 | The Permanent Oil Crisis Conference in Amsterdam, January 21 & 22, 2009 | The Oil Drum: Europe | ASPO VII - first day |  |
100 comments on Will the UK Face a Natural Gas Crisis this Winter? (Part 1 of 2)
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
100 comments on Will the UK Face a Natural Gas Crisis this Winter? (Part 1 of 2)
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
User login
Personnel
Editors
Contributors
Peak Oil Primers
Archives
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- July 2009
- June 2009
- May 2009
- April 2009
- March 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- October 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
- July 2007
- June 2007
- May 2007
- April 2007
- March 2007
- February 2007
- January 2007
- December 2006
- November 2006
- October 2006
- September 2006
- August 2006
- July 2006
- June 2006
- May 2006
- April 2006
- March 2006
Vital Trivia
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
GAIA Host Collective
Rune,
Thanks for an informative post.
As a UK resident, I have my concerns about the turbulent future of natural gas in the UK.
We have become too reliant on this valuable resource in the last 40 years, and now with the North Sea in steep decline, we are going to lose this local access to a fuel source that we now depend on.
The future looks increasingly like a bidding war between Europeans for natural gas on the global market, from suppliers such as Qatar and Russia.
For clarification 1 therm is 100,000 BTU or about 29.3 kWh.
Most UK suppliers are selling gas this October for about 4.0p per kWh inclusive of standing charges and 5% VAT. Most UK householders will burn between 60 and 120kWh per winter's day - depending on the level of insulation and the outside temperature.
Even greater profits can be made for the utilities that convert this gas into electricity in CCGT power plants. However, in the event of a natural gas shortage, will these plants will be quickly taken off line and the gas reserved for heating usage?
If the day ahead price is roughly 2.2p /kWh and expected to rise, then we can only expect more sharp rises in the price that the domestic consumer pays.
I've hedged my bets by fitting a woodstove with boiler in addition to my condensing gas fired boiler.
What was the cheapest, most abundant fuel by far, only 3 or 4 years ago, gas is now no longer as attractive.
2020
2020Vision
Thanks!
Most countries on the Continental Europe have entered into long term supply agreements with Algeria, Norway and Russia. Most of the European market has not been liberalized.
The German energy company E.On Ruhrgas is the largest foreign owner in Russian Gazprom and by coincidence their stake of 6,4 % in Gazprom closely matches German nat gas imports from Russia relative to total Gazprom production.
In 2007 Germany imported 35 Gcm from Russia. 6,4 % of a total Gazprom production of 560 Gcm approximates 35 Gcm.
The Germans have always had a long term strategy for their energy supplies and there is one phrase they often revert to “security of energy supplies”.
I don’t have any detailed information on the priorities during a gas shortage. From what I have understood consumers with interruptible contracts will first be shut off.
If the shortage gap is not closed by this, then electric utilities could be next in line. What then happens could quickly develop into something very ugly, as the UK presently has small generating margins and could result in part of the grid going down (black outs).
I think you (and those around you) soon enough will appreciate the woodstove.
- Rune