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119 comments on DrumBeat: October 26, 2008
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119 comments on DrumBeat: October 26, 2008
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- Europe on the brink of currency crisis meltdown - Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telegraph
Edited to remove excessive quoting, and add a link.
This story was discussed in yesterday's DrumBeat, and is featured in Gail's new post today.
Ok
This Telegraph article is based on the notion that none of the Eastern European and Asian economies are viable and will all default. Russian companies have taken out over $440 billion US in loans from western banks, this includes over $60 billion by Gazprom. Gazprom will not default on its debts and neither will the other companies that are servicing the Russian domestic market (real estate may have collapsed in the west but not in Russia, where mortgages are a novelty and the baseline demand is high due to inadequate existing stock). Unlike 1998, the Russian currency is not propped up with a pyramid scheme of government bonds and interest rates in the 150% range so there will be no repeat of the previous default scenario where the exchange rate went up by a factor of 10 in a few months as the pyramid collapsed. The easy borrowing days for Russian companies are over for now, but since the economy is not saturated in terms of development and not a debt driven bubble this is not going to translate into a collapse of domestic demand. I think the same thing applies to China in spite of its greater exposure via its highly developed export market (which Russia does not have).
Don't worry - it is just part of the building media crescendo to get
(1) the average person to sell their stocks, mutual funds, 401(k)s
(2) Above all to scare the people into not buying and placing a bid.
It's not illegal to yell "fire" in a theater....if it's on fire. Fear is a good motivating emotion when situations are dangerous.
Perhaps you can provide the solid fundamental basis for why you think the markets deserve a higher valuation?
Some other economies are giving cause for worry. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/art...
Friday AM, DJIA/S&P/Nasdaq futures limit down.
Friday 350PM E DJIA at -167. 4PM E at -312. Volume at almost
pre Holiday levels.
Friday Evening Futures Limit Down. Where they are today.
The only question left is how many times the US can pull this trick.
I suspect they will not be able to hold it up much longer. The nasdaq composite closed friday at a new closing low and hit a new intraday low. The IBD mutual fund index also closed at a new low. If things really get scary the bigger question may be what size mattress do we need for our money?
A smaller mattress all the time.