifications of early peak oil, that many too will completely miss...
The agricultural ramifications of peak oil, like Airdale says.
Their may never really be peak oil, without a financial system and without industrial agriculture...
Hello Airdale,
Thxs again as usual for your comments. I try to let my included weblinks do the talking vs me. As an admitted non-expert: I find great confusion even among the experts.
Recall earlier weblinks where in my back to back DB postings: a Purdue University agronomist stated I-NPK prices were still headed up, while a UBS fertilizer analyst projected just the opposite.
Then you have the UN FAO Fertilizer Forecast Report out to 2012 conflicting in some areas with the projections from the Fertilizer Institute, or the detailed reports from Bill Doyle's Potash of Saskatchewan [POT]. It is hard to tell who is telling the truth vs who is talking up his company's prospects going forward.
I am hoping that some TODer will go to the upcoming Fertilizer Conference in Nov. in Charleston, SC. I wonder if any keynote speaker there will bring up Peak Everything projections into I-NPK ramifications. If I could go: I would want to hear [Pentasul] Barry Clarke's speech on future sulfur forecasts the most of all.
Well, I read the entire offering of the TOD again today. Great stuff as usual. I sense a growing uneasyness about BAU among the group. Seems the bad news in a constant wavelength is taking its toll.Who wouldn't have a anticipated cresendo?
Ive also noticed some trolls who post (not contradictory objections) some increasingly antagonist comments. Its as if they recieve some type of endorphine rush from doing so.
I recall George Bailey's character in "Its a Wonderful Life". George Bailey had a angel, "Clarence"
...Clarence informs George that "Every time someone rings a bell, an angel gets their wings" Iam inclined to believe, that when someone pishaws the abundantly obvious, like PO, an angel gets their wings.
Cha-chingggg......cha-chingggg.....cha-chinggggg
Get these fools!....their handin out wings
Cha-chinggg....cha-chinggggg.....cha-chingggg
I wonder how many angels will get their wings this Christmas 2008?
Surely there are already many angels flying about the halls of AIG and Bear Sterns. Lehman angels, I'm sorry to say, are going to have to hitch a ride this season. No wings or parachutes for them. Obviously they were bad little angels and are getting what they had coming to them. That's just the way the Universe works.
(If you need a crash course on how the Universe works, click here.)

TODers;
Heres a little tid bit I found on youtube and wind power. It shows how wind power generation costs can be reduced substancialy. Please let me know your thoughts on this particular application and approach.
If its a pipe dream, not practical, pure and utter nonsense. Let me know....Thanks in advance.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFfhMR1uidg
Don't be afraid to hurt my TOD chat feelings, tell me what you really think, okay?
I'm no expert, but here are my initial thoughts:
1 Watt at 90 RPM is pretty useless. He says 90 RPM is not much, but that is actually pretty fast, and you can't do anything with one watt. Can't do much with claimed 15 watts either (@ 600 RPM which seems really fast to me).
Well that's not so far from 20 watts, 20 watts is what my internet setup draws. Wildblue Sat modem and laptop together. That could be quite a big help. Look to 3'd world groups bringing in solar, they bring lights, not much else and it has a huge effect on the culture, water pumping is next. Huge cistern, pump when you have power. A source of some power , even every other day is huge with culture changes. You need a different perspective than the normal USA 500kwh a month.
Don in Maine
http://blog.beliefnet.com/crunchycon/2008/10/the-mood-among-dallas-repub...
Rod Dreher: The mood among Dallas Republicans
Tuesday October 21, 2008
it's beginning to look a lot like a landslide.
An item on ABC this morning. Bush carried 30 Red States by an average of 14 percentage points in 2004. In those same 30 states Obama & McCain are currently tied.
However, Robert Kennedy, Jr. last night on MSNBC outlined how the new voting legislation that the GOP Congress passed, and which was signed by Bush, is doing a very good job of purging voters (predominantly Democratic voters) from the voting rolls.
Rolling Stone article on the topic:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/23638322/block_the_vote/print
My father is a conservative evangelical (the kind that likes James Dobson). Had lunch with him yesterday. He had recently read Obama's autobiography and was all aglow over several passages. In fact, he was a bit teary-eyed at one point.
I'm a cynical dude and can well imagine that book being carefully crafted to elicit exactly such a response.
But it's working.....McCain is done like dinner.
A NYT commentary yesterday, October Surprise, offered a similar view of McCain's chances, after an endorsement from Ken Adelman.
It's beginning to look like the election is about done, unless there is an even more "interesting" October Surprise.
E. Swanson
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN2235552820081022?rpc=44
what exactly would a jellyfish do to a nuclear power plant ?
Interesting, given the reported jellyfish blooms, caused by warming seas, overfishing, and pollution.