Having to purchase petroleum products once or twice a year is a tough call for any homeowner to have to make.

This is a good reminder that "peak oil" does not mean "oil prices go one way - up" but rather it means "oil prices will be increasingly volatile."

Government should assist homeowners by (1) promoting energy efficiency to reduce demand (and exposure to price risk) and (2) establish some sort of hedging mechanism to smooth out prices for individual homeowners.

Having to purchase petroleum products once or twice a year is a tough call for any homeowner to have to make.

Essentially, the dealers and the homeowners are playing their own mini-hedge fund game. Neither of them have good information and the product is unstable. That's not a market; it's a casino.

Sometimes, I have to admit, when predictions are made, I can be just wrong.

It's way too early to say you are wrong.

Yes, the state should be doing a lot more to reduce demand. It should have been doing that for years now. And the state knew and did not. State energy policy is explicitly "Trust to the free market". Leaving aside the disaster that is for people who want to stay warm, it's also a really, really, really bad policy for a natural resources entity. Except for the people at the top who typically make out like the bandits they are - in this particular state FPL, Nestle, Casella come to mind. We're exporting low entropy and taking in crap. The heating season has hardly begun and one can smell wood smoke (and burning plastic) everywhere.

I'd be curious to see the EROEI on pellet manufacturing. The industry is no longer using waste wood, unless you expand the definition of waste wood to include forest where the size of trees is below what the paper industry wants. Mining the forest for wood pellets is no different than sucking oil out of the ground. King's Pines are not a renewable resource in any common sense.

I often hear people argue that forests now cover more of the North East than they did 150 years ago. True. But the trees are often weak scrubby things with much less emergy AND exergy. It won't take more than a few large pellet mills to mess up what's left of the forest industry. And of course, the wood is harvested, transported, milled and distributed courtesy of fossil energy on roads pounded to hell by ever-larger lumber trucks. Nor is there enough sunlight falling on Maine to cover much of the energy we use.

We need thinking along the lines of hard, enforceable, non-transferrable, carbon caps - caps that decline. The energy industries have to be redirected so that they are responsible for providing end results - eg cold milk, warm houses, transportation. Not simply sales of calories. I can dream, OK? Problem is, when I dream, that's not what I see; instead I see Easter Island.

cfm in Gray, ME

I'd be curious to see the EROEI on pellet manufacturing. The industry is no longer using waste wood, unless you expand the definition of waste wood to include forest where the size of trees is below what the paper industry wants. Mining the forest for wood pellets is no different than sucking oil out of the ground. King's Pines are not a renewable resource in any common sense.

Pellet manufacturing is not an energy creation process. Its a process for making fuels easier to handel, transport and burn. In the case of wood you start with any wood with no sand and preferably little bark, mill it, dry it and press it into pellets. The drying is usualy done with energy from burning, bark and residue unsited as pellet raw material. The biomass dominats the raw materials but a fair ammount of electricity is also used.

EROEI on forestry is a better question since the input form the sun counts for free. The Swedish studies I have seen are A ok but I am too lazy to dig thru them for citations. All Swedish forestry and related transports could be run with fishcer-tropsch diesel from gasified biomass from a fraction of the yearly yield of renewable forest resource.

The local hardware store here in my Maine town says people are "panic buying" pellets. They can't keep enough bags in stock.

I expect he'll have a fire sale in the Spring (as it were).

Hi Mike,

Pretty much the story in Nova Scotia.

See: http://novascotiabusinessjournal.com/index.cfm?sid=183504&sc=107

Cheers,
Paul

Pellet manufacturing is not an energy creation process.

Neither is drilling for oil. We still talk about energy return there. I'm particularly curious about how much energy goes into the drying.

the input form the sun counts for free.

And as usual, nature never gets paid. Not for the oil, not for the wood. But even solar energy is not free; it's being diverted from some other use. What was the number from the BBC recently, approx $7T per year "cost" to nature for what we are stripping from the forests? We're living off the built-up, stored concentrations of resources - stored by that solar energy and the forces it drives. It may only be a very small fraction, but we need to start thinking much more holistically.

cfm in Gray, ME

All Swedish forestry and related transports could be run with fishcer-tropsch diesel from gasified biomass from a fraction of the yearly yield of renewable forest resource.

Or partly by train like here in sweden http://www.branschnyheter.se/article23869.php For the people how do not understand swedish, It is a terminal for transporting timber by train and they expect it to be profitable in three to four years.

The rail is electrified so it could be run on almost anything. Will it save energy? Probably not now! where was two sawmills in the small village until just a few years ago but they are both closed now.
But it could be used to produce energy from wood with good eroei, they just have to use it in another way.

I looked seriously about setting up A wood pellet plant 2 years ago using wet wood chip from a log mill. Pulled out about a month before ordering equipment. Due to the supply chain being totaly dependant on fossil fuel and high power requirment to run the Plant. Grinding dry 20mm softwood wood chip to >3mm and pelleting into 6mm takes about 85-100Kwh of electricity. Chipping logs this goes up to 120-140Kwh Drying 50% humidity wood down to 10% using waste wood/bark uses up approx 20-30% of orignal energy in wood. This does not include energy used in loging/forwarding/trucking.
Pelleting ony works as a way for sawmills to get rid of ther waste sawdust if the previously were dumping it.It is a good substatution for oil burners, saves oil for better uses.
Fitting a wood Gassifacation boilet to new house. 91% efficient, air dryed wood (no need for all the processing add can cut the wood myself With chainsaw,an axe if things get bad)

Hi Rib,

When you note that grinding and chipping softwood into pellets requires 85 to 100 kWh and 120 to 140 kWh, respectively, is this per 40 lb bag?

Around these parts, good quality pellets such as Shaw's Eastern Embers run between $5.50 and $6.00 per 40 lb. bag (that is, if you can find any). This puts the cost of pellet heat at about $0.075 per kWh; by comparison, off-peak electric heat in Nova Scotia is $0.054 per kWh.

Cheers,
Paul

"Government should assist homeowners by (1) promoting energy efficiency to reduce demand (and exposure to price risk) and (2) establish some sort of hedging mechanism to smooth out prices for individual homeowners."

Why? Chances that the government will screw it up worse are more likely. See Barney Franks et al promotion of low income housing for fiscal dropouts. Lets all subsidize corn growing for ethanol. That will get us mid-west politicians re-elected. On and on and on.

The government is NOT the answer to problems and is often-as-not the cause of same problems.

The government is NOT the answer to problems and is often-as-not the cause of same problems.

This gov't is totally beholden to corporate interests. The crisis we are in is not the result of gov't action, but of the workings of unbridled capitalism. When this leads to disaster and crisis, the gov't steps in to rescue the interests and corporations it is most beholden too -- and those parties have their people right there in the gov't overseeing their interests, whether it be Cheney or Paulson.

Gov't is not gov't. Gov't can be used to promote interests -- either private or public, common interests. There is no such thing as no gov't, or less gov't. That's not possible anymore, and has not been for a long time. What is possible is to have a gov't that tries to look ahead, tries to foresee and uses its power to protect the interests of the majority and ios responsive to that majority. That's not what we have -- but it is what we need. People should oppose THE gov't, but not oppose gov't in general -- they need to take it back from the private interests that control it now. To disavow gov't is too walk away from that and guarantee that gov't will continue to remain in the hands of those who control it now -- continuing disaster.

This government? BS I have seen US governments in action for the last 50 years and they are ALL beholding to business and special interests (farming etc.). The talk may differ but the walk is the same.

Why haven't we had an energy policy for 50 years? We knew of peak oil in 1968. This is nothing new.

All true, but doesn't address my point.

Gov't is not gov't. Gov't can be used to promote interests -- either private or public, common interests. There is no such thing as no gov't, or less gov't. That's not possible anymore, and has not been for a long time. What is possible is to have a gov't that tries to look ahead, tries to foresee and uses its power to protect the interests of the majority and ios responsive to that majority. That's not what we have -- but it is what we need. People should oppose THE gov't, but not oppose gov't in general -- they need to take it back from the private interests that control it now. To disavow gov't is too walk away from that and guarantee that gov't will continue to remain in the hands of those who control it now -- continuing disaster.

It's funny how on a site like this - which predicts that nothing will help except returning America to what it was in 1905 (although there are articles here stating more like 1800 or even 300.000 BC* ie without any humans) comments like these are to be found.

The intrest of the majority has the problem that there's a fucking lot of majority. The only thing the majority's interested in is watchin tv on the new 500 inch plasma, a new cell phone every week and daily restaurant visits.

In other words, let's reduce energy to 1930 levels is nice. And the current "oh-no-co2" campaign is convincing people it's wise. However me (and you), and the majority are going to scream bloody murder once supplies are cut.

Lots of people will realise that a 50% cut in petroleum supply is going to fucking hurt, and they will lynch whoever's in the white house (if this guy isn't hurt by it himself, both barack's and maccain's heating bills are enormous on a warm summer's eve), for that last second of delay.

We all know "increasing efficiency" has yielded it's greatest fruits already. It can maybe cut our usage 10%, perhaps even 20%. But no more. So that type of policies is out. So you need the government to force people to "save energy".

What would "mandatory saving" policies entail ? Letting people starve ? Letting poeple freeze ? Letting people be left behind in the dark ?

That's exactly what "saving" policies entail. How exactly is cutting energy supply, even partly, better than the engineered famines comitted by the Soviets ?

The Gummint "should" do a lot of things.

The Gummint "could" do something if only they hadn't spent $700+BILLION on the credit crisis debacle. (When the money is going into the banks and disappearing straight into the vaults, and screw the people who it was supposed to actually help. [The money didn't have the purpose stamped on the bills so of course the banks are doing the "prudent™®©" thing with it {unlike the shaky loans they made. (They're not going to repeat THAT again, No SIR-EE-BOB!)}])

The Gummint should do what we, the people, tell it to do AND NOTHING ELSE.

Its when they mine ideas on their own that we get the shaft.

disappearing straight into the vaults

I think you mean disappearing into year end bonuses.